NFL Week 6 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 5 Record: 1-3-1 / Overall: 10-13-2 (40%)

I’m making a promise to you all right now.

I will NOT be giving you an under for the rest of the season.  I won’t do it!...

.

Ok, I might do it… But I don’t have one on the card this week.

Dolphins/Jets under 45.5 ended up just like the last time I gave an under.  An absolute blowout loss.  I don’t think anyone in the world thought the Jets were capable of putting a 40 spot on the Phins defense.  Bridgewater getting knocked out early made me love the bet more but Breece Hall and the Jets couldn’t be stopped.

Elsewhere in the 1 PM games we had a snooze fest in my Bucs/Falcons over 46 game.  However, late in the contest, the Falcons should have gotten the ball back with a chance to tie or win (the game AND our bet) but Brady got an egregious roughing the passer call to essentially end the game and put another L on the board.

We travel up to Cleveland (+2) where the line moved to +2.5 on Sunday where I bet it.  The Browns missed a FG late to win, losing 30-28 to LA.  For the sake of this series, it was a push, but I hope you all won with the 2.5 like I did.

Down in New Orleans we had an absolute shootout between the Seahawks (+5) and Saints.  This was torture jumping for joy when the Seahawks scored yet knowing they can’t stop a peewee team right now.  The Saints unfortunately scored last and covered the spread winning 39-32.

We got on the board easily with the 49ers (-6.5) who completely dismantled a dying Panthers team.  In fact, head coach Matt Rhule lost his job before he ordered dinner as Carolina fell to 1-4.

I have to be better and that starts this week with a solid slate of NFL games with some very intriguing matchups.

 

Week 6

 

5. Buffalo Bills AT Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54 - 4:25 PM - CBS

How can you not bet the over in the game of the year?

I’m not going to sit idly by and watch these two teams mirror what they did in last year’s classic divisional round matchup.  These are the top two scoring offenses in the entire league with the two best QBs living in my opinion. 

The Bills have been an absolute machine essentially doing whatever they feel like.  Their only loss is at Miami in brutal humidity when they still had 497 total yards of offense.  They, in a vacuum, cannot be stopped.

The Chiefs meanwhile are still the Chiefs with a league leading 31.8 points per game.  They do it in a number of ways and still have the greatest red zone threat in football in TE Travis Kelce.

Josh Allen leads the league in passing yards.  Patrick Mahomes leads the league in TDs.

Points!  Points!  Points!

 

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5 -110) AT Pittsburgh Steelers - 1 PM - FOX

I tried very hard to convince myself on one of the big underdogs this weekend but during my research there is just no line that grabbed me enough.  With this one, there was too many reasons to take the Bucs.

The Steelers stink.  They don’t just stink; they also have a ton of injuries and a rookie QB.  The Bucs defense is an awful matchup for QB Kenny Pickett to navigate.  I expect the athletes Tampa rolls out there to cause havoc on a weak offensive line and a QB with no experience.

Offensively the Bucs have left a lot to be desired on the scoreboard but I feel this is their breakthrough.  Pittsburgh will be missing their top three cornerbacks and all world safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.  The Bucs haven’t scored a ton of points but Brady and co. have still produced a top 3 passing offense.  The Steelers simply have no way of stopping them.

Look for Mike Evans to go OFF Sunday with 120+ yds and a couple TDs as the Bucs get right and roll.

 

3. Cincinnati Bengals AT New Orleans Saints (+3 -115) – 1 PM – CBS

The Saints have had a seesaw season thus far with patches of great defense but then they gave up a boatload of points to the visiting Seahawks last week.  They have been an anomaly for certain.

QB/TE hybrid Taysom Hill broke out last week doing literally everything on the field and I look for him to be a huge weapon moving forward in the season. 

On the Bengals side, I think they are still favored in toss up games like this due to the Super Bowl run last year.  They just haven’t been very good.  The offensive line is still atrocious and star WR Tee Higgins is doubtful to play.  The Saints aggressive defensive scheme will pose all kinds of problems for the Bengals offense.

I think the Saints could win this game outright but I’ll absolutely take the 3 points.

 

2. New England Patriots AT Cleveland Browns OVER 43 – 1 PM – CBS

The Browns have been a thorn in my side all year losing or pushing a few of my bets in the Top 5. 

Both teams aren’t strong against the run and offensively they have incredibly physical power games.  I see both RBs Nick Chubb and Rhamondre Stevenson running wild Sunday afternoon. 

Patriots rookie backup QB Bailey Zappe will do enough in down field throws to keep things opened up but the Browns haven’t stopped anyone.  The Pats O line has been tremendous so far and the holes they open up will be large enough for an 18-wheeler to drive through.

The Browns meanwhile are 2nd to only the Chiefs in redzone appearances in the league.  They provide us over bettors with a ton of opportunities to pile points. 

I see this being a back and forth affair comfortably over the 43 number.

 

1. Arizona Cardinals AT Seattle Seahawks OVER 50.5 – 4:25 PM – FOX

Our third over in the Top 5?!? 

I know, it seems a bit nuts but there is so much to love about my top pick this week.

The Seahawks have been a bit of a revelation offensively this season ranking 8th in total yards.  They are averaging over 25 points per game and QB Geno Smith has been lights out.  Not a sentence I ever thought I’d publish…

Arizona has been sleeping out of the gate in each game this year being one of the worst first quarter teams in recent memory but they always crawl back.  They seem to open up their offense when they get down.  QB Kyler Murray has been his “Madden-like” self and he has been hooking up with his old college teammate WR Marquise Brown at will.  RB James Conner is out this week but backup Eno Benjamin provides a great spark with his speed and elusiveness. 

The Cardinals have been fabulous on the road.  In fact, since the start of last season, Arizona is averaging 29.3 points a game away from home.  Makes little to no sense but the numbers are the numbers.

More importantly, the Seahawks defense is horrendous giving up 30.8 points a game.  They have been in shootout type games all year and I don’t expect this divisional matchup to be any different.

 

Good luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

 

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile