NFL Week 18 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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I want to start today by talking about Bills safety Damar Hamlin.

What we all witnessed Monday night was an unprecedented moment.  Not just for the league but for society.  I know, for me, it rocked me as a fan and as a person.  I find myself completely in awe of the first responders who saved Hamlin’s life in real time, the doctors at the University of Cincinnati who ensured he would continue on, and the nation as a whole who seemed to come together in prayer for this young man to be saved above all else.  Today, just five nights after incurring cardiac arrest, he physically spoke with his brothers on the Bills.  I felt an overwhelming sense of gratitude and excitement for his future.  Get well Damar, “you won at life”.

 

Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 17 Record: 3-1 / Overall: 41-38-5 (48.8%)

We have made it to the finish line boys and girls.

Week 18 is NOT for the faint of heart for any gambler and we will try to navigate any and all land mines while fishing out some winners.  The questions you need to ask yourself are plentiful:

• WHO’S PLAYING?
• Who needs to win?
• Who is worried about seeding?
• Who would love to play spoiler?
• Who is worried about draft position

Having the answers to these questions isn’t easy especially because coaches play everything so close to the vest.  You need to take chances in Week 18 which is exactly what we’re about to do in the Top 5.

We had a another winning slate in Week 17 and find ourselves +3 games wins over losses. 

Let’s finish strong. 

Spoiler – Some of these are going to be gross.

 

Week 18

Bonus Pick – Cowboys (-7 -110) AT Commanders

I’m going to throw in sixth pick with only four games conveying last week.

Rookie QB Sam Howell is starting his first game as a pro against a Cowboys team who by all accounts will be playing their starters throughout this game.  With the Eagles playing at the same time, the Cowboys still have a shot at the #1 overall seed in the NFC.  This is a giant rivalry but the Commanders have been completely beaten into submission over the past few weeks.  It’s so bad in Washington that their head coach is completely oblivious to playoff scenarios.  They even debuted a mascot at halftime of Week 17 and proceeded to score ZERO points in the 2nd half.  They’re a complete mess to say the least.  I trust the Cowboys to come out and bury Washington hoping the Giants show fight a couple hours north in Philly.

 

5. Kansas City Chiefs AT Las Vegas Raiders (+9 -110) – SATURDAY – 4:30 PM – ABC

This is strictly a “bet against Mahomes as a touchdown favorite” bet.

Listen, I love Patrick Mahomes and if you don’t, you’re probably not a very fun person.  However, the numbers I’m about to present to you are beyond staggering and not a small sample size.

Mahomes as a favorite of over three points is now 9-24 against the spread since November 2020 and 3-9 this season.  The Chiefs are also 1-4 ATS in their last five.  They simply don’t cover massive lines and the sportsbooks keep raking in the cash on the public overvaluing them. 

The Raiders may have had the wheels finally fall off this absurd season losing in overtime to the Niners last week.  QB Jarrett Stidham was other worldly but blew a lead and lost to San Fran just like pretty much everyone else does.  I think Stidham has one more performance in him.  Not a winning performance, let’s not get crazy… But he is going to cover 9 points.

 

4.Tampa Bay Buccaneers AT Atlanta Falcons (-4 -110) – SUNDAY – 1 PM - FOX

We go back to our Week 18 rules above and highlight “Who is playing?”

Well, as far as we know today, the Bucs may have packed it in for the regular season.  And rightfully so.  As uneven as Tampa has been this year, they are locked into the 4th spot and will host a playoff game.  They have older veterans and banged up guys along both lines.  They are going to either rest, or have a very quick hook for whomever needs it to ensure they’re prepared for next week.

The Falcons, who finally provided me my only win total loss of the season last week, are playing hard.  They are rolling their rookie QB out there to middling success and are running the football at will.  If the Bucs do sit or quickly yank some of their front 7, there is not much that will stop Atlanta from pounding away.

I just can’t see a scenario where coach Todd Bowles would keep Brady in this game more than a 3rd preseason matchup.  He’s entirely too valuable to any postseason success and will have some backups in front protecting him.  No thanks.  I’ll take Atlanta.

 

3. Los Angeles Rams (+6 -110) AT Seattle Seahawks – SUNDAY – 4:25 PM – FOX

I warned you it would be gross!

The Seahawks need a win and a Packers loss to make the playoffs.  It’s been a wild year for Seattle.  A team not one pundit had in this position in Week 18 behind a coach and QB that were left for dead in many eyes. 

Here’s the issue, this is a completely inflated line for a rivalry game where the Rams have absolutely nothing to lose.  Not only will they play loose as the day is long, they have a savvy coach, a QB who is fearless, and a true hatred for their opponent.  If you don’t think LA will be motivated to end Seattle’s season you’re nuts.

Cam Akers has reemerged and looks great and yes; I know the Rams got smoked last week but that just makes me like them more in this spot.  Also of note, the Seahawks have some question marks entering this matchup.  RB Kenneth Walker was sick all week and their likely going to be missing their top LB on defense.

The Hawks pounded a lifeless Jets team last week (my sole loss, sad) and this has directly affected the public’s opinion of this game.  The sharps and big tickets are all with us on LA.  I promise you do not want to be holding a Seahawks ticket when the Rams take a 3-point lead into the 4th quarter Sunday afternoon.

 

2. Detroit Lions (+5 -110) AT Green Bay Packers – SUNDAY – 8:20 PM – NBC

This is a risky pick because we won’t know what happens earlier in the day that directly affects this game. 

In fact, if you want to wait and see if the Seahawks win which will absolutely blow this line up to 6.5 or even 7, feel free to roll those dice.  But on the Top 5 we take the lines for what they are come publish time.

Make no mistake about it, I love the Lions whether they can win and make the playoffs or if they can send their hated rival’s home for the winter.  Detroit is simply not going to lay down whatever the scenario is.  They have had a very good season by most measures.  From Hard Knocks in the preseason to both win and loss streaks, these boys play their hearts out for head coach Dan Campbell.

It’s well documented, the Packers were 4-8 and now their 8-8 and somehow control their destiny for the 7 seed.  That’s so wild to even type out.  But let’s look at this win streak.

The Bears and Rams stink, the Dolphins had three inexplicable INTs by Tua late who was found out to be concussed in that game, and finally the massacre of those frauds up in Minnesota.  You can only beat who is on your schedule next and they deserve all the credit but Sunday night they will be playing a highly motivated Lions team.

I’ll take the 5 points which will show movement regardless of what happens earlier in the day.  I don’t believe that even with a Hawks loss this will drop down below that coveted 4-point line so feel free to wait if you’d like.

 

1. Tennessee Titans (+6.5 -110) AT Jacksonville Jaguars – SATURDAY – 8 :15 PM – ABC

This one pains me because I’ve loved Jacksonville all year and hold a ticket for them to win the division.

So, this is the quintessential “try and middle” bet for me personally.  Titans cover the 6.5 points but lose, I win both.  But even if I didn’t have this option, I still love the Titans.

There are two things I know entering this game.  The public LOVES the Jags and HATES the Titans and I get it!  Tennessee has been awful the last couple months and Jacksonville has reaped all the benefits.  This is easily the biggest game Jacksonville will host since the 2017 team who made a run to the AFC title game. 

But who is on that other sideline?  None other than Mike Vrabel and all he does is cover as an underdog when he’s getting more than three points.

Stat time!  The Titans under Vrabel are an astounding 21-9 ATS when getting over a field goal. 

Tennessee lost to the Jags by 100 a few weeks ago at home but they beat Jacksonville five straight before that.  Keep in mind as well, they rested their starters last week in a loss to Dallas so they’re coming into this game as the fresher squad. 

Sure, Josh Dobbs is the QB, but he looked serviceable last week and the Jags defense isn’t world beaters.  Let’s not forget what RB Derrick Henry has done to the Jags either.  In his last 7 games vs Jacksonville he has averaged 141.6 yards per game and has a whopping 13 TDs.  AND he’s coming off a full week of rest after sitting last Thursday.

I believe the Jaguars will feel the most pressure with all eyes on ABC Saturday night against a team who has been there, done that for the last several years.  Give me all those 6.5 points and Tennessee.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile