CFB Week 9 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

Become a member of Bet Karma Premium today!  Our Premium services are incredible and a true must have for any daily gambler.  From Props to Futures to Daily Fantasy, we'll guide you through everything you need start to finish.  Get started for under $1 a day right now!

 

Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 8 Record: 3-3 / Overall: 18-17-1 (50%)

We’ll start with my two-for-one UNDER play special.  I went 1-1.  I watched every snap of that Army/ULM (Under 55.5) game at noon and am a worse person today because of it.  However, on the other side of the county, I nailed everything about the Arizona St/Stanford (Under 54.5) 1 PM local time snooze fest.

We had a loaded card for the midday games with two easy winners and one blowout loser.  As the UCLA (+7) kickoff approached I had massive buyers’ remorse but couldn’t turn back then.  UCLA had only played 2 games on the road; Oregon had figured it out the last month and were tremendous at home.  Most importantly everyone I spoke to was also on UCLA.  Never a good thing.  It was a square bet and I’ll be better.

Thankfully, Liberty (+7) won by a million outright as a dog and my #1 pick of the weekend LSU (-2) dismantled a criminally overrated Ole Miss team in the Bayou.

My final bet of the day saw Kansas St (+3.5) go up 3 scores quick.  They were completely dominating the undefeated Horned Frogs in their building as I predicted.  I even went out to dinner to celebrate my 4-2 day! 

Unfortunately, TCU hit the “injure the starting QB” button on the remote AGAIN (3rd time this season they’ve knocked out a starting QB) and worked K St down to QB3 before they took control of the game and eventually won by 10.

I can’t believe it’s already Week 9…

It’s TRAP WEEK!

 

Week 9

 

5. #2 Ohio State AT #13 Penn St (+14.5 -110) - 12 PM - FOX

After getting smashed in the face a couple weeks ago against Michigan as a dog, I’m BACK on Penn State against a top 4 team.  This time in their friendly confines against the mighty Buckeyes of Ohio St.

I tried desperately to avoid this game but it called to me over and over.  Coach James Franklin has NEVER lost to Ohio St by more than 2 TDs and I don’t expect him to now.  Sure, it would have been better if this was an 8 PM “White Out” game at Beaver Stadium but a Noon game in front of 108,000 rabid fans will suffice.

Ohio State has smoked everyone in their path but they haven’t really played anyone.  In fact, Penn St will undoubtedly be the best team they’ve played all year.  Ohio St scored 54 points last week on Iowa, but if you watched the game, you saw a sloppy offense who was a bit out of sync against a good defense before putting it on them late.  Penn St’s defense is similar to Iowa’s.

Also, regarding PSU, a lesser team would have lost to Michigan by 100 and followed that up with a sloppy performance the following week.  Shocking to me, Penn St provided their fans the opposite, waxing a good Minnesota team 45-17 at home.

I see veteran QB Sean Clifford keeping the Nittany Lions within striking distance the entire game and although Ohio St will win the game, I can’t imagine it will be by more than 2 touchdowns.

 

4. #19 Kentucky (+12 -110) AT #3 Tennessee - 7 PM - ESPN

Like I mentioned in my intro, this is Trap Week in college football.  There is no bigger “Trap” scenario than the Volunteers hosting their hated rival Kentucky Wildcats Saturday night.

I’ve been all over Tennessee the entire year and it’s been a true joy to see them BACK in relevancy.  However, this game is incredibly scary for the Vols with their massive matchup looming next week at the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs.

Kentucky has had a seesaw season but have always played tough.  Their two losses were a sleepy one against South Carolina without future NFL starter QB Will Levis at the helm and against Ole Miss in their building where the refs and costly turnovers ripped victory from their grasp.  Simply put, Kentucky makes you EARN everything.

Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops is also 5-0-1 against the spread in his last six games vs. ranked opponents and they are 11-2 ATS as a TD underdog or more.  Kentucky is the #9 defense in points allowed and #14 in total defense.  They have too much pride and too much hatred for their rivals to watch the Vols run all over them.  They simply won’t get blown out by 12+.

 

3. Pittsburgh AT North Carolina (OVER 65.5 -110) - 8 PM - ACC Network

This game is going to rule.

UNC has everything in front of them in terms of a Coastal Division win and a berth into the ACC Title game later this season.  This is a HUGE game for them and I do lean the Tar Heels -3 as well.

But we’re going with the points.

These defenses leave a lot to be desired… especially UNC.  I fully expect Pitt’s star RB Israel Abanikanda to have his way with the UNC front.  Every time I blink, I envision him busting 40+ yard sprints inside the tackles for scores.

On the other side, its all about QB Drake Maye who has been other worldly this season.  Maye has 24 TDs to just 3 INTs this season and is completing throws at an over 70% clip.  The Heels are coming off a bye week and will be chomping at the bit to light up the scoreboard.

The sharps are on this over at an absurd 96% and I’m right there with them. 

I see a 38-31 barnburner in Chapel Hill Saturday night.  Take the over.

 

2. #7 TCU AT West Virginia (+7.5 -110) - 12 PM - ESPN

That Kansas St loss last week up 28-10 against TCU has been swimming around my brain all week long.  I know this may seem like I’m chasing the dragon a bit betting against the undefeated Frogs again but hear me out.

TCU is ripe for the pickin!

It’s been a magical season to say the least in Fort Worth, TX.  TCU is undefeated and in prime position for a real run at the College Football Playoff.  But here’s the problem, they’re not THAT good.

QB Max Duggan has been tremendous but he is 0-3 against West Virginia in his career with only one TD to five INTs.  The Mountaineers own this TCU offense.

With college I do feel its mostly year to year so I would be ok if you want to throw that stat out, especially because this WV team just lost by 38 to Texas Tech.  But make no mistake about it, they will be up for this potential nation sweeping upset bid. 

Defensively TCU gives up almost 400 yards a game and an astounding number for an undefeated team, 27 points per game.  They have to outscore every opponent they line up against and so far, they’ve been able to.

Morgantown will be rocking early and throughout as the scoreboard is lit up at an alarming rate in this matchup.  Sing Country Road with me and take the 7 and a hook with the Mountaineers.

 

1. #10 Wake Forest (-3.5 -110) AT Louisville – 3:30 PM – ACC Network

The disrespect for the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and star QB Sam Hartman is palpable!

All Wake has done is win 6 of their 7 games and cover damn near every week.  Their only loss is an absolute thriller against undefeated and perennial powerhouse Clemson in double overtime.

Louisville meanwhile has won 3 out of their last 4 including an impressive low scoring affair last week against Pitt.  However, I will never get over them losing to hapless Boston College a few weeks ago. 

The only worry I have with Wake is when they play top QBs.  Cardinals QB Malik Cunningham has been a unique dual threat but he doesn’t scare anyone through the air.  Meanwhile, Louisville has gotten handled every time they’ve played an above average quarterback.  If Cunningham is forced into a shootout with Hartman, I’ll take Sam 100 times out of 100.

I admit, the line is incredible fishy but I’ll direct back to my top line of this matchup.  Wake is consistently disrespected and I truly feel Vegas is going to get their butts handed to them in this game. 

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile