NFL Week 13 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 12 Record: 2-3 / Overall: 25-31-4 (41.7%)

Another whirlwind NFL week in the Top 5.

First, the good.  The Jets (-6.5) was easy money with the Bears not disclosing their QB until kickoff and Mike White being a Joe Montana clone.  Man, did that Chicago defense make him look great. 

Sometimes you need some luck in this world and the Jags (+3.5) provided us a gift going for two at the buzzer to beat the Ravens outright.  I thought we had this game covered a few times so it felt really good to be on the right side.

Another game I thought was in the bag was the Bucs (-3).  Up 17-10 and more or less dominating the game, they kept striking out in the money downs.  The Browns, to their credit, took those opportunities and capitalized in not only covering the game, but winning with a walk-off Nick Chubb TD in overtime.

Finishing up the 1 PM slate was my Titans (+1) who just couldn’t find their way into the endzone, ultimately attempting 4 field goals and missing 1.  Tennessee had plenty of opportunities to win but Cincy may just be their kryptonite.

The glass slipper fell off my Seahawks (-4) last week as they lost in OT to Vegas.  Josh Jacobs couldn’t be stopped and although we had a 7-point lead mid 4th quarter, this game was always the winner will be whomever has the ball last. 

 

Week 13

 

5. Washington Commanders AT New York Giants (+2 -110) – 1 PM – FOX

Taylor Heinicke is such a baller.  This is a confirmed, fact.

However, is he just going to win EVERY game?  The Commanders are 5-1 in his starts and the loss was a gift by the refs on a field goal infraction leading to a Vikings TD late.  This pick is simply a “things have to level out” type of bet.

The Giants are coming off long rest after losing (but covering!) on Thanksgiving in Dallas.  Saquon is still finding the end zone and the defense is still playing extremely hard.  They naturally will play better at home against a common foe.

The Giants and the Top 5 have not meshed well at all this season.  I picked against them early during their hot start and picked with them during their recent swoon.  However, I’ll take the 2 points at home in a “grind ‘em out” NFC East battle.

 

4. Jacksonville Jaguars AT Detroit Lions (-1 -110) – 1 PM – CBS

Many thanks to Doug Pederson for that ballsy 2-pt conversion to beat the Ravens last week.  However, I’m going against him this week.

The Lions are on extra rest and have won three of their past 4 games.  They even had the mighty Bills on the ropes while the turkey was being carved last Thursday until Josh Allen’s arm talent took over for a game winning FG.

Detroit’s QB Jared Goff has shockingly been sacked the fewest number of times (17) amongst Quarterbacks with 10 starts.  The run game has been excellent behind Jamal Williams 13 TDs on the ground and they play much better at home.

The Jags, as I mentioned a couple of times, are coming off a truly wild and emotional home win against a division leader.  They’re such a young and inexperienced team that isn’t ready to put a streak together and the letdown is imminent.  I want to be a part of it.

 

3. New York Jets (+3 -115) AT Minnesota Vikings – 1 PM – CBS

As long as the Vikings are playing decent teams, I’m going to bet against them.

Great defense travels and the Jets have a phenomenal one.  They fly to the ball, have an exceptional defensive backfield and haven’t let up 200 yards passing in four straight games.  QB Mike White will undoubtedly come back down to Earth this week with more tape available but I think he’ll be able to put some points on the board nonetheless.

The Vikings can’t run the ball averaging around 70 yards of late.  I like the Jets odds of holding Minny into another one score game.  Speaking of, the Vikes have won by one possession in eight of their nine wins.  They don’t blow anyone out.  Give me the 3 points in a game I think the Jets can steal outright.

 

2. Los Angeles Chargers AT Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5 -110) – 4:25 PM – CBS

The Chargers are the most consistently overvalued team these eyes have ever seen.

LA and coach Brandon Staley have no clue how to beat teams comfortably yet the public is obsessed with them.  I don’t get it.  The Raiders are pretty much the same except they have momentum on their side coming off two straight walk off overtime wins.

This pick is based on many factors.  Vegas doesn’t turn the ball over.  They have only 9 giveaways which is the best in the league.  They have the NFL’s leading rusher in Josh Jacobs going against the worst rush defense over the past month+.  In fact, the Chargers have given up an astounding 150+ rush yards in five straight games!

But here is the main factor, and it mirrors my top pick to come: The Money.

This line opened up as Chargers -2 and has moved ALL THE WAY to Raiders -2.5 with the sharps still 50/50 even on the line change. 

The “Black and Silver” have figured out the winning formula after going through a depressing ringer in one score losses early this season.  I see this game ending up just like Week 17 last year when the Raiders beat LA in a defacto play-in game for the playoffs. 

 

1. Miami Dolphins AT San Francisco 49ers (-4.5 -110) – 4:05 PM – CBS

I’m on my cross-country trip game again!

This time its Miami traveling to the red-hot 49ers.  A Niners team who simply don’t let opponents score on them.  In their four-game winning streak since acquiring RB Christian McCaffrey, they have let up; carry the two… ZERO points in the 2nd half in each game!  That’s insane.

The Dolphins have been one of the NFL’s darlings and much has been said about their undefeated record when QB Tua Tagovailoa starts.  However, let’s look at their last five wins.  Texans, Browns, Bears, Lions, and Steelers.  Those teams are a combined 16-39-1.  Listen, I’m a big “you can only play who’s on your schedule” type guy but that has to be mentioned.

San Fran is a massive step up in competition for the Phins to say the least.

Most importantly let’s look at the money again.  The public is pounding their beloved Dolphins yet somehow the line has moved up from -3.5 to -4.5.  How do you explain that?

The sharps love the Niners and so do I.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile