NFL Week 8 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 7 Record: 4-1 / Overall: 15-18-2 (42.9%)

What a week for the NFL Top 5!

Let’s start with the only blemish and get that out of the way.  My #1 pick Jaguars (-3) lost to the 6-1 New York football Giants and all the angels that are surrounding Big Blue.  The Giants are for real and you won’t see me betting against them for some time.

From there on it was all winners all the time. 

The Titans (-2.5) won a gross, disgusting 19-10 teeth pull in Nashville cementing their ownership of the Colts and sending Matt Ryan possibly into retirement. 

We travel up to Cincinnati (-6.5) next where the ATS slipper finally fell off the Falcons foot.  Joe Burrow, Tyler Boyd and Ja’Marr Chase lit up Atlanta’s defense en route to an easy 35-17 victory.

Finishing up the 1 PM slate was the Commanders (+4.5) who thwarted all conventional wisdom taking down the Packers OUTRIGHT.  Back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers and co. are in serious trouble and it doesn’t get any easier this week at Buffalo.

We finished with another underdog becoming an outright winner.  This time it was the Seahawks (+4.5) on the “road” to beat the Chargers who appear as fraudulent as it gets.

Let’s ride this huge momentum as we move into the last weekend of October.  It’s a real tough slate this week so I had to dig deep to find my Top 5.

 

Week 8

 

5. Miami Dolphins AT Detroit Lions (OVER 51.5 -110) - 1 PM – CBS

Every time I think about the trajectory of this game, I see Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle running wild on that fast track in Ford Field.  Tell me you don’t see the same thing!

QB Tua Tagovailoa and his plethora of weapons are going to go off on the struggling Lions defense Sunday afternoon.  Actually, saying the Lions defense is struggling isn’t strong enough.  They are ATROCIOUS and rank last in the league in both yards allowed (412.2 ypg) AND points allowed (32.3 ppg).  Hill, Waddle, and RB Raheem Mostert will be running free into the endzone all day long.

Over on the Dolphins defense, well, it isn’t much better.  They rank 21st in yards allowed (358.4) ypg) and 23rd in points allowed (23.6 ppg).  They also just lost their stud safety and leading tackler Brandon Jones to an ACL tear this past Monday against Pittsburgh.

The Lions had a lot of trouble last week finding the endzone against a stellar Dallas defense but they had a ton of opportunities to punch it in.  This will be much easier for them at home against the Dolphins. 

Take the over.

 

4. Tennessee Titans AT Houston Texans (-1 -110) - 4:05 PM - CBS

Yes, I’m betting one of, if not the worst team in the league and I don’t care who knows it!

This is the quintessential sandwich trap spot for the Titans.  They are 4-2 and once again comfortably on top of the porous AFC South after beating Indy last week.  On the horizon looms a Sunday Night Football matchup against the West leading Kansas City Chiefs.

A hard-fought win last week and a primetime battle next makes this snoozer of a Texans tilt on the road seem less than.  It’s human nature! 

Then we get to the news from today that QB Ryan Tannehill is out for this game making it the first start in the career of rookie Malik Willis.  The line has reflected this change moving from Titans -2.5 all the way to Texans -1. 

Sure, the Texans seem like a fine team to start your career against but aside from last week their defense has been plucky.  I see this as a prime spot to go against the grain and take the lowly Texans at home to surprise Tennessee.

 

3. Cincinnati Bengals (-3 -115) AT Cleveland Browns - Monday: 8:30 PM – ESPN

These are two division rivals going in opposite directions.

The Browns season may be cooked after losing four straight games while on the other side of Ohio, the Bengals offense is clicking on all cylinders. 

Superstar WR Ja’Marr Chase being injured and out for this game is problematic for sure but the Bengals are still loaded.  RB Joe Mixon, WRs Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are better than any player the Browns will match up with them.  QB Joe Burrow is on fire as the offense scored TDs on their first four possessions last week.

The Browns defense meanwhile has gotten worse by the week and at times appear to have given up (I.E. – Patriots 2nd half).  QB Jacoby Brissett has regressed back to the mean and is not good enough to keep up on the scoreboard with Burrow.

This being a Monday Night Football game and Chase’s injury kept this line at -3 and I’m going to pounce all over that.

 

2. Carolina Panthers AT Atlanta Falcons (-4 -110) - 1 PM – FOX

This line is a head scratcher for sure.  It opened at Falcons -6.5 and immediately was bet down by the eager public after the Panthers smashed the Bucs last week and the Falcons lost in Cincy.

I get that thought process but we need to remember, the Panthers… stink!

QB PJ Walker didn’t play great last week and the run game carried the day.  Please note, the Bucs also… stink.  Mike Evans dropped that easy TD on the first drive and the offense stalled many times in Carolina territory. 

Atlanta’s secondary is all banged up but Walker’s skill set isn’t meant to attack that flaw.  The Falcons meanwhile still have an incredibly explosive run game and efficient passing attack behind QB Marcus Mariota’s dual threat. 

It’s in Atlanta, first place is (shockingly) on the line.  I just don’t see any scenario that the Falcons don’t take full advantage of this opportunity and win this game by a TD or more.

 

1. New England Patriots (-2.5 -115) AT New York Jets - 1 PM - CBS

You’re telling me that I get Bill Belichick under a field goal favorite against the New York Jets after an embarrassing primetime loss?  That’s a beautiful recipe for my #1 pick in the Top 5.

Vegas thinks they have pulled one over on us with this line.  The Jets have had an awesome Cinderella type first 7 weeks.  They’re 5-2 and have rattled off four victories in a row.  QB Zach Wilson has managed the games and the defense led by star rookie CB Sauce Gardner have ruled the day. 

However, they just lost whom I feel is their best overall skill player in RB Breece Hall for the season.  Trading for former Jaguar James Robinson was a great move by GM Joe Douglas but he won’t have the playbook down by Sunday afternoon.  Michael Carter is a great 3rd down option but not an every down back.  My point is the Jets offense was revolving around the complete run game that has taken a huge dent.

Meanwhile, that Pats loss on Monday Night (and my survivor pick) to the lowly Chicago Bears was shocking.  They started Mac Jones and then yanked him the second the fans chanted for Bailey Zappe.  Now, Jones is back.  It’s worrisome as a gambler to back a team that appears in disarray at the most important position in sports.  But I believe they’re fully behind Jones now.

This matchup is huge for the Patriots if they think a wildcard berth is in their future which I personally do.  I see them being extremely motivated to stick it to a division rival and shrink their heads back down to size.

Finally, this is what I know.  Death, Taxes and the Patriots beat the Jets. 

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile