NFL Week 17 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Happy New Year's to our Bet Karma family!  2023 is our year.

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 16 Record: 3-2 / Overall: 38-37-5 (47.5%)

We’ve done it.  We’ve creeped our way over .500 wins over losses.  It’s full steam ahead towards the playoffs with only two weeks remaining in the regular season.  Sad.

We start our recap in Charlotte where the Panthers (+3) ran all over the Lions with an astounding 320 yards on the ground.  Carolina has a huge matchup this weekend and after firing their coach mid-season, they may actually host a playoff game.

Up north in Foxboro, it was pain personified as the Patriots (+3.5) came all the way back down 22 early.  Losing by 10 in the 4th quarter, New England scored a TD but the wind grabbed Nick Folk’s extra point to keep the spread at 4.  The Patriots got back inside the five-yard line with a chance to win the game late but RB Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled battling for extra yards and broke our heart losing the bet by a half point.

We got a better taste in our mouth in the night game on Christmas Eve as the Steelers (-2) came through with a beauty of a game winning drive in an otherwise atrocious football game.

On Christmas Day we opened our gifts, won $8 on our scratch offs, and watched as Tua threw two brutal late game interceptions.  The Packers (+3.5) took full advantage and kept their playoff hopes alive with a six-point win in Miami.

Monday night was bad people.  No way to sugar coat betting Nick Foles in 2022.  The late money came in hard on the Chargers but it was too late for us as the Colts (+4.5) are a complete and utter dead dog.

 

Week 17

5. Los Angeles Rams AT Los Angeles Chargers (UNDER 42 -110) – 4:25 PM – CBS

We start with a truly gross one.

The Rams put up 51 last week against the deader than dead Denver Broncos on Christmas Day.  QB Baker Mayfield has been kind of amazing with what was expected of him when he joined LA a few weeks ago.  But we can’t forget, this team is a shell of the one who hoisted the Lombardi last February. 

The Chargers have locked up a well-earned spot in the AFC playoffs.  There is some movement that can be had in terms of seeding but I don’t see them playing this game like it’s the be all, end all.  One thing is for sure, their defense has turned a corner.  They are playing at a high level and welcome back their multi-time Pro Bowl defensive end Joey Bosa. 

Look for this game to be a tough watch with very little big play potential.  I love the under.

 

4. Miami Dolphins (+2.5 -110) AT New England Patriots – 1 PM – CBS

The Patriots are hanging by a thread right now.

Yet even coming off two absolute heartbreaking losses, they do control a lot of their fate.  If they win out, they’ll likely make the playoffs.  It sure doesn’t feel like this team is playoff worthy however. 

QB Mac Jones has had moments of “he’s the guy” coupled with just as many “this guy may stink”.  With that said, the Pats are so limited with weapons and offensive coaching that I feel he may deserve a pass.  The fact that they entered a season with Matt Patricia calling the offense is lunacy.  I’d be picketing outside of Gillette if I was a season ticket holder.  Of course, the 6 Super Bowls help, but I digress.

Miami is also sliding losers of four straight.  Not only that but franchise QB Tua Tagovailoa unfortunately suffered his second concussion of the season.  Certainly worried for his future but hoping for the best. 

In comes backup Teddy Bridgewater who is the best QB against the spread in the last 20 years.  No, that’s not a typo.  All this guy does is wear two gloves and cover spreads. 

New England is in the bottom three offensively in a ton of major categories since Week 7.

- Total Yards – 29th

- Touchdowns – 31st

- 3rd Down Conversions – 29th

- RedZone TD & - 32nd

Give me the Dolphins who have infinitely more weapons and much better offensive coaching getting 2.5 points on the road.

 

3. Minnesota Vikings AT Green Bay Packers (-3 -110) – 4:25 PM – FOX

I can’t stop, won’t stop betting against Minnesota.  It’s a sickness at this point.

This one is different though. 

The public is finally doing what I refuse to and backing the 12-3 Vikings at a rather alarming clip.  Listen, we know this is going to be a one score game, that’s all Minny plays in this season.  However, this time, they’re playing a team who NEEDS to win and is at home. 

The Packers are in the midst of a rather incredible turnaround.  Left for dead at 4-8, they have won three straight and find their playoff percentage rise with each final score around the league.  They’ll still need help from the Giants and Commanders but those two teams can’t be trusted at all.  Green Bay is going to come out highly motivated.

The injury to electric rookie WR Christian Watson is concerning.  Looks like he is going to test it out in warmups and try to play with very little practice time.  It would be great to have him because the Vikings secondary is atrocious of late.  I still think they’ll win the game if he doesn’t go but the line may waver so keep an eye out.

 

2. Buffalo Bills (-1 -110) AT Cincinnati Bengals – Monday – 8:15 PM – ESPN

How could I possibly be betting against the Bengals again!? 

They’ve covered what feels like 500 in a row at this point but they weren’t playing Josh Allen in those games.  Not only are they playing the Bills loaded offense, they are putting their front 7 together with duct tape right now.  I finally think their injury woes defensively will catch up to them in this matchup.

The Bills are a great team.  Not sure this can be debated.  But man oh man do they love to “play with their food” against lesser opponents.  I’m more comfortable betting them against a great team at this point than covering a TD line against a bad one.  And make no mistake about it, the Bengals are a great team.

QB Joe Burrow is absolutely rolling and Cincy has rattled off 7 wins in a row.  The defending AFC champs are in position to have a shot at the bye with a win and the home fans will be heard all over the state of Ohio Monday night. 

When I really dug into the research though, the sharps are all over Buffalo and I get why.  I think a lot of the public looks at the Bengals ATS record and the fact that they’re at home and are blindly betting Cincinnati.  We have to be contrarian in this spot and at least we are backing a great team in return.

Let’s be real though, I just really wanted a piece of this beauty of a matchup on Monday Night Football in front of the world.

 

1. New York Jets (-2 -110) AT Seattle Seahawks – 4:05 PM – FOX

Mike White is BACK!

Certainly not a sentence I ever thought I would type in 2022, but it’s 2023 now, and White is infinitely better than Zach Wilson.  This game has a simple focus for me.  Defense travels and say what you want about the Jets over the past month, they have a great defense. 

Geno Smith’s petals have fallen off the rose.  He still may win the Comeback Player of the Year but I don’t believe his season will end up in the playoffs.  The Hawks were one of my favorite teams early in the season but their youth and lack of a defensive prowess has finally caught up to them.

I believe this line should be -4 but the public has been backing the Seahawks, possibly giving too much respect to the Lumen Field atmosphere.

This is a good New York roster that has just been accompanied by awful Quarterback play.  I think the Jets save their season (for now) and find a way to win this game on the road behind their defense and QB who can actually make plays through the air. 

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile