CFB Bowl Week 12/31 - 1/2 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Bowl Season Record: 4-4 / Overall: 35-38-1 (47.3%)

Man, the bowls are tough to handicap…

We start with Florida St (-9.5) who played a wild one Thursday night with Oklahoma.  The redzone offense early told the story for me as FSU struggled to get touchdowns while QB Dillon Gabriel played a fantastic game for the Sooners.  Florida St won on a late field goal but were never really in position to cover our line.

Maryland took down NC State (-1) in a total snooze fest early Friday afternoon.  State didn’t end up playing freshman QB MJ Morris to my dismay and it cost them.  QB Ben Finley, his 45% completion rate, and the Wolfpack offense were anemic at best.  What was especially painful was how the Terps were begging them to steal this game all day long. 

We finally had one go right for the good guys in the Barstool Arizona Bowl as Ohio (-1.5) came back to win a thriller in Tuscan.  Down by 3 with two minutes to go, the Bobcats got themselves down the field to tie the game.  In overtime, TE Tyler Foster made a gorgeous catch in the back of the endzone for the game winner.  That was Foster’s first catch of the game and likely the biggest catch of his life.

This is it ladies and gentlemen!  The final Top 5 before the National Championship Game on January 9th.  I appreciate everyone who read the articles and battled with me all season.  Let’s end on a high note!

 

Bowl Season: Dec. 31st – Jan. 2nd

5. ReliaQuest Bowl - #22 Mississippi St VS. Illinois (UNDER 46 -110) – Monday Jan. 2nd – 12 PM

I want to start with a following statement.  Mike Leach is a legend and the sports world is going to sorely miss him.  It can be argued that Leach is the single most influential figure in college football history.  His brain brought on the famous “Air Raid” offense and through stops at Texas Tech, Washington St and finally Mississippi St; he provided more innovation than maybe any offensive mind ever.

With all that said, this game is extremely hard to pick.

There is a giant part of me that wants to bet the Bulldogs.  A few players who had previously opted out are now going to play in the game to honor their coach.  It is just truly impossible to place myself in that locker room and know how they feel regarding this bowl game.

On the other side, Illinois will be without their best offensive weapon by far, RB Chase Brown.  He’s opted out along with a few other key players.  Their season started with so much promise but they sputtered toward the end and quite frankly wasted what could have been an all-time defense.

The Illini have been under machines all year as it is so 46 seems incredibly high for a game with so much in question.

 

4. Rose Bowl - #11 Penn St VS. #8 Utah (OVER 52.5 -110) – Monday Jan. 2nd – 5 PM

I came into this article loving the Nittany Lions outright.  I still do but that won’t be my pick in the Top 5.

There has been a lot of chatter around Happy Valley that head coach James Franklin is feeling some heat from alumni.  Not so much where he’s he could be on the unemployment line but there is no doubt in my mind Penn St wants to win the Rose Bowl.

Utah has had a wild year.  They are PAC 12 champions and have beaten USC twice, yet also have a loss to Florida on their schedule.  But make no mistake about it, they’ve earned this spot and are #8 in the country for a reason.  The Utes are a veteran team who have been there before.  The moment will certainly not be too big and their offense is going to score.

This is QB Sean Clifford last game in the blue and white.  He absolutely wants to go out as a winner.  Penn St on the whole is a very good team.  In fact, they likely will have the most to gain when the playoffs jump from 4 to 12 teams.  Their only losses are to Ohio St and Michigan who are playing for a chance at the title. 

Utah’s defense never travels well and has given up a ton of points this season.  Penn St will be without star cornerback Joey Porter Jr which is going to be a tough spot to fill.  Also, the Rose Bowl has been pure electricity in recent years with some of the greatest games you’ll ever see.  I see this one being another one in the long line.  Give me the over.

 

3. Cotton Bowl - #16 Tulane VS. #10 USC (OVER 63 -110) – Monday Jan. 2nd – 1 PM

Points!  Points!  Points!

I love this bet, and if I didn’t want to finish this article with the Playoff games this would likely be my #1 pick.

We know USC by now.  Incredible offensively.  Historically bad defensively.  There are no secrets to this Lincoln Reilly led team.  Maybe one day he’ll recruit a defensive stud but that won’t be evident in this game.

On the other sideline, I’m not sure there is a team motivated to play more than Tulane will be.  Maybe Kansas St against Bama, but I avoided that game altogether. 

The Green Wave have had a tremendous 2022.  11-2, a win against Big 12 champ Kansas St, and an AAC Title in their trophy case; yet they’re still only ranked 16th and are feeling the national disrespect for sure.  They are absolutely going to have an offensive gameplan that can put points up on this swiss cheese Trojan defense.  Look for RB Tyjae Spears to be running free all day long.

Tulane is a sound defensive team but USC has shown they can score big on anyone.  Obviously keep an eye out for if Heisman winner QB Caleb Williams sits out.  Word is he is working through a hamstring injury but wants to play.  Get this over bet in as soon as possible because the second he is labeled “active” this over will jump a few points.

 

College Football Playoff

Crazy stat alert! – In the 16 semifinal games since the CFP has been announced, only three have been decided by one score.  NINE of them have been decided by 20+.  Favorites in the last 5 years are 7-3 ATS and 9-1 SU

 

2. Fiesta Bowl - #3 TCU VS. #2 Michigan (-7.5 -110) – Saturday Dec. 31st – 4 PM

After dozens of bowl games, opt-outs, head coaching changes, and mayo baths, we have finally reached the Playoffs.

We start in the Fiesta Bowl with the undefeated Big 10 champion Michigan Wolverines vs. the 12-1 TCU Horned Frogs.

I tried very hard to figure out an angle where TCU can not only cover this game, but win.  It’s just not there for me…  I love QB Max Duggan.  I love coach Sonny Dykes.  I love the season they had with five wins in one score games and countless 2nd half comebacks.  I just feel the glass slipper is finally going to fall off, and BIG.

Michigan is just the much better team and carries greater big game experience into this semifinal.  TCU thrives off big plays.  Guess how many TDs Michigan’s defense has given up outside the red zone?  FOUR.  That’s insane.  They simply don’t let you get behind them and at worst their a fantastic “bend but don’t break” unit.

To go into Columbus and embarrass Ohio St was a true eye opener for me.  The Wolverines appear to be more steady than in year’s past and are craving that title game.  QB J.J. McCarthy has gotten better each and every week and although they’ll miss future Pro RB Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards is no slouch and they’ll still be able to grind it out on the ground.  Likely with ease.

TCU’s defense is young and energetic, but they don’t possess the “Dudes” if you will.  I see big gashes by the Michigan offense and Duggan’s dream season falls short as Michigan pulls away late by two scores.

 

1. Peach Bowl - #4 Ohio St VS #1 Georgia (-6 -110) – Saturday Dec. 31st – 8 PM

What a matchup we have in Atlanta on New Year’s Eve.

The defending champion Georgia Bulldogs take on the 11-1 Ohio St Buckeyes.  This was the betting odds favorite to be the title game before the season started but we get it one week early.  There are elite athletes who will be playing on Sundays all over the field in this game and I can’t wait until kickoff.

If I’m so excited for the game, why am I taking the touchdown favorite?

First, let me point back up to the stat I provided above.  The semis are blow out city and there’s a reason for that.  When you have a team like Georgia who are so loaded, have all the experience, employ a coach who has gotten better each year, and have a championship pedigree; it becomes impossible to pick against them.

People love to say last year’s Bulldogs team was better than this one and it may have been, but that shouldn’t devoid your attention from just how good this team is too.  They certainly took some games off earlier this season and it almost cost them.  But there is no team in the country I trust more to play up to the moment than Georgia.

In terms of X’s and O’s, Georgia’s massive strength is the interior of their defensive line.  Ohio St has two pros at right and left tackle but the inside of their offensive line has struggled mightily.  QB CJ Stroud is a fantastic quarterback but he’s all about timing and struggles under “in face” pressure.  The Bulldogs don’t normally blitz and if they can get home with their front four this could get ugly for the Buckeyes.

Speaking of blitzing, Ohio St. blitzed J.J. McCarthy from Michigan all day and he carved them up with down field throws.  QB Stetson Bennett has round himself into a perfect college QB and if they try and do the same thing, he will get the ball out to their all-world tight ends with ease.  Georgia is also as healthy as they’ve been this season at wide receiver and these guys will be foaming at the mouth to make big plays. 

Buckeye WR Marvin Harrison Jr is an amazing wide out.  He has made more highlight reel, in traffic catches than any other player this season.  However, I think Ohio St is going to really miss their other star WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba who was unable to get up for this game.  Last year, a guy like Alabama’s WR Jameson Williams produced big problems for the Georgia defense.  Their susceptible to speed.  Ohio St is unfortunately missing their best kryptonite in that facet.

I do think this will be a highly competitive game, especially in the first half.  But I’m going to lay the points with the champs as they march forward to defend their crown on the 9th.

 

Again, I want to thank you all for reading this season and I’ll be back next week with my pick for the Championship Game.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile