CFB Week 8 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 7 Record: 3-2 / Overall: 15-14-1 (50%)

The early games started off with two no doubter wins with the Kansas/Oklahoma OVER 62 and Iowa St. (+15.5).  Unfortunately, they were partnered with a Michigan pounding of Penn St (+7.5) 41-17.  The Nittany Lions grabbed momentum and a 14-13 lead after a defensive TD.  Sadly, that was followed by Michigan dominating every facet of the game from there on out.  I think this game showed a lot about both teams in opposite ways. 

KU/Okla was one of the easiest overs you’ll ever get and Texas was clearly looking ahead to their matchup with Oklahoma St this week which I predicted.

Next up was those Cowboys of Oklahoma St. (+4) who lost an absolute thriller in TCU but covered our 4-point spread in double overtime.  OK St may have some trouble moving forward as it appears veteran QB Spencer Sanders is banged up and may miss this week’s huge Longhorns matchup.

It wouldn’t be a Top 5 without a devastating loss and we got that with Utah -3.5.  Actually, I shouldn’t claim that as USC was covering, and winning, the entire game.  But still, with overtime dead in our sights, the Utes went for two to win the game by one with under 30 seconds left.

Exhilarating finish, tough loss.

We’re back at 50% on the year and I LOVE this week’s slate!

 

Week 8

 

5A. ULM AT Army UNDER 55.5 -115 - 12 PM - CBSSN

5B. Arizona St AT Stanford UNDER 54.5 -110 - 4 PM - PAC 12 Network

We got ourselves a two for one special in my Top 5 this week!  I couldn’t decide between the two because I love both unders equally.

The ULM/Army game is going to be a grind out, gross, Noon EST game in West Point.  Both teams have been underwhelming and I see this being a rock fight.  It will mirror a traditional armed forces contest where the run game will be paramount.  I see both defenses keeping things at bay.

In the Arizona St/Stanford game, it’ll be similar.  A sleepy, 1 PM local time game between two teams who haven’t lit up any scoreboards.  I predict there will be 11 people at this game outside of the bands and the families.  Stanford is coming off a slug fest upset of Notre Dame in South Bend and there’s no way they’re going to be up for this game.  And the Sun Devils can’t wait for this putrid season to end.

 

4. BYU AT Liberty (+7 -115) - 3:30 PM - ESPNU

The glass slipper has fallen off the BYU Cougars.  One of my favorite early season teams has lost two straight and their defense can’t stop a high school team right now.  Giving up 52 to Arkansas at home is one thing, giving up 28 to an inefficient and sloppy Notre Dame team is another. 

Liberty is one of the least remarkable 6-1 teams I’ve ever seen and maybe that one point loss to Wake Forest a month ago is still burnt into my brain, but they’re not 7 points worse than BYU at home.  Hugh Freeze is a lot of things, but a very good college coach is one of them.

I think the Flames will be able to score on BYU like everyone else and keep this thing close.

 

3. #17 Kansas St (+3.5 -115) AT #8 TCU - 8 PM - FS1

TCU has undoubtedly been one of the great stories in 2022.  They are undefeated and just came back to beat Oklahoma St in a double overtime barnburner with College Gameday in attendance.

However, this is where they run into a brick wall.  Kansas St does everything well and is a nuisance to play against.  The Wildcats come into this weekend with the 8th best rushing offense in the country and all they do is grind the clock.  I see this frustrating a red-hot TCU team who is beyond due for a come back to Earth moment.

Vegas is expecting us to look at this short line and ride the Horned Frogs to keep their dream season going.  Instead, I’ll be taking the 3.5 points AND sprinkling some K St money line as well.  The TCU defense has been bending all year long giving up a whopping 409.7 yds per game (176th in the country).  It’s going to catch up to them Saturday against a very good 5-1 Wildcats team.

 

2. #9 UCLA (+7 -115) AT #10 Oregon - 3:30 PM - FOX

All Chip Kelly and the UCLA Bruins have done this year is… win.

It’s not just that they’re winning though, it’s how.  Sure, Kelly offenses are known for incredible pace and speed and the Bruins have that.  However, the difference this season to me has been their physicality.  Two weeks ago, when they beat Utah handily, you could tell the Utes didn’t expect to get met at the point of attack on every play but that’s exactly what happened.  They’re more complete an offense than the national media is giving them credit for.

QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been tremendous with 15 TDs to just 2 INTs.  He’s thrown TDs to nine different pass catchers as the Bruins offense spreads the love.  On the other side, the Ducks have Bo Nix.  Nix has been good to exceptional at times this season but if you watched even a series of that Georgia game to start the year, you know this team doesn’t want to bang in the trenches.

There are going to be a ton of points Saturday afternoon and I see UCLA hanging with Oregon tooth and nail in what I envision to be a classic college football game.

 

1. #7 Ole Miss AT LSU (-2 -120) - 3:30 PM - CBS

Man do I wish this game was at night!  But I’ll certainly settle for the 3:30 CBS game of the day.

LSU’s offense is cooking right now coming off 45 points IN Florida last week.  Coach Brian Kelly seems to have found his footing and outside of a beating at the hands of my #1 team in the country, Tennessee, LSU is dangerous. 

In comes the Rebels of Ole Miss.  Undefeated and simply cruising along but who have they played?

Kentucky is the only team that jumps off the page and if you remember that game a few weeks ago, the Rebels had no business winning it.  Trust me, I know, because I gave you Ole Miss and they didn’t cover.  Kentucky gave away 3 fumbles at crucial points in that game and the Rebels simply hung on.

This is Ole Miss’s first true road test of the season and Baton Rouge, day or night, isn’t to be messed with.  Voted the hardest place to play countless times in my lifetime, Tiger Stadium will be rowdy Saturday afternoon. 

I simply don’t think the Rebels are the 7th best team in the country and like TCU earlier, they are very due for a letdown.  This line has moved from LSU +1 to -2 with the smart money still on the Tigers.  That tells me all I need to know. 

 

Good luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile