NFL Week 7 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 6 Record: 1-4 / Overall: 11-17-2 (36.7%)

Week 6 was a complete minefield for handicappers and gamblers alike.

So many people I keep an eye on got killed just like me last week.  The NFL as a whole has put me in a personal blender but I’m going to begin the climb back to the brim this week!

The Bucs (-9.5) stink.  I mean they just stink right?  I’m not sure how else to characterize them.  You’re almost a double-digit favorite and you lose outright?  Tampa chopped survivor pools worldwide in half.  They are on the banned list until they show some semblance of positivity.

Next loss on the docket was the Saints (+3) at home against the Bengals.  This one was yet another painstaking 4th quarter blunder for my side.  In Week 5 it was the Saints coming back to put my Seahawks bet in the loss column, this week it was the Bengals storming ahead to cover by 1.  Saints also stink.  The whole NFC South stinks stinks stinks.

Thank goodness for New England who almost single handily got our Pats/Browns Over 43 in Cleveland.  That running game is a PROBLEM for the rest of the league as they appear like they can’t be stopped.

I had two other O/U bets in the Top 5.  Both of which weren’t even close. 

Bills/Chiefs Over 54 in retrospect was exactly what the bookmakers wanted me to bet and Seahawks/Cardinals Over 50.5… Well, I’d rather not discuss that altogether.

We’re pushing forward into Week 7.  A week where top teams: Eagles, Bills, Vikings and Rams are all on their bye.  A league which has been bogged down by gross play for long stretches won’t let off the gas this week. 

But remember, even bad football is still better than any other day without football.

 

Week 7

 

5. Green Bay Packers AT Washington Commanders (+4.5 -110) – 1 PM – FOX

Home underdogs have ruled the 2022 season.  The league is so average, or to go in a more optimistic light, the league has so much parity that a home team getting over 4 points all need to be looked at long and hard.

Looking at this week’s options, the Commanders make the most sense to me for a few reasons.

First on the Washington side, old starting QB is new again as Taylor Heinicke is back under center.  This dude is the epitome of a gamer.  I still remember him running for his life covering a playoff game against the eventual champion Tampa Bay Bucs a couple years ago.  The Commanders have been really bad, but they did win last week on the road and they have had 10 days to prepare.

Secondly, the Packers are struggling mightily and in a number of ways.  Back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers has been a shell of himself and his “weapons” haven’t shined bright.  I’ve been more shocked by how bad their defense has looked.  The Giants and Jets both put 27 points up on a team who had a very good unit last year and added two first round picks to that side of the ball. 

Give me Heinicke to keep this game close right up until the final seconds tick off the clock.

 

4. Indianapolis Colts AT Tennessee Titans (-2.5 -110) – 1 PM – CBS

Upon my first glance at this week’s slate of games, this AFC South matchup was a clear pass for me.  However, the research turned me into a Titans backer.

Sometimes, its simply all about the numbers.  For Titans coach Mike Vrabel, the numbers are glaringly positive.

Vrabel is a staggering 8-0 straight up AND against the spread when the Titans have 10+ days to prepare.  In those 8 games, their average margin of victory is 19 points!  I’m not great at math but it sure seems like 8-0 is pretty darn good.  Tennessee is indeed coming off their bye and playing a team that they know very well.  Over the past 6 matchups with Indy, the Titans are 5-1 straight up including a win just 3 weeks ago 24-17.

The Colts have been a total roller coaster this season but they are coming into Nashville on a two-game winning streak.  One of those games was the field goal fest on Thursday Night Football in Denver that was cruel punishment for us viewers.

I can see bettors thinking the roulette ball can’t come up red (or in this case red, navy and white) 9 times in a row for Vrabel, but I’m sticking with the trends.

 

3. Atlanta Falcons AT Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5 -110) – 1 PM – FOX

Yes, I know the Falcons are 6-0 ATS.  Everyone is talking about it.  Hell, my doctor mentioned it to me the other day. 

But enough is enough, right?

This is the perfect spot for the glass slipper to fall off Atlanta’s foot.  The Bengals figured something out in that second half last week in New Orleans and after an extremely sleepy and some would say lackluster first 6 weeks, I expect Cincy to get it going.

The sharps are all over Cincy as well and I see why.  The Falcons are coming off a masterful performance against a banged up and traveling for weeks Niners team.  But I’m not taking anything away from them.  The offense has been way more entertaining than I ever thought they’d be.

However, the Bengals thrive on what Atlanta struggles in.  QB Joe Burrow and his elite wide receivers have been good for 9th overall in passing offense.  Meanwhile, the visiting Falcons rank 31st in pass defense.  I expect Joe cool to have his way as the Bengals get a comfortable and impressive win at home.

 

2. Seattle Seahawks (+4.5 -110) AT Los Angeles Chargers – 4:25 PM – FOX

I’m addicted to betting on Seahawks games.  Mainly because other than last week’s snooze fest where I gave the over, their games have been fireworks.

On the other side of the field are the Chargers who have had a head scratching early part to their season to say the least.  Last week against the Broncos we saw all world QB Justin Herbert throw 57 times for an insanely low 6.4 yards per completion.  He just dinked and dunked his way to field goals.  The offense is so gross at the moment.

Seattle’s offense meanwhile has lit up scoreboards all season long behind tremendous play from their much maligned QB Geno Smith. 

For me this game is about the team’s trends but also the intangible that SoFi Stadium will be half Seahawks fans Sunday afternoon.  The worst home field advantage in all of football makes me feel like LA would almost rather be on the road.

I expect a huge day from rookie RB Kenneth Walker as the Chargers run defense has been atrocious of late.  Take the Hawks on the road to keep it close and maybe even win the game outright.

 

1. New York Giants AT Jacksonville Jaguars (-3 -115) – 1 PM – FOX

This game stinks to high heaven!

The Giants, who are one of only four teams who have a record 5-1 or better, are three-point underdogs against a team who has lost three straight and are perennially at the top of the draft?

AND the smart money is flowing in like champagne on the Jags?  Make it make sense!

The Giants have had a dream like first six weeks of Brian Daboll’s head coaching career.  They have come from out of nowhere to beat perennial playoff teams like the Ravens, Packers, and Titans.  Their defense is opportunistic, their run game is elite and their QB is managing the game and not making mistakes. 

But, I mean, this simply can’t continue. 

They have me and you playing WR for them right now for goodness sake.  The world isn’t ready for a 6-1 New York football Giants squad.

The Jags are so rarely a favorite but I’m backing them this week.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile