CFB Week 12 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

Become a member of Bet Karma Premium today!  Our Premium services are incredible and a true must have for any daily gambler.  From Props to Futures to Daily Fantasy, we'll guide you through everything you need start to finish.  Get started for under $1 a day right now!

 

Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 11 Record: 4-1 / Overall: 25-25-1 (49%)

It was my birthday last weekend and my biggest gift was a 4-1 weekend for Bet Karma!

We start in the Noon slate where my two giant underdogs won easily, one of them outright.

Navy (+15.5) vs. Notre Dame was a tale of two halves and luckily for us, the Midshipmen don’t know the word quit.  Down by 20+, Navy stormed back only to fall by two.  I salute you men.

At some point we’ll need to stop calling UConn (+14) a plucky underdog and anoint them a solid football team.  They went back and forth with an 8-1 Liberty squad coming off a win against the SEC’s Arkansas, ultimately winning the game in front of their home fans (and money line bettors).

We split the 3:30 PM window with an easy Oklahoma St/Iowa St (Under 49) win coupled with a disgusting Georgia Tech (PK) loss.  G Tech proved to be bigger quitters than a Miami team who desperately needed to show they had a pulse.

At night we followed an utter rock fight between Auburn (-1.5) and Texas A&M.  This was one of those games you wait to see if there’s a personal foul coupled with a brawl after every whistle.  Ultimately the Tigers hung on to secure interim coach Cadillac Williams his first collegiate victory.  War Eagle indeed.

It is truly wild that I am exactly even after 50+ picks.  This is the week we peak over the edge of mediocrity and finish strong!

 

Week 12

 

5. Florida AT Vanderbilt (+14 -110) - 12 PM – SECN

Vandy won an SEC game!  Something they haven’t done in the last 26 conference matchups.

Normally I’d want to avoid betting a team coming off such a big win but when I saw they were getting two TDs at home vs Florida I spit my drink out.  How does this make sense?

Don’t get me wrong Vanderbilt is still a sorry football team but they’ve only gotten truly blown out by Alabama and Georgia.  As is tradition.  I see them taking the swagger from last week’s Kentucky victory into this game and keeping it close throughout.

Florida is coming into this game winners of two in a row and absolutely smashed South Carolina last week.  However, they have shrunk to their competition before and 14 points is way too much in my opinion for a sleepy 11 AM local time kickoff in Nashville.

 

4. Texas AT Kansas (+9 -110) - 3:30 PM - FS1

I’m back on the darling Jayhawks of KU this week.

It has been a storybook season for Kansas and not without its hurdles.  After losing star QB Jalon Daniels for the season mid-year, they could have gotten down and limped to the end.  Instead, they have been next man up, and a couple weeks ago beat Oklahoma St to ensure their bid into Bowl Season for the first time since 2008. 

Man, what can I say about Texas.  The main word is ‘disappointing’ for sure.  Another year where analysts and fans alike shouted from the rooftops that “Texas was BACK!”  Unfortunately, it’s been more of the same for the Longhorns. 

Last week, they shrunk in a huge moment at home against #4 TCU as a 7-point favorite.  The game was a surprising snooze fest and highly acclaimed QB Quinn Ewers was atrocious.  He completed just 17 of 39 passes for 171 yards while not recording an offensive TD for his team.  In his last three games, he’s completed just 45.4% of his passes. 

I see the Jayhawks being up for this game in a big way and giving Texas all they can handle in a tight game in Lawrence, KS.

 

3. Iowa (+3 -110) AT Minnesota - 4 PM - FOX

Iowa is an offensive juggernaut all a sudden!

I kid, but let’s look at their last three games where they’ve averaged 27 points per game.  Not shockingly, all three were wins.  The Hawkeyes have figured something out with both their pass and run game and is not an ‘auto-three and out’ any longer.  QB Spencer Petras has managed the game and not made any mistakes which has led to success on the offensive end.

Minnesota is also winners of three in a row against the lap dogs of the B10 West.  They have done what they do, which is run the ball.  All world RB Mohamed Ibrahim is healthy and carving opposing defenses up at will.  But, will he have holes the size of an ocean against a stout Iowa defense?  I say no.

This game is going to be like watching paint dry with an astounding O/U of 31.5, so you might as well have a rooting interest.  I saw this game as a pick em’ so I’ll gladly take the 3 points.

 

2. #14 Ole Miss AT Arkansas (UNDER 64.5 -105) - 7:30 PM – SECN

How miserable is Lane Kiffin that he has to play in freezing cold Fayetteville Saturday night?

The boys from ‘The Grove’ are coming into this game bummed after losing to Alabama last week at home and missing out on their opportunity to represent the SEC West in the title game.  Not only that, they are such a fraud top 15 team. 

As you know I’ve bet against Ole Miss most of this year, to varying degrees of success.  Normally, I’d go over in the Rebels games but this one is incredibly clear to me that points will be at a premium.

I touched on it in the open but it is going to be cold tomorrow night in Arkansas.  Not just cold, it’s going to be freezing temps as low as 17 degrees.  I fully expect both teams to grind out long drives and not go near 60 points.

Arkansas was once an over machine, but over the past couple of weeks they’re game totals have averaged 31.5 points.  Their defense has stepped up and balled of late and I feel like they’ll have something for QB Jaxson Dart and the Rebels. 

Their QB KJ Jefferson is slated to return in this game and I would slightly lean on the Razorbacks as an outright winner but I expect both teams to sustain drives and keep this game comfortably under the total.

 

1. #22 Oklahoma St (+7.5 -120) AT Oklahoma - 7:30 PM – ABC

It is incredibly sad that this is what “Bedlam” has become.

What was once my absolute favorite game to bet on every year has turned into two fledgling powers just trying to get to the end of the season. 

Somehow Oklahoma St is still ranked in the top 25, probably so they can provide TCU a stronger win.  Regardless, their rival Sooners shouldn’t be favored by a TD over anyone.

OK St QB Spencer Sanders said he will not miss this game for anything and I expect the Cowboys to come in gun’s blazing (pun intended) and provide us the madness we’ve come to love in this game. 

The Sooners enter this game losers of two in a row and questions of if head coach Brent Venables is the guy are raining from the sky.  To say it’s been a forgotten season in Norman is putting it very lightly.  When the expectations are College Football Playoff or bust, a 5-5 season will make rowdy boosters asking for heads to roll.  It’ll be interesting to see if the team plays for their coach in these remaining two games.  It seems impossible to envision a bowl season without the Sooners but I wouldn’t be shocked if they drop both.

Usually, the over is an auto bet for me, but both teams have had games where the offenses struggle so I’m going to take Oklahoma St and the 7.5 points instead.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile