NFL Week 15 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 14 Record: 3-2 / Overall: 32-34-4 (45.7%)

We scratched and clawed to a plus Week 14.

Starting in the early slate, the Lions (-2) exposed the Vikings as the frauds they are, winning by 11 at home.  It has to be incredibly fun to be Detroit fan right now which is not a statement I’ve said in my 37 years on this planet.

Unfortunately, the rest of the 1 PM games brought heartache as both AFC North teams I backed played awful football.  I will NOT be betting on the Browns (+5.5) again until Watson can prove he can complete a 3rd down pass.  In Pittsburgh, the Ravens were BEGGING the Steelers (-1.5) to win this game but sadly, once Kenny Pickett got hurt, we were dead.

The late games provided us with two winners.  One easy, the next one as improbable as it gets.

The Broncos (+9) were down 27-0 with 4 minutes left in the 2nd quarter and STORMED back to cover our spread like gentlemen.  Sometimes you need a little luck.

Under the lights in LA, we were able to put our feet up and enjoy a nice and easy outright winner for our Chargers (+3.5).  The Dolphins are in serious trouble moving forward as their schedule doesn’t let up and coaching wiz Mike McDaniel may be figured out.

No more bye weeks people so sit back and enjoy a full slate the rest of the season and let’s win some money!

 

Week 15

5. Tennessee Titans (+3 -115) AT Los Angeles Chargers – 4:25 PM – CBS

This is one of those classic “spot plays” I’ve talked about all year.

The Titans are down and they're down bad.  They are losers of three straight and have the Jags nipping at their heels in the AFC South race.  Tennessee hasn’t just lost games either, they’ve gotten SMOKED.  Problematic.

So why am I backing them?

This is a simple Titans as a dog, Chargers as a favorite deal.  Mike Vrabel has been an absolute killer as an underdog, especially on the road.  They’ve always traveled well because of their physicality both defensively and in the running game. 

The Chargers meanwhile may be coming into this game smelling themselves a bit after dismantling the Dolphins in primetime last Sunday.  They are firmly in the AFC wildcard race and are getting healthier.  However, let us not forget their run defense has been statistically awful all year.

You’re telling me I’m getting the much better coach, in desperate need of a win, who’s strengths oppose the other team’s weaknesses, AND three points.  I’m taking it.

 

4. New England Patriots AT Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5 -105) – 4:05 PM – FOX

After the Raiders (and Baker Mayfield) knocked me out of my survivor pool last week, it pained me beyond belief to bold their name above.  But here we are.

Vegas had one of the most all time collapses these eyes have ever seen last week in LA.  The red zone offense is disgusting, their killer instinct is nonexistent, and their coach is a laughing stock. 

BUT, they’re winning this game.

The Pats are coming in on a short week after burying the Cardinals Monday night.  In that game, Kyler Murray tore up his knee on play #3, and the New England defense smothered Colt McCoy. 

Also in that game, the Pats lost WR DeVante Parker to a concussion, stud RB Rhamondre Stevenson to an ankle and already have Damien Harris banged up.  For a team who had very little skill players as it was, they’re scraping the barrel this weekend.

I’m taking the Raiders based solely on the “dudes” on both sides.  WR Hunter Renfrow and TE Darren Waller are expected back this week, RB Josh Jacobs leads the league in rushing, and somehow Vegas still has the playoffs in their sights. 

If Josh McDaniels was going to do anything special at all, it could be against his old coaching colleagues.  Give me the Raiders in a tight one.

 

3. Miami Dolphins AT Buffalo Bills (-7 -115) – SATURDAY – 8:15 PM – NFL NET

Everywhere you look this week, someone is talking about the weather Saturday night in Buffalo.

As of right now, the forecast is calling for a foot of snow and temps around 25.  There is no chance Miami wants to play in this slop. 

The Bills are well overdue for a comfy win after weeks of letting teams hang around and this looks like the perfect spot.  Couple all of that with the revenge factor Buffalo will have coming in after a heartbreaking loss in Week 3 to these Dolphins. 

There’s been reports that the Phins have prepped for the weather by practicing indoors with the AC pumping to a balmy 55 degrees.  Tua was even quoted as saying he wasn’t worried because “it snows in Alabama too”.  Come on man.

I don’t normally take division favorites of 7 or more points but this feels like a 28-13 game for me Saturday night.

 

2. Indianapolis Colts (+3.5 -110) AT Minnesota Vikings – SATURDAY – 1 PM – NFL NET

We’re back against the Vikings in the Top 5.

Listen, I don’t mean to be cruel but this team is showing its true colors right before our very eyes of late.  Let’s take a look at some defensive team rankings.

Since Week 10, Minnesota ranks dead LAST in:

• Total Points Allowed
• Total Yards Allowed
• Passing Yards Allowed
• Yards Per Play Allowed

That is not what you want to see if you’re a Vikings fan clinging to the defensive mechanism of saying, “Well, we’re 10-3 though!”  The writing is on the wall.

Indy meanwhile, stinks.  This I know. 

However, they are coming into this game off a bye week after giving up 50 to the Cowboys in Week 13.  They have to foaming at the mouth to put new tape on the VHS.

I’m backing the Colts this week simply because of the matchup.  The Vikings may very well win this game but it won’t be by more than 3 points as they are addicted to winning one score games.

 

1. Dallas Cowboys AT Jacksonville Jaguars (+4 -115) – 1 PM – FOX

My God do I love Jacksonville this week.

Here’s a team that was completely left for dead after losing five straight one-score games earlier this season.  Since then, they’ve won 3 of their last 5 and find themselves only two games back of the Titans in the AFC South.  A Titans team they just manhandled in their building last week. 

Over the past 5 weeks, QB Trevor Lawrence has been one of the league’s best quarterbacks ranking top 5 in all notable categories over that time.  He and coach Doug Pederson appear to be back on the same track and utilizing Lawrence’s athleticism to their benefit.

I have so much to say about the Cowboys in this spot. 

They were the talk of the league entering last week.  You couldn’t flip through the channels without landing on someone exclaiming the Cowboys are winning the Super Bowl.  Then they needed a 95+ yard drive to beat the lowly Texans at home as a 17-point favorite.  How is that possible?

I’d say they were looking ahead but THIS is the game for that excuse.  The 12-1 Eagles loom large on Christmas Eve next week in Jerry’s World.  I see them being at the very least sleepy come 1 PM in northern Florida Sunday afternoon. 

Dallas also has a ton of key injuries.  As of this moment, TE Jake Ferguson is out with a concussion and DE Dorance Armstrong (2nd on the team in sacks) is doubtful to play.  They also lost starting offensive tackle Terence Steele for the season last week and haven’t activated Tyron Smith.  My point is, they have a lot of question marks entering this game personnel wise.

I do believe the NFL wants next week’s Eagles/Cowboys game to have everything on the line so if you’re into conspiracies than I hear that argument.  The ‘Boys may very well win to keep the division in their sights, but not by more than 3.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile