CFB Week 13 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Happy Thanksgiving to all the loyal Bet Karma readers and subscribers!  We are incredibly thankful for you!  Now let’s get some winners.

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 12 Record: 2-3 / Overall: 27-28-1 (48.2%)

Its Thanksgiving night so I’m going to keep the recap short and sweet.

Vanderbilt (+14) was the easiest win of the century as they beat a dead dog Florida team outright.  Hope y’all threw a couple bucks on the money line as well!

Kansas (+9) was the complete opposite as those boys didn’t show up at all against Texas.  Thankfully, Iowa (+3) was another outright winner for one of my dog picks.  I regret the 3 hours I spent watching that 13-10 shootout.   

Speaking of shootouts, the Ole Miss/Arkansas under 64.5 was exactly that.  The line moved all the way up to 67.5 by kickoff and I knew we were in trouble. 

Only more heartbreak in the night slate as OK St (+7.5) flat out didn’t show up for their biggest rivalry game of the season.  No team has been more head scratching than the Cowboys.  I’m OUT on them.

I hope you all enjoyed your holiday, are heating up those leftovers, and have those sweatpants on tight.  Let’s win some money on what is a fantastic final weekend of the regular season.

I’m going to ripping these picks from the gut with some sharp trends.  I feel best when I’m doing that and its going to help us get over the top of 50% for the season.

 

Week 13

5. Oregon AT Oregon St (+3 -110) - SATURDAY - 3:30 PM - ABC

The Civil War is one of the more under the radar, yet extremely compelling rivalry games.

The Beavers have had a tremendous season and come into this game 8-3.  Unfortunately for them, all of their losses came inside the PAC 12 so they can’t make the title game.  However, Oregon can.

If the Ducks win, they are into the PAC 12 championship game next week.  My thing with them is, are they going to be able to match the intensity of their in-state rival, in their building, when the playoff was lost a couple weeks ago? 

Corvallis is going to be rocking Saturday early afternoon local time and I see them grinding this game down to their pace, frustrating QB Bo Nix, and keeping the score razor close. 

This line has moved a full point and the sharps are piling in on the Beavers.  Get it in quick!

 

4. Tennessee AT Vanderbilt (+14 -120) - SATURDAY - 7:30 PM - SEC Network

I’m BACK on the Commodores this week!

Riding incredibly high after two straight SEC wins, Vandy has a lot of spunk.  They are managing the clock, scoring TDs on offense, and not completely breaking down on the defensive side like years past. 

Tennessee, I mean listen, I’ve been a Vols supporter all year.  I was extremely excited about seeing a new orange running wild in the Playoff.  Unfortunately, football is a brutal game.  When super star QB Hendon Hooker tore his ACL in South Carolina last week and the scoreboard read Gamecocks: 63 (SIXTY-THREE!!), I saw a team that had lost its spirit in a blink of an eye.

Backup QB Joe Milton is under center now and to say it’s a STEEP drop-off in both awareness and arm talent is the understatement of the century.  I would be shocked if Tennessee can pick themselves back up off the turf and blow out a frisky Commodores squad.

Give me Vandy in Nashville and the 14 points.

 

3. Arkansas AT Missouri (+4 -110) - FRIDAY - 3:30 PM - CBS

We have ourselves a spot play!

Arkansas just destroyed Ole Miss 42-27 (and it wasn’t even that close) last week at home in freezing cold Fayetteville.  They have their QB KJ Jefferson back and have clinched their spot in Bowl Season.

Missouri, on the other hand, is sitting at 5-6 and need this game to advance their season.  Not only that, they’re a pretty damn good football team.  Let us not forget they beat South Carolina on the road and played Georgia to their closest game of the season 26-22.  They play sound, if not fantastic defense at times and will be highly motivated in this Friday afternoon tilt.

I think Missou wins this game outright and I’ll gladly take the 4 points.

 

2. Kansas AT Kansas St (-11.5 -110) - SATURDAY - 8 PM - FOX

K St has had a truly fantastic season.

They’ve lost three games by 3 scores combined and don’t get me started on that TCU game where they lost their 1st AND 2nd string QB up by 20.  That one hurt as a Wildcat bettor… but I digress.

Kansas showed who they were last week when they got blown out by Texas at home as a member of the Top 5.  They tore the field goal posts down when they became bowl eligible and they are simply waiting to see who they’ll play in their first bowl game since 2008.  I don’t see any scenario where they’ll be motivated to win this game, on the road, against a supremely talented opponent.

My ONLY worry with this game is that if Texas loses earlier in the day to Baylor (they won’t), K St will have clinched their rightful spot in the Big 12 title game.  I’m betting the Longhorns will take care of business earlier in the day and the Wildcats will be ready to clinch on their own terms in front of their fans under the lights.

I expect Kansas St to run wild over Kansas’ porous run defense and control this game from start to finish.

 

1. Notre Dame (+5.5 -110) AT USC - SATURDAY - 7:30 PM - ABC

As soon as last week’s USC/UCLA thriller ended I told myself, “I’m scared how much I love Notre Dame next week.”

Guess what?  I’m still scared at how much I love ND this week!  I love them!  LOVE!!

Notre Dame has crawled themselves out of early season purgatory and now sit 8-3 and 15th in the country.  They embarrassed the ACC going 4-0 against them including a beatdown of national power Clemson a few weeks back.  They have flexed their defensive muscles at will and have squeezed the life out of their opponents.

Enter the Trojans of Southern Cal.  Yes, this is the best offense ND will have seen all year.  UNC has a tremendous offense as well but USC stands above them in my mind.  QB Caleb Williams is cooking to say the very least.  He has a real shot at winning the Heisman and honestly, if he even has a decent performance Saturday, I think he SHOULD win. 

USC also has absolutely everything to lose in this game.  They sit at #6 and are an impressive win and an LSU loss to Georgia next week from entering the college football playoff in my opinion.

Offense has never been an issue for Williams, head coach Lincoln Reilly, and the Trojans.  Their glaring issue is their defense.  If you can call it that.  They rank 200th in total yards and 196th in points allowed.  They don’t even PRETEND to play defense. 

I see this game being played on the Irish’s terms.  Smash mouth and suffocating with a few big plays sprinkled in.  This will be the complete opposite of the shootout in LA last week and with the immense pressure on SC’s shoulders, I see them crumbling.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile