NFL Week 11 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 10 Record: 3-2 / Overall: 22-25-3 (44%)

Last Sunday should have been our day!

Nothing like waking up, grabbing your coffee, and realizing you have an under play overseas that is locked up by halftime.  That was the case with our Bucs/Seahawks Under 45 in Munich, Germany. 

I loaded up the 1 PM slate and was cruising to a 4-0 start.

The Titans (-2.5) took care of their business at home vs Russ and the lowly Broncos.  The Steelers (+1) continued their dominating ways under coach Mike Tomlin after a bye and beat the Saints outright as a home dog. 

Finally, there were the Bears (-3), sitting pretty up 14 points at home to the Lions.  A Lions team who has never won a road game under Dan Campbell.  Unfortunately for us, Cairo Santos missed an XP late which proved to be the difference in 31-30 loss in Chi-town.  Kickers…

Still sad about the Bears beat, here came the Raiders (-4) to pound me deeper into submission.  My God are they a badly coached football team.  How you let a guy who was a TV analyst a week prior, come into your building and beat you is beyond me.  Put Vegas in the gambling graveyard.

 

Week 11

 

5. Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) AT Los Angeles Chargers – 8:20 PM – NBC

I know, I know.  I said I wouldn’t pick primetime games anymore.

I also told myself that I wouldn’t bet the Chiefs, especially on the road, because it feels like they haven’t covered in the history of football.  But listen, it was a tough week to make the Top 5 and I have my reasons.

First and foremost, the Chargers have been decimated by injuries on the offensive and defensive lines.  They haven’t been able to plug their Joey Bosa sized hole on the strong side and they’ve had to IR THREE defensive tackles in the past 10 days.  You simply can’t beat Patrick Mahomes with no d line.  Mainly because if you blitz him, he’ll kill you.

On the offensive side, the Chargers aren’t much healthier.  WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are expected to return but that won’t help much when they have two offensive linemen playing as rookies.  One of which is a 6th round pick getting only his 2nd career start in Left Tackle, Jamaree Salyer. 

I know the Chargers keep these Chiefs games close most of the time, but that is the only reason this spread is under 7.  What happened to the AFC West…?  It was supposed to be a can’t miss division in 2022.  Those QBs they said! 

I’ll lay the points with the healthier and overall much better team in KC who is looking to wrap up another division title before December.

 

4. Dallas Cowboys (-1.5 -110) AT Minnesota Vikings – 4:25 PM – FOX

This line stinks to high heaven!

The Vikings, coming off one of the greatest regular season games these eyes have ever seen, are in THEIR building and GETTING points against the Cowboys?!

How are the Vikings, who are tied for the best record in football, an underdog to a fledgling Dallas team who just choked away a victory against the hapless Packers?!

The Cowboys, who’s QB is playing like garbage, are favored on the road against a team that simply refuse to lose!?

Sorry for saying three sentences in succession that are essentially all the same with different emphasis’ but I needed the point to be made… this isn’t right. 

Or is it?

The Vikings DID have one of the most incredible comeback victories last week at Buffalo.  The Vikings ARE 8-1.  The Vikings are playing at home in the nationally televised 4:25 PM matchup.  The Cowboys did blow a great opportunity last week in Green Bay.  Dak is playing questionable football at best. 

And for all these reasons, THAT is why the Cowboys will win this game.

As a gambler, you get it…

 

3. Chicago Bears (+3 -120) AT Atlanta Falcons – 1 PM – FOX

I’m back on the Bears this week.  I can’t help myself.

The Falcons glass slipper hasn’t just fallen off, it’s been ripped away and thrown into the ocean after that putrid performance in Carolina last week.  I simply can’t block out that meme of Marcus Mariota throwing the football while laying on the ground.  I understand they are still in the thick of an NFC South race, but at what point do they see what rookie QB Desmond Ritter can do?

The Bears are SO close to getting over the top!  They’ve lost three in a row, the last two by a measly 4 points total.  QB Justin Fields continues to be a human highlight reel and appears to be “The Guy” for Chicago.  I know a lot of fans are probably fine with the losing while also sensing their QB is for real…  But, at some point you want him to mix in a W to show he can win in the clutch.

This is the week. 

I don’t see any scenario where Atlanta will be able to stop the Bears offense and they won’t score enough to go blow for blow with them either.  Give me the 3 points but I’ll be betting the Bears money-line as well.

 

2. Cincinnati Bengals AT Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5 -110) – 4:25 PM – CBS

Another week, another amazing Mike Tomlin betting stat, another Steelers bet in the Top 5.

Tomlin enters Sunday afternoon 5-0-2 against the AFC North as a home underdog.  I know that sounds like a lot of incredibly specific details but to me, it says a whole lot. 

Every year the division is the most important six games you play.  The teams know each other better than anyone else, especially if you’re a coach who has been there for a decade+ like Tomlin.  The fact that year after year he’s able to get his team up as an underdog, in front of their fans, and always cover is a side of history I want to be on.

Also, defensive player of the year TJ Watt was welcomed back last week.  Joe Burrow still sees Watt and the rest of the Steelers D Line in his nightmares after they bludgeoned the young stud QB in Week 1.  The Bengals are coming off some much-needed rest but there will still be no Ja’Marr Chase on the outside to bail out Burrow.

This is going to be an old school AFC North rivalry rock fight and I want the home dog with the better coach and trends.

 

1. Detroit Lions AT New York Giants (-3 -110) – 1 PM – FOX

It has taken me 11 weeks to finally say, “The Giants may be a great covering football team.”

Every week I think to myself that the Giants line makes no sense.  They must be trying to trick me.  So, I take the other side or stay away altogether.  Not this time!

The Giants are 7-2 (7-2 ATS) and are at home against a dome Lions team who are trying to win their 3rd game in a row.  That sentence alone has a few head scratchers.  First of all, the Lions have an attempt at three wins in a row?  Is Dan Campbell still the coach? 

After not having a road win in his Lions tenure, Campbell went into Chicago and ended up the last team standing in a 31-30 shootout with the Bears.  This was after a shocking win against the Packers the previous week.  I just simply can’t get my head around them winning again, this time on the road against a great defense with huge standings implications on the line.

RB Saquon Barkley is having a tremendous season for Big Blue and entered Week 11 leading the NFL in rushing yards.  The Lions have won a couple in a row, but they STILL remain a historically bad defense.  They rank dead last in yards per game allowed and its not even remotely close (16.7 yards worse than the 31st ranked team). 

I expect the Giants to slow down the Lions above average offense, run the football, and grind this game down to a crawl en route to a 24-7 victory.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile