NFL Week 12 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 11 Record: 1-3-1 / Overall: 23-28-4 (41.8%)

Welp, it wasn’t a good week 10.

My Bears (+3) obsession is clinical at this point.  I can’t quit this team!  Once again, they were up late.  Once again, they lost on a game winning field goal.  Justin Fields is the entire team and they don’t have a lick of winning mentality yet.

The Cowboys (-1.5) proved to be the cakewalk I predicted showing yet again that the Vikings are frauds against great NFC teams. 

Other than that, it was all sadness in the Top 5.

The Giants (-3) looked awful at home against Detroit possibly looking ahead at their turkey day matchup in Dallas.  The Steelers (+3.5) couldn’t stop Joe Burrow and went down in a shocking shootout in Pittsburgh.  Finally, the Chiefs (-5.5) are allergic to covering football games as they came back to beat LA in a thriller while also showing the world that Patrick Mahomes is never dead.

We’re onto Week 12.

 

Week 12

 

5. Baltimore Ravens AT Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5 -110) - 1 PM - CBS

This is the “stink line” game of the week.

The Ravens are on their way to another AFC North title and have favorable Super Bowl odds as well.  The Jags have lost 6 of their past 7 games.  So why on God’s green Earth is this line only 3.5?

Baltimore looked like slop last week against the hapless Panthers.  They really didn’t start playing until the 4th quarter and are dealing with a bunch of injuries.  Pro Bowl TE Mark Andrews is still working his way back from a few ailments, Bateman is out for the year and yet again, Lamar has questionable if not bad weapons at his disposal.  Baltimore’s defense has gotten better as the year has worn on and they’ve needed to.

The public is all over the Ravens yet the line moved from -4 to -3.5.  That raises my eyebrows.  Jacksonville has been in close games all year long and I’m betting that this is another one.

 

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3 -120) AT Cleveland Browns - 1 PM - FOX

Tom Brady off a bye?  I’m auto betting it.

Brady has an 84% winning percentage and 67% covering percentage with 8 days off or more.  That’s insane for as long as he has played.  Of course, every Brady record is insane, but I digress.

The Bucs seemed to have righted the ship after winning two straight and have found themselves on top of the porous NFC South.  I don’t anticipate them relinquishing this lead, especially in this game vs the broken Cleveland Browns.

The Brownies want to run the ball and limit QB Jacoby Brissett’s liability.  The problem for them is the Bucs still have a bunch of dudes on the defensive side of the ball who will make everything difficult for Nick Chubb and that running game.  Of note, this will likely be Brissett’s last game as a starter with Deshaun Watson’s suspension ending next week.  I see him going out on his sword aka making a ton of ill-timed mistakes.

I expect this game to be a tough watch and would lean under in this one.  But give me the Bucs to cover the 3, extending Brady’s crazy numbers, and powering towards the last 5 games of their season.

 

3. Cincinnati Bengals AT Tennessee Titans (+1 -110) - 1 PM - CBS

The Titans stay disrespected.

All this team does is win football games.  Over the past 8 games they are 7-1 straight up and 8-0 against the spread.  Their only loss is an overtime heartbreaker to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in KC.  They are also coming off a 10-day rest after handling the Packers in Lambeau last week.  QB Ryan Tannehill played one of his best games as a Titan in that game and the run game is lethal.

There is also a major revenge factor in this game as Cincy upset Tennessee in last year’s divisional round 19-16.  The Titans have circled this game since May and they’re going to be foaming at the mouth to avenge that loss.

The Bengals are also playing extremely well and I do anticipate this being one of the best games of the weekend.  Burrow is rolling and star WR Ja’Marr Chase may be back for this game.  Unfortunately, he’ll be tagging OUT RB Joe Mixon who is out with a concussion.  I think they’ll miss what he brings immensely.  The o-line still stinks and the Titans front 7 is one of the best in the league.

I had this as a 3-point line in favor of Tennessee so you can imagine my surprise that I was getting a point with the home team.

 

2. Chicago Bears AT New York Jets (-6.5 -125) - 1 PM - FOX

They bench their QB amongst incredible amounts of turmoil and I’m betting the Jets?

Yes, yes I am.

The Bears, as you well know, have been my bugaboo over the past several weeks.  I’m finally quitting them this week for many reasons.  First and foremost, QB Justin Fields is banged up and banged up bad.  Rightfully so!  He’s been the ENTIRE Bears offense for a month now.  As of this moment, he is highly questionable to play.  They did activate a 3rd QB which tells me (and Vegas) that he is not going to suit up Sunday.

Without Fields, the Bears go from a frisky team that’s in every game, to a very bad football team.  Their defense is atrocious, their offensive line is invisible, and their weapons are play toys.

New York is down bad after a brutal loss on a punt return at the buzzer last week to New England.  Not only that, they have benched 2nd overall pick Zach Wilson in favor of Mike White.  What this told me is that head coach Robert Saleh felt he needed to make the change to galvanize his locker room.  I think it will do just that.

The Jets boast a very good defense and I do lean under in this game as well but I’m going to take the Jets -6.5 at higher juice to get a victory by a TD.

 

1. Las Vegas Raiders AT Seattle Seahawks (-4 -110) – 4:05 PM – CBS

It was brutal last week not being able to bet on my ‘Hawks!

I love Seattle and we’ve cashed on them a bunch this year.  I won on their under last game as well but that game was in Germany so their loss doesn’t count… The Seahawks will be fresh as a daisy coming off their bye and the Raiders are the perfect lame duck for them to beat.

Las Vegas finally won a game last week against the even more disjointed Broncos in overtime.  Their offense was able to flex in crunch time behind their superstars RB Josh Jacobs and WR Davante Adams.  Jacobs was hit with a questionable tag midweek and will be battling some injuries if he plays in this game.  They’re going to need him.

I’m a broken record on Seattle but I’ll reiterate again, they are one of the most efficient teams in the league.  QB Geno Smith is still close to an auto completion right now and RB Kenneth Walker is punishing defenders.  The defense is no slouch either! 

They play extremely hard, especially at home, and I’ll gladly lay the 4 points with them this week.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile