CFB Week 11 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 10 Record: 1-4 / Overall: 21-24-1 (45.7%)

It was a true bloodbath in Week 10 and it wasn’t even close.

My sole win came early and easy with the Baylor/Oklahoma over 61.5.  These two teams are allergic to defense and that shined through Saturday afternoon.

From there on out it was tragedy after disaster.  Memphis (+3.5) was in the game all day against UCF.  Unfortunately, it was a TD that broke a tie late, not the FG we needed, which iced it for the Knights.

Illinois (-16) laid a big ol’ egg with so much on the line at home against Michigan St.  This was a true shocker as they not only didn’t cover, they lost outright. 

The night slate provided only more pain as Clemson (-3.5) got manhandled by the more physical Fighting Irish in South Bend.  As soon as I published last week, I began to regret this play.  Clemson is simply not very good this year and I wish I was ahead of that before kickoff Saturday night.

Finishing up my nightmare evening was Boise St (-8) who lost to a dead dog BYU team at home under the lights on the Blue Turf.  I can’t remember when Boise dropped such a big game at home like that this late in the season. 

I chose to avoid the two big SEC games last week in the Top 5 which proved to be a giant mistake.  I was all over Georgia and the under in the 1v2 matchup in Athens as well as LSU +13 at home vs Bama. 

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I’m not messing around this week. 

The games below may not seem marquee but we’re in the business of winners, not ranked matchups, and I LOVE these five bets.

 

Week 11

 

5. Miami AT Georgia Tech (PK -120) - 3:30 PM - RSN

There are more than a few schools in contention for most disappointing team of 2022.  But my vote is the Miami Hurricanes.

‘The U’ opened the season ranked 16th in the nation and two months later they lost to in state rival Florida St. 45-3 AT HOME!  Truly shocking how awful they’ve become.

Miami has put together four straight weeks of putrid offense averaging 14.5 points per game over that span.  I’m not sure what to make of them moving forward as the expectations were sky high under alumni and highly touted head coach Mario Cristobal.  I’m not going to outright say they’ve quit on him but things sure seem dire in South Beach.

Georgia Tech meanwhile is playing inspired football after winning by 1 on the road vs Virginia Tech last week.  There’s no worse team to play when you’re reeling than a rushing centric offense who wants to grind you into submission.  I fully expect Tech to ground this game to a halt making Miami quit again en route to a boring 21-10 victory.

 

4. Liberty AT UConn (+14 -110) - 12 PM - CBSSN

UCONN!  Clap Clap… HUSKIES!

The Big East basketball powerhouse has actually played some great football the last month and are winners of 4 of their past 5 games.  Two of those wins came at home as a 7.5 (BC) and a 23.5 (Fresno St) point underdog!  Head coach Jim Mora Jr. has these boys playing extremely hard and they can taste bowl eligibility with two games to go.

Liberty comes into Saturday at an impressive 8-1 and just beat an SEC Arkansas team on the road as a two-touchdown dog.  They are prime for a letdown against a hungry Huskie squad at Rentschler Field in an early Noon kickoff.

It is telling to me that even at 8-1, Liberty remains unranked in all polls.  The coaches, AP and playoff committee aren’t believers and neither am I.

The sharp money is all over the Huskies and I think UConn could even win this game.   At 5-5, they have their eyes set on the postseason for the first time since 2015.  Give me the 14 points and a money-line sprinkle.

 

3. Iowa St AT Oklahoma St (UNDER 49 -120) - 3:30 PM - ESPNU

The wheels have officially fallen off the Oklahoma St Cowboys. 

What felt like an extremely promising season with sights of a Big 12 Title game dancing in their heads, has turned into a total nightmare losing 3 of their last 4 games.  QB Spencer Sanders has been battling injuries for what feels like a month and the season has unraveled.

Iowa St meanwhile hasn’t been lighting up any scoreboards this season averaging a paltry 16.3 points per game.  They play sound, and at times elite, defense and like to control the clock.

OK St has only scored 16 TOTAL points in their past two games and just want the regular season to end at this point.

I see this game going comfortably under the total.

 

2. #20 Notre Dame VS Navy (+15.5 -105) - 12 PM - ABC *Game Played in Baltimore, MD

It’s let down week once again, this time in the great rivalry of ND/Navy.

This game is being played at the Baltimore Ravens M&T Bank Stadium and there will be thousands of Midshipmen in attendance.  Outside of the Armed Forces matchups, every Navy player circles the Fighting Irish. 

The ‘masters of the triple option’ have been playing much better as of late and gave everything AAC power Cincinnati could handle on the road last week. 

Notre Dame just had their biggest win of head coach Marcus Freeman’s young career knocking off #4 Clemson at home last week.  They’re defense and running game was dominant but when you look closer at the box score, you’ll see QB Drew Pyne is completely inept at moving the ball down the field. 

Navy, as everyone knows, loves to control the clock and limit possessions.  If they get any type of lead or have it within one score late, Pyne and the Irish don’t have the down field threats to blow them out.

 

1. Texas A&M AT Auburn (-1.5 -105) - 7:30 PM - SECN

For those that thought NIL deals would buy championships… let me present you the 2022 Texas A&M Aggies.

Looking at the schedule before the season, you’d think this game would feature a roaring A&M team behind a top recruiting class vs an Auburn squad playing inspired ball for their head coach Brian Harsin.

Instead, we are getting two 3-6 teams with a former star RB at the helm on the Tigers sideline and an A&M team filled with players who can’t wait to enter the transfer portal.

Interim head coach Cadillac Williams (yes, THAT Cadillac Williams) has Auburn playing loose and free, finally getting to what they do best.  Run the football.  Now, the Tigers are still losing (five in a row), but they’ve battled hard against the country’s best.  They lost by 4 to #7 LSU, scored 34 on #11 Ole Miss, and just last week put up 33 in an overtime thriller AT Mississippi St.  Auburn is foaming at the mouth to get their new coach his first collegiate victory.

The Aggies have lost five in a row as well, two of which were to a supremely flawed Florida team at Kyle Field and at South Carolina who just lost to Missouri at home.  They appear to have quit on their extremely overpaid head coach Jimbo Fisher and have absolutely no answer at QB. 

I don’t see this team going into Jordan Hare Stadium, at night, and beating a hungry Auburn team this week.  Take the Tigers.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile