NFL Week 14 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

Become a member of Bet Karma Premium today!  Our Premium services are incredible and a true must have for any daily gambler.  From Props to Futures to Daily Fantasy, we'll guide you through everything you need start to finish.  Get started for under $1 a day right now!

 

Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 13 Record: 4-1 / Overall: 29-32-4 (44.6%)

We were SO close to a clean sweep in the NFL Top 5 in Week 13.

If the Jets (+3) didn’t puke on themselves on the goal line last week, we would have had it!  Unfortunately for us, the Vikings are still the luckiest team to ever exist.  We did hit our Minny Over Win Total though!

The rest of the day was perfection.

The Giants (+2) battled tooth and nail for a tie (yes, a tie) at home vs Washington.  Good teams tie, great teams cover.  Thanks New York!

Meanwhile in Detroit, the Lions (-1) are certified scorching.  They beat down the Jags and the offense is rolling.  May see them again down below…

The winning continued in the 4 PM slate, first with the Raiders (-2.5). I’ll never forgive Vegas for knocking me out of my survivor pool this past Thursday against the Rams, but last Sunday they took care of business in division vs the other LA team.  The Chargers remain one of the world’s greatest mysteries.

The Dolphins finally played a real defense and they finally got exposed.  The 49ers (-4.5) lost Jimmy G early on but didn’t relinquish the lead.  Mr. Irrelevant QB Brock Purdy managed the rest of the game beautifully and coach Kyle Shanahan remains one of the league’s best.

 

Week 14

 

5. Kansas City Chiefs AT Denver Broncos (+9 -110) – 4:05 PM – CBS

Gross Bet Alert!!  In fact, there’s a few perceivable gross bets on this week’s Top 5.

The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the league.  On the other side, the Broncos have gone from borderline unwatchable to I’d rather claw my eyes out than see another Russ incomplete pass.  So why in God’s green Earth am I backing Denver this week?

It’s simple, the public LOVES the Chiefs and more obviously, LOVES Mahomes.  I get it.  No player is more fun to back.  However, a lot is made about Mahomes’ 32-5 record straight up in November/December games as a pro.  Guess what he is against the spread?  17-18-2.  That’s Dave Costabile Top 5 type numbers! 

Credit to me for getting ahead of that one.

This is the quintessential close your eyes and hit submit on your Broncos bet and pray the Chiefs continue to mess around enough to win by 8 or less on the road.

 

4. Baltimore Ravens AT Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5 -110) – 1 PM – CBS

One of the best rivalries in all of sports is back this week in the AFC North.

This one is tricky because I don’t know if the Ravens are that much different with Huntley at the helm than they were with Lamar.  Sounds crazy to say that but Jackson hasn’t been lighting the world on fire when healthy.

Huntley is a gamer and won’t necessarily hurt the Ravens offense.  I just don’t believe they’ll have enough firepower to outscore a Pittsburgh team who is playing much better since the bye.

QB Kenny Pickett is fun to watch.  He’ll make rookie mistakes but he’s undoubtedly tough and can make plays both with his arm and legs.  WR George Pickens has emerged as a go-to guy for Pickett and dinged up WR Diontae Johnson will be active for the Steelers. 

This is going to be a tough watch, as most of these games are between the Steelers and Ravens.  The under is so ungodly low that I couldn’t go that route and wish ill will on everyone’s eyeballs.  I’ll give the point and a half with the home team and hope a returning Chris Boswell hits the game winner as the seconds tick off.

 

3. Miami Dolphins AT Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5 -110) – 8:20 PM – NBC

I told you this week was gross…

The Chargers are the most frustrating team to watch in years but there is a stark difference between LA as a favorite and LA as a dog.  The public is all over the visiting Dolphins who stayed on the west coast after losing to the Niners last week.  Miami has all the flashy toys and the MUCH better coach that makes this appear easy.

That’s why we’re on the other side. 

The Phins have me and you playing at offensive tackle this week as injuries have ravaged the trenches.  The Chargers have a lot of issues but d line hasn’t been one of them.  Look for them to chase Tua all day like San Fran did last week.

This line being 3 and the hook made me clinch this bet for this week.  Every scenario I dream up has this game finishing with a game winning kick.  We win in either scenario.  Take the points with the home team who finally have lost that public shine and is prime for an upset.

 

2. Cleveland Browns (+5.5 -110) AT Cincinnati Bengals – 1 PM – CBS

I’m betting against the red-hot Bengals too??  I’ve maybe gone too far.  Hear me out!

Joe Burrow is 0-4 against the Browns in his young career.  They simply have his number and when broken down its kind of easy to see why.  Cleveland’s front 7 is always their strength and studs like Myles Garrett always EAT against Cincy’s capable but leaky offensive line.

QB Deshaun Watson was awful last week as the Browns scored a TD every which way but offensively.  He can’t play any worse yet still has felt victory as a starter with his new team.  The Browns are going to do what they do, which is pound the rock and I see them having success on the ground Sunday.

The Bengals are coming off yet another impressive win against the heralded Chiefs last week and at some point, they’re going to let the foot off the gas.  I believe this number should be at least 1.5-2 points lower and the line beefing up to 5.5 shows public love inflation.  Especially within division.

I’ll take the 5.5 points and pray.

 

1. Minnesota Vikings AT Detroit Lions (-2 -110) – 1 PM – FOX

I must be a glutton for punishment because I’m back against the Vikings yet again.

Listen, Minnesota is the fraud of all frauds.  10-2 with NINE wins by 1 score?  How is that possible?  They have the worst point differential (+10) than any 10-2 team since the pigskin football was created. 

The Lions meanwhile are, as the kids say, “on one”.  They are playing inspired football for over a month now, especially at home, and actually have a wildcard at their fingertips.  The offense can score on anyone and now their playing a familiar team who just gave up nearly 500 yds to Mike White and the Jets?  The Jets, who punted ONE time last week and lost?!  How!?!  Because they couldn’t score a darn Touchdown.

Sorry, I’m clearly not over it…

Vegas is begging us to take the Vikings on the line and on the money-line.  Give me the other side playing behind a coach they clearly love to battle for and in front of their fans in what should be a raucous atmosphere at Ford Field. 

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile