NFL Week 9 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 8 Record: 2-3 / Overall: 17-21-2 (42.5%)

We just can’t get over the top…

The day started off gangbusters in D-town as the Dolphins/Lions Over 51.5 hit with ease in a wild one.  Equally wild was the NFC South shootout in Atlanta where the Falcons (-4) walked off in overtime but didn’t cover our spread.

My #1 pick of the day was a dicey victory by the Patriots (-2.5) as they continue to own the Jets year after year no matter who the QB is.

In the afternoon slate I fell into the Texans (-1) trap and I was very angry at myself about it.  They’re the worst team in the league and the line moved all the way to +1.5 which told me I had a loser when I woke up on Sunday.

Monday night was a massacre.  Poor Joe Burrow is lost without Ja’Marr Chase and is running for his life every play.  The Browns beat the breaks off my Bengals (-3) ensuring a losing week on the Top 5.

Really brutal slate ahead in Week 9 but we’ll try to find some cash in the crumbs as we move into the second half of the NFL season.

 

Week 9

 

5. Baltimore Ravens AT New Orleans Saints (+2 -110) – 8:15 PM – ESPN

This matchup is more about the intangibles than the team records coming into the game. 

Sure, the Saints had their first complete effort of the year last week shutting out the hapless Raiders at home 24-0.  But they are still a traditionally flawed team.

I’m taking the Saints because they are a bear to beat in the Superdome in primetime for as long as I can remember.  That, coupled with their recent play now that they have committed to QB Andy Dalton under center has me backing them this week.  The Saints lead the league with 14 offensive TDs over the past month.  They are figuring it out on both sides of the ball.

The Ravens are having all kinds of injury issues and may be starting 15-year veteran speedster WR Desean Jackson due to ailing bodies on the roster.  WR Rashod Bateman is out for the season, RB Gus Edwards is likely out as well.  Baltimore has had trouble closing games all season as well.  I don’t believe QB Lamar Jackson will have enough magic to win and cover this game. 

I’ll be sprinkling some money line as well but I’ll take the +2 to protect from any one-point Justin Tucker walk-offs.

 

4. Green Bay Packers AT Detroit Lions (OVER 49.5 -110) – 1 PM – FOX

I’m taking Lions overs at Ford Field until it burns me.

Detroit has been a haven for points this season and mostly due to the home team having a historically bad defense.  I’m pretty sure my high school team could put up 20 on them and we stunk. 

The Packers are down bad.  Really bad.  But there is no better “get right” game for QB Aaron Rodgers who has 11 TDs to zero INTs in his last four games against the division rival.  Rodgers has to play better and I believe he will in this game. 

I see the Packers getting an early lead causing Jared Goff to try and outduel Rodgers.  This will cause some sudden change turnovers leading to even more points on short fields.  I do think the Packers cover the 3.5 as well but the hook scared me away.

I’m sticking with the over in what I feel will be a 34-24 type game Sunday afternoon.

 

3. Seattle Seahawks (+2 -110) AT Arizona Cardinals – 4:05 PM – FOX

This one had me scratching my head for hours.

The Seahawks are clearly the better team and they’re catching points.  Yes, the game is in Arizona but the Cardinals have little to no home field advantage and I get that traditional thought would be division rivals would split the season series after the Hawks won 19-9 a few weeks ago. 

Also under consideration is the fact that star WR DeAndre Hopkins will be playing in this game but is he that much of a catalyst to push Arizona over a scorching Seattle team?  I say no.

The Cards are giving up over 30 points a game and the Seahawks are top five in a variety of categories.  Offensively ‘Zona is averaging just over 5 yards per play and has had a lot of trouble giving QB Kyler Murray time.  Seattle’s front seven has improved immensely each week and they brought down Murray 6 times in Week 6.  I expect more of the same on Sunday.

Speaking of Murray, he comes into this NFC West tilt 5-14 straight up and 6-11-2 against the spread against the division.  That’s not going to get it done.

I love how the young guys the Hawks play are all getting better by the game and growing together.  What head coach Pete Carroll has done would garner Coach of the Year honors if it weren’t for Nick Sirianni and Brian Daboll. 

Give me the better team, with the better stats, getting 2 points.

 

2. Los Angeles Chargers AT Atlanta Falcons (+3 -115) – 1 PM – FOX

Here’s another line that made absolutely no sense to me.

The Chargers are coming off a bye but they’re still just as worse for the wear as when they went in.  Both top WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are out for Sunday and QB Justin Herbert ranks 27th in the league in yards per attempt (6.5 yds). 

This is also the tried-and-true west coast favored team comes east for 1 PM game. 

I have to think this is solely Vegas knowing the public loves the Chargers and their wacky coach Brandon Staley who thinks he’s coaching in his backyard. 

The Falcons meanwhile are…cough… FIRST in the NFC South and have a QB in Marcus Mariota who is coming in with three straight games with passer rating over 100.  Atlanta’s rushing offense has been on fire as well ranking 5th in the league while the LA defense gives up 5.7 yards per carry.  That’s the worst in football.  It’s massive strength versus glaring weakness.  AND I’m getting points.  AND I’m at home.

Atlanta is 3-0 ATS this year as a home underdog.  Give me the Falcons.

 

1. Los Angeles Rams AT Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5 -125) – 4:25 PM – CBS

This game is the ultimate rock meet hard place.

Two extremely disappointing teams meet in Tampa Sunday afternoon in what I feel is an eliminator matchup.  If you would have told me that this game would boast a combined record of 6-11 before the season started, I’d have said you’re crazy!

QB and greatest to ever do it, Tom Brady, is 2 games under .500 since he was in pop warner (probably) and no one on this planet needs to have a good day more than him.  As does coach Todd Bowles and coordinator Byron Leftwich who have looked bafflingly incoherent on both sides of the ball this season.  There is simply way too much talent on this roster to fall to 3-6 at home, effectively ending their season.

LA is also coming into this matchup a bit banged up as they somehow, someway had WR Cooper Kupp running routes late in last week’s loss against the Niners.  He looks like he’ll play but his ankle was tweaked late in that game.  Neither team can run the ball at all and I don’t expect that to miraculously change. 

This is also a big-time revenge spot for the Bucs as they lost a heartbreaker last year in the Divisional Playoffs 30-27 to the eventual champion Rams.  I’m sure they’ve had this matchup circled since May and this will finally be the game Tampa puts it together and comfortably covers the game.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile