NFL Week 16 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Happy Holidays to you and yours as we here at Bet Karma hope you all have a wonderful weekend with family and friends!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

Become a member of Bet Karma Premium today!  Our Premium services are incredible and a true must have for any daily gambler.  From Props to Futures to Daily Fantasy, we'll guide you through everything you need start to finish.  Get started for under $1 a day right now!

 

Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 15 Record: 3-1-1 / Overall: 35-35-5 (46.7%)

What a slate of pro football we had in Week 15!

Because we ignore Thursday night football around here, we start with the greatest comeback in NFL history.  The Colts (+3.5) were up 33-0 at halftime and I had already spent my winnings.  Somehow, someway…Minnesota came storming back to win by 3 in overtime.  If that Colts bet would have lost, I’d have retired on the spot as there would be no greater “beat” ever.  Survival.

In the night game Saturday, the Bills (-7) once again played with their food all game long.  They’re so frustrating yet incredibly entertaining.  When Devin Singletary voluntarily took a knee at the one (because it screwed a team ONCE a decade ago *don’t fact check me) I screamed violently as the push was ripped from our hands.

For our first game Sunday, our beloved Jaguars (+4) came all the way back down 17 to beat the Cowboys outright.  Dallas may very well be frauds after the past two weeks and the Jags are going to the playoffs.  Write it down.

In the afternoon slate, we had two miracles bestowed on us.  First was a lucky push when the Titans (+3) did nothing all game but scratched and clawed their way to a 3-point loss in LA.  Losers of four straight games and with Tannehill out for the year, they could be in big time trouble in the AFC South.

Then came the finish we will all never forget in the Sin City.  On the last play of regulation, tied 24-24, RB Rhamondre Stevenson inexplicitly pitched the ball back to WR Jakobi Meyers.  His brain then went numb causing him to toss it 20 yards behind him into the waiting arms of Raiders (-1.5) DE Chandler Jones.  Jones proceeded to stiff arm QB Mac Jones into the center of the Earth and rumble for a game winning TD as time expired.  Never in my life have I ever seen something so stupid AND be on the right side of it.

We’ve found ourselves back to dead even on the season through 75 games.  35-35-5 is such a ridiculous record for year one that you just have to laugh.  With three weeks left in the regular season, I’m seeing the board better than ever.  Get on the train!

 

Week 16

5. Los Angeles Chargers AT Indianapolis Colts (+4.5 -115) – MONDAY – 8:15 PM – ESPN

I know what you’re thinking… the Colts, AGAIN?!

It’s a gross bet but it needs to be placed.  The Colts are coming off a historic choke job.  The Chargers are on fire and storming towards a playoff berth.  But you have to remember, Vegas is not in the business of losing money.  This is a spot on a short, but greater than 3 line that we have to be on.

Indy has benched the washed up beyond belief Matt Ryan for former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles.  We are a far cry from Foles holding up the Lombardi almost five years ago but he simply can’t be worse than Ryan has been. 

The Chargers are a good team.  Some would actually say very good and dangerous in any playoff matchup because of the electricity they possess in QB Justin Herbert.  However, they are a perennially disappointing favored team.  The public will be all over LA in this primetime matchup.  They may win but it’s going to be by less than 4.

 

4. Detroit Lions AT Carolina Panthers (+3 -120) – SATURDAY – 1 PM – FOX

How could I possibly bet against the darling Lions?

It doesn’t bring me joy to place this bet because I’ve enjoyed every second of their ascent, but the spot is way too good to pass up on.  Carolina was awful last week in a traditional “come down” game vs. the Steelers.  They were gobbled up by a superior defense and got brought back down to Earth after two straight wins.

However, the Panthers also play in a historically bad division and have a real shot at playing a home playoff game in January.  They are going to be desperate for a win this weekend.

The Lions meanwhile are as hot as can be winning six of their past seven games.  The public has finally caught on and are pounding the road favorites yet the line hasn’t moved at all.  What comes up, must come down and Detroit is simply not good enough to win yet another road game against a decent defense.

I see this game being a brutal watch with Carolina being in it for the full 60 minutes, possibly pulling out an outright victory at home.

 

3. Cincinnati Bengals AT New England Patriots (+3.5 -120) – SATURDAY – 1 PM – CBS

Oh my is the Top 5 gross in Week 16.

The Patriots had to sit there and stew as every TV station ran back “The Play” from Las Vegas last week.  Mac Jones is being questioned left and right.  Hell, there are even fans that want Bill Belichick fired.  There hasn’t been this much turmoil in New England since Goodell suspended Brady for air pressure!

The Bengals have only won six in a row and are 11-1 against the spread in their last 12.  So how is this line not AT LEAST a touchdown?  Once again, the books are begging us to load up on Cincy and the public numbers are supporting that request.  However, the sharp money is on the other side with me.

New England simply has no choice but to win this game, at home, to save their season.  We’ll know early what kind of motivation they possess.  WR DaVante Parker should return for this one as well as RB Damien Harris. 

On the other side, the Bengals’ injuries are starting to ramp up, especially on the defensive line.  DE Sam Hubbard is out for another few weeks, TE Hayden Hurst won’t suit up, and STUD D End Trey Hendrickson broke his wrist but will play with a cast. 

I’m willing to back the home team and see exactly what their made up with everything on the line.

 

2. Las Vegas Raiders AT Pittsburgh Steelers (-2 -110) – SATURDAY – 8:15 PM – NFL NET

How in the world did the NFL not flex themselves out of this snooze fest Saturday night?

The Raiders and their fans have to still be in shock after stealing that win last week vs New England.  For a team with so many L’s in the standings, they have had a WILD season.  So many close losses due to situational football and horrible play calling with a lead, yet somehow, they aren’t dead yet.  The Steelers are in an identical boat sitting at 6-8, two games back of a wild card berth. 

This is essentially a “loser leaves town” game.

Pittsburgh’s defense showed their teeth last week in Carolina and I think that effort will be here to stay for the rest of the season.  This is a proud franchise with a great head coach who will also be getting their QB Kenny Pickett back for this stretch run. 

I’m not a huge off the field motivation guy normally, but the team will certainly honor recently deceased legend Franco Harris who 50 years ago today performed the “Immaculate Reception” against you guessed it, the Raiders.

You can’t make this stuff up.

This will be another rough watch but I see the Steelers D flexing on the black and silver to the tune of a 21-10 home victory.

 

1. Green Bay Packers (+3.5 -110) AT Miami Dolphins – SUNDAY – 1 PM – FOX

Sometimes I feel like I’m the only person I know who sees the Dolphins for what they are.

They’re the quintessential “One Year Away” team, for me.

Finally returning home after a BRUTAL road trip where they dropped three straight, Miami is looking to get back in the win column vs what may very well be a dangerous Packers team. 

Green Bay is getting healthier by the week especially in their skill group.  WR Romeo Doubs returned Monday night and looked really good as a compliment to fellow rookie Christian Watson.  Rodgers is getting healthier as well and had some vintage throws in their past two wins.  RB Aaron Jones remains one of my absolute favorite players to watch.  Any time he’s on the field, he’s the best player on that field. 

Miami showed a lot of fight last weekend in Buffalo battling back numerous times, yet when they had a chance to win the game late, Tua couldn’t get it done.  Their late drive to win stalled leading to Josh Allen doing Josh Allen things as snowballs rained down in a raucous Highmark Stadium.

That had to be a very quiet and desolate plane ride home for Miami.

I haven’t been a believer in this team’s Super Bowl aspirations even when they were 8-3.  Yes, they are one of the most talented teams in the whole league but again, they’re simply one year away to me.

Take the Pack and the 3.5 points.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile