CFB Week 10 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 9 Record: 2-3 / Overall: 20-20-1 (48.8%)

We start with one of the worst beats you’ll ever see.  Let me paint the picture.

WVU (+7.5) was down 3 with 28 seconds left.  TCU had the ball 4th and 2.  First down and the game is over, TCU wins, we cover, its sunshine and rainbows.  Mountaineers’ defensive end jumps offsides, the WR instinctively runs a vertical.  QB Max Duggan throws it up… Touchdown.  TCU wins by 10.  We lose.

That was one of the worst beats I’ve ever seen in 15+ years gambling on college football.  The game was over… until it wasn’t.

Thankfully, over in the Big 10, Penn St (+14.5) scored late to cover our bet even though they were inside the number the entire game.  Gambling Gods giveth, and they taketh away.

My #1 Wake Forest (-3.5) pick was a dead loser the entire game and it certainly didn’t help that they had EIGHT turnovers!  How about this stat, every Wake possession in the 3rd quarter ended in a turnover.  I mean that’s insanity.  Louisville went on to outscore Wake 35-0 in that quarter alone.  Brutal.

The night slate had had some more yin and yang as Tennessee completely buried Kentucky (+12) and are now the #1 team in the College Football Playoff while UNC/Pitt (Over 65.5) was the track meet I expected.

The CFP rankings are out and it is getting very real for the top teams in the country.  Week 10 is upon us and there are incredible matchups on this slate.  Spoiler – I’m staying away from the Tennessee/Georgia and LSU/Bama matchups because I can’t wait to just put my feet up and watch those beauties.

 

Week 10

 

5. Baylor AT Oklahoma (OVER 61.5 -110) – 3 PM – ESPN+

My how the mighty have fallen in Oklahoma.

Let’s take a peek at some of the defensive rankings for the Sooners.  They are giving up 453.5 yds per game (224th) and 28.8 PPG (213th).  Oklahoma has never been lauded for their defensive prowess but those numbers are downright gross. 

Offensively Oklahoma has put up numbers when QB Dillon Gabriel is behind center and I expect them to score on Saturday.

Baylor meanwhile has had a down defensive season, but have lit up scoreboards all year long averaging 38.4 PPG.  I don’t see any way the Sooners are able to keep Baylor under 35. 

This will be an old fashioned Big 12 shootout in Norman.  I’m going to sprinkle some cash on the Baylor Money line as well but I’m more comfortable with the Over 61.5 on my Top 5.

 

4. #25 UCF AT Memphis (+3.5 -120) – 3:30 PM – ESPN2

This is an absolutely CLASSIC sandwich spot for UCF. 

Emotional home win last week against perennial AAC darling Cincinnati and a look ahead spot at #19 Tulane with a lot on the line.  Not sure they’ll be up for this Memphis team who has lost three absolute heartbreakers in a row.

I’m not going to sit here and say the Tigers are all that great because they’re not.  But sometimes in sports there are clear spot matchups that are a must bet.  The sharps agree as heavy money has come in on Memphis moving this line from +5 to +3.5.

I loved it at 5 but I’m not running from 3 and the hook. 

UCF QB John Rhys Plumlee got hurt last week and is a true game time decision.  I personally don’t think he’ll be able to go but even if he does, I don’t envision he will be effective enough to cover this spread on the road.

Give me the Tigers with a little piece of the ML as well.

 

3. BYU AT Boise St (-8 -110) – 7 PM - Fox Sports 2

These are two teams going in complete opposite directions.

BYU is a dead dog at this point in the season while Boise has rattled off four wins in a row.  I’ve watched a ton of Boise and Vegas simply hasn’t caught up to them in my opinion.  They are a sound, well coached football team.

BYU was a darling early in the year but their defense is cooked.  They’ve lost four straight giving up a whopping 37 PPG during that stretch. 

Boise is going to blow the doors off the Cougars on the blue turf as the sun sets in Idaho. 

 

2. Michigan St AT #16 Illinois (-16 -110) – 3:30 PM – BIG Network

It is (well overdue) time to put some respect on the Illini.

Not only are they 7-1, they are ranked in the CFP rankings and on their way to a likely Big 10 Title game.

They have done it on the backs of their incredible defense which is allowing a paltry 8.9 PPG, good for #1 in the country.  They absolutely smother bad offenses.

Speaking of bad offenses, in come the Spartans of Michigan St to Champaign, IL.  What a horrendous year it’s been for Sparty.  They are 3-5 on the season, but 1-5 against Power 5 conference teams.  Not only have they been bad on the field, they’ve been disgusting off it.  What happened last weekend in the Big House when what felt like 20 Spartan players jumped and beat down a Michigan player in the tunnel is inexcusable.  There were suspensions levied and maybe even charges pressed.  They’re a mess.

I don’t see any way they’re up for this game as a team, let alone against the best defense in the country.  Lay the points with Illinois.

 

1. #4 Clemson (-4 -110) AT Notre Dame – 7:30 PM – NBC

You didn’t think I’d stay away from ALL the big matchups this week, did you?

Clemson was placed 4th in the first CFP rankings this week and it was scoffed at by many respected College Football analysts but here’s what I’ll say on that.  Clemson is in this “playoff” because they can’t climb up theoretically with their remaining schedule.  The committee clearly valued the ACC over what TCU has done up until this point and I think that’s fair.  But as you know I’m not a huge TCU guy.

Clemson has a major opportunity to put some respect back on their name Saturday night in South Bend.  ND has played well lately, especially against ACC teams.  Most recently, burying the overrated Syracuse Orange in their building.  They’re defense is very strong.  However, I was shocked by this stat:

Notre Dame has given up 85% rushing TDs in the redzone this season.  Clemson has one of the most bruising, “nose for the endzone” backs in RB Will Shipley who already has 10 TDs on the season.  I fully expect him to eat all night long.

When the Irish have the ball, how are they going to score?  QB Drew Pyne is simply not very good, averaging 170.4 yds per game.  They simply can’t push the ball down the field and I believe Clemson will stuff their running game as they only let up 85 yards per game on the ground.

The intangibles I believe favor the Tigers as well as it is 90% chance of rain Saturday night.  This will only shrink the Clemson playbook more to make sure they pound away on the ground all night long and not ask beleaguered QB DJ Uiagalelei to do too much. 

I like the under too but give me the Tigers and their experience on the road against an improving but still massively flawed Notre Dame squad. 

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile