CFB Championship Week - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 12 Record: 3-2 / Overall: 30-30-1 (49.2%)

There is something special about being dead even (less juice) at the end of my first College Football Regular Season for Bet Karma.  Don’t get me wrong, it’s not near good enough for any of us, but it made me laugh.

We started with an easy win outright for underdog Missouri (+4).  This game went exactly as I expected as Arkansas simply didn’t want the win as bad as the Tigers.

Oregon St (+3) was one of the most improbable comeback win and covers you’ll ever see.  Down the entire game, the Beavers stormed back to upend rival Oregon in Corvallis.

I went to the Vandy (+14) well one too many times as they got waxed by Tennessee showing the Vols are still going to be tough to beat in a New Years 6 Bowl Game.  More heartbreak loomed with Notre Dame (+5.5) in the night slate with the likely Heisman winner QB Caleb Williams stuffing SportsCenter with highlight after highlight.  I stand by that ND would have covered this game had they not fumbled going in on the first drive of the 2nd half.  Not meant to be.

We finished the weekend with an easy K St (-11.5) win over rival Kansas.  I still haven’t decided if I’m going to bet the Big 12 title game but it will undoubtedly be an amazing matchup between the Wildcats and TCU this weekend.

 

Championship Week

5. Sun Belt Title Game – Coastal Carolina AT Troy (Under 48 -110) – 3:30 PM – ESPN

This is a gross pick in what is going to be a gross football game.

As awesome as the “Fun Belt” has been this year, Troy has been the class of the conference.  What does Troy do better than anyone else in the Sun Belt?  Play great defense.

The Trojans rank in the top 50 in both yards allowed, pass yds allowed and rush yds allowed while giving up only 16.8 points per game.  On the other side of the ball, they haven’t lit up any scoreboards against able bodied opponents.

Coastal has developed themselves into a very good program and really survived most of this season through crucial injuries.  None bigger than starting QB Grayson McCall who has been out the last month and is trending towards not playing in this game as well.

I see Troy imposing their will and watching the clock tick down with under 48 points on the scoreboard.

 

4. MAC Title Game – Toledo VS Ohio (+3 -110) – 12 PM – ESPN

MACTION!

I LOVE the MAC and I thank them every year for providing us wild football on Tuesday and Wednesday nights.  I had to have their title game in my Championship Week Top 5.

Ohio is 9-3 and have won 7 in a row.  The Rockets of Toledo are crawling into this matchup losers of their last two as 10+ point favorites in both games.  I didn’t even have to look that up, because I bet them, and just shook my head all night long.  Toledo has a ton of talent but sometimes you are what your record says you are and they’re a disappointing 7-5.

Ohio is being disrespected with this line and I see them going into Detroit’s Ford Field and winning the MAC title they so rightfully deserve.

 

3. ACC Title Game – #23 North Carolina (+7.5) VS #9 Clemson – 8 PM – ABC

That Clemson loss to South Carolina last week felt like a turn of the program.

Actually, both Clemson’s losses this year were incredibly uncharacteristic.  They just don’t seem to have the weapons they’ve had for the last 8 years or so.  It starts at the Quarterback position. 

The Tigers have been trying to figure it out all season long and Dabo’s hesitance to pull DJ Uiagalelei for good has proved to be the death knell.  They’ve teased the change but haven’t gone all in and to me, that’s why this season will be remembered as a waste by their standards.

UNC comes into this title game after a heartbreaking loss to a rival as well.  They were able to take NC St into overtime after being down most of the game but ultimately fell short.

Clemson most likely already knows they’re out of the college football playoff by now but they definitely will know by 8 pm Saturday night.  I don’t see any scenario where they’ll be as motivated as the Tar Heels to show out on primetime TV.  QB Drake Maye will keep UNC in this matchup throughout and may even steal an ACC Championship banner as well.

 

2. Mountain West Title Game – Fresno St (+3 -110) AT Boise St – 4 PM – FOX

Fresno has been lights out the last several weeks.

Since QB Jake Haener returned from injury on October 29th, he has thrown 13 TDs to only 2 INTs leading the Bulldogs to six straight victories.  If he didn’t get hurt against USC back in September, this game would definitely be in California instead of the blue turf in Boise.

The Broncos have had another strong season under head coach Andy Avalos.  They have beaten mostly everyone they were supposed to (except a random slip up to UTEP) including a 40-20 win against Fresno St back in early October. 

Haener did not play in that game and the backup Logan Fife had one of the worst games you’ll ever see a QB have.  14/25, 134 yds, 2 INTs.  That won’t get it done against my high school JV team, let alone Boise in their building.

I see Haener being the difference here and although I wish this title game was being played on a neutral field, I’ll gladly take the 3 points with the Bulldogs.

 

1. Big 12 Title Game – #10 Kansas St VS #3 TCU (Over 62 -110) – 12 PM – FOX

You thought I was actually going to fade the game of the weekend??  No way.

What a whirlwind season it’s been for the Big 12.  For my money, this has been the most level conference top to bottom with tons of stories up and down the standings.  Whether it was Kansas breaking their 14-year bowl season drought, or Oklahoma crumbling under their new coach, or OK St and Texas being the epitome of Jekyll & Hyde, the Big 12 has been must see TV. 

It all comes down to this. 

#10 vs #3.  A College Football Playoff berth on the line for TCU.  A Wildcats team who had the Frogs beaten before they lost their top two QBs 6 weeks ago.  K St’s run game vs Max Duggan’s air attack.  The storylines are endless.

TCU has FINALLY won me over in recent weeks after months of being a non-believer.  I’m embarrassed by how many times I’ve bet against them this season.  All they do is win (and cover)!  I believe Duggan should and will be invited to New York for the Heisman ceremony as he has been tremendous all season.

K St has been a darling of the Top 5 all year and I absolutely love watching them play.  But I’m finding myself hoping TCU finishes the job.  They DESERVE to have a spot in the playoff.  Period. 

Picking a side in this game is a personal rock meets hard place so I’m going with the over.  I fully expect this game to be electric from start to finish and cannot WAIT to watch it.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile