NFL Wildcard Weekend - Top 5 Game Bets

It’s Playoff Time on the Top 5!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 18 Record: 4-2/ Overall: 45-40-5 (52.9%)

We are finally here! 

Super Wildcard Weekend is some of the best few days of the sports year and although the betting lines project some blowout potential, there is plenty of action to be excited about.

The Top 5 is SCORCHING hot over the past six weeks as I’ve gone 20-8-1 (71.4%) over that time.  I’m seeing the board clearer than ever and feel very good about this tough slate ahead.

Week 18 had two awful picks followed by four beauties. 

We split Saturday’s two game slate starting with the Chiefs smashing our Raiders (+9) in Vegas.  KC embarrassed the black and silver all game long.  All sadness subsided quickly for me personally as the “middle the bet” dream came true.  The Titans (+6.5) covered but the Jags took a fumble back to the house to win the AFC South (and my division future). 

On Sunday, I threw out a bonus bet on the Cowboys (-7).  That was dumb.  Dallas is officially limping into their playoff matchup Monday night against the GOAT in Tampa.

Thankfully it was all winning, all the time otherwise.

The Falcons (-4) were able to take and keep the lead vs. the Bucs backups in the 2nd half.  The Rams (+6) battled the Hawks to overtime, almost pulling off the upset outright.  Finally, those delightful Lions (+5) came to play Sunday night and knocked their hated rival Packers out of the playoffs.

 

Wildcard Weekend

5. LA Chargers AT Jacksonville Jaguars (OVER 47.5 -110) - Saturday - 8:15 PM -NBC

We start with a very intriguing 4/5 matchup in northern Florida.

The Jags won five games in a row and took the division away from the Titans in Week 18.  They have essentially been playing playoff games since the first week of December and have answered the bell each time.

The Chargers quietly put together a solid, if not forgettable, 10-7 campaign.  They are the epitome of a Jekyll and Hyde football team and we’ve been quite profitable with the rule “Bet the Chargers as underdogs, fade them as favorites”.  I thought long and hard about taking the home dogs here but I’m going to go with the over instead.

The Jags defense has played great in spurts but it’s a façade to their overall game.  The run defense is solid but the secondary can and will be picked apart.  They ain’t playing Josh Dobbs this week.  Justin Herbert is one of the best arm talent QBs in the entire league and I expect him to make big plays.  Yes, even without WR Mike Williams who is out.

Quick aside, coach Brandon Staley can’t get out of his own way.  In a completely meaningless Week 18 game in Denver, he played his starters into the 4th quarter and Williams fractured his back.  Barring a run to the Super Bowl, his season is likely over.  What a dope Staley can be.

The Chargers secondary has played really well, but their run defense is nonexistent.  RB Travis Etienne should have gaping running holes at his disposal all night long.  The Jags beat LA by 100 back in Week 3, in their building.  Jacksonville is going to be able to score.

This could be one of the most exciting games of the weekend Saturday night.  Strap in.

 

4. Dallas Cowboys AT Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5 -105) – Monday – 8:15 PM – ABC

If you would have told me even a few weeks ago that I’d be backing the Bucs against anyone, I’d say you’re crazy.

They’ve had a truly, for lack of a better term, awful season.  However, Tampa has shown life offensively the past couple weeks and may have unlocked something with their skill guys.  Mike Evans shockingly put up three touchdowns against Carolina, Godwin looks healthy, and the run game… well the run game is still pretty bad.  But they may not need it to be great in this one.

The Cowboys are a complete anomaly.

They have one of the most talented rosters in the entire league and boast the 2nd most pro bowlers behind only the Eagles.  They can beat any team in football on any given Sunday.  Unfortunately for “America’s Team” they can lose to most of them too. 

Dallas’ secondary has been awful of late and it won’t get much better as injuries are mounting up.  QB Dak Prescott is obviously good but my goodness does this guy throw a lot of picks.  In fact, he’s thrown an INT in 7 straight games and averaged 1.25 INTs per start this season.  That isn’t going to win playoff football, especially on the road.

The Bucs have played in some of the most unwatchable football games these eyes have ever seen in 2022.  If it wasn’t for two miracle Brady comebacks during the year, they wouldn’t be playing anymore.  But they are, and HE is.  Tom Brady is undefeated vs the Cowboys lifetime.

Tampa’s D still has some dudes on it that fly around.  They get pressure with their front four and come into this game top 10 in Sacks, Passing yds allowed, and yds per attempt.  When the two hoss defensive tackle Akeem Hicks and Vita Vea play, they are 6-1 and allowing 16 points per game.  When they don’t, they give up 25.  Those big boys will be in uniform Monday night.

The Cowboys and their much-maligned head coach Mike McCarthy have ALL the pressure on them and I get the greatest ever AND 2.5 points on the other sideline?  I’ll take that.

 

3. Miami Dolphins AT Buffalo Bills (-13.5 -115) – Sunday – 1 PM – CBS

I know what you’re thinking, an almost two TD line in a playoff game and I’m on the favorite?

I agree, it seems square as the day is long and normally, I’d be salivating over an underdog this big.  But I just couldn’t get myself to back Skylar Thompson IN Buffalo with all that talent wearing blue and white and emotion running through that stadium.

The Bills have been through it to say the least.  It’s been all good news all the time with Damar Hamlin and I fully expect him to appear on the big screen Sunday afternoon to hype up the faithful.  Not only is Buffalo a league favorite, they may have some destiny flowing behind their sails.

The Bills come into the playoffs winners of 7 straight and have beaten Miami in 8 of the last 9 matchups.  That lone loss came earlier this year and Buffalo hasn’t forgotten about that.  QB Josh Allen has been outstanding in the playoffs during his young career.  In fact, he has the best total yards per game average (348.2 yds), TD:INT ratio (14-1), and passer rating (106.6) in postseason history!  Miami’s defense has played well this season but they have no answer for #17.

In the new playoff format, 7 seeds have never won and favorites of 10 or more are 5-1 against the spread.  One more note on the QBs; first time playoff QBs are 14-35 ATS vs veteran playoff QBs.  That’s alarming.

The Dolphins injuries have been well documented and they will have numerous starters watching this game in sweats.  If Tua was playing, I had this game pegged at +10.  I think Thompson’s entry pushes that over two touchdowns.

There’s too much logic and numbers backing me up to go the other way.  Give me the Bills and lay the 13.5 points.

 

2. Seattle Seahawks (+10 -120) AT San Francisco 49ers – Saturday – 4:35 PM – FOX

Oh baby do we have a gross one coming up in Santa Clara.

The forecast for Saturday calls for thunderstorms, 25 mph winds, and almost an inch of rain.  You couldn’t pay me to be in that stadium.  Who does this help though?

I could hear arguments for both teams but I’ll go with the dog getting 10 points.

Seattle has come back down to Earth after a tremendous first half of the year.  The shine has worn off QB Geno Smith and the youth has shown over the past month+.  This has been arguably coach Pete Carroll’s most impressive season at the helm as many pundits had the Seahawks projected near the bottom of the league.  They’re certainly flawed but this is a prideful franchise and the Niners are a team they know very well.

San Fran has been a juggernaut all season going 13-4 and have won 10 games in a row.  Five of those games have been managed by the arm of rookie QB Brock Purdy.  “Mr. Irrelevant” has been fantastic coming in as the third string QB orchestrating coach Kyle Shanahan’s system.  Shanahan is a wizard and he has a multitude of weapons to disperse.  The Niners are healthy, supremely talented, and geared up for a long playoff run.

But let me take you back to that forecast.  Running the rock will be paramount in that weather and both teams have proven they can.  The Hawks are 6-1 when stud rookie RB Kenneth Walker gets 15 or more carries and I fully expect him to get that.  Passing will be tough but Geno completed the season tops in the league in competition percentage (69.8%).  He continues to take what is given to him and if he doesn’t make mistakes, Seattle will move the ball with some success.

They always say beating a team three times in one season is extremely difficult but I’m not sure I’m a believer in that.  What I do believe in is the fact that rookie QBs like Purdy have lost five straight playoff games and are 1-8 in their last 9 opportunities. 

I see San Fran taking what’s in front of them, grinding this thing down and winning the game.  But not by 10 points.

 

1. Baltimore Ravens (+9 -115) AT Cincinnati Bengals - Sunday - 8:15 PM – NBC

I can’t believe I’m betting against the Bengals AGAIN! 

The Ravens have been clouded with drama for months over the health of former MVP QB Lamar Jackson.  He isn’t playing.  But I think if you asked coach John Harbaugh, he always knew he wasn’t going to play.  Baltimore is 3-3 without Lamar and made the playoffs yet again.  Harbaugh is the king of the Wildcard round with a 5-0 straight up record AND ATS entering this matchup.

Backup QB Tyler Huntley has been labeled a game-time decision as of this moment but I fully expect him to play.  He has been stretched out in practice this week and they’re going to need him.  Keep an eye on this though.

The Bengals have been tremendous and I hold a very nice ticket on them to win it all, but they aren’t without their issues either.  Left tackle La’el Collins tore up his knee and they lost stud guard Alex Cappa last week to an ankle injury.  For a team who historically can’t protect the QB, this is going to be extremely hard to overcome.

Let’s talk about the Ravens defense a little bit.

Since they traded for LB Roquan Smith during Week 9, they have been incredible.  Baltimore has allowed 132 points since that time, good for 2nd in the league only behind the Niners.  Smith’s entry in the middle has slid LB Patrick Queen to the outside where he’s thrived and the rush defense went from 20th to 3rd in the league.  Since Week 9 they lead the league in total TD’s allowed (11), 3rd in yards allowed (288.8), and 3rd in big plays (40).

My point is, they’re primed and ready to eat defensively.

The Bengals will go as far as star QB Joe Burrow takes them and that’s the way they like it.  They haven’t run the ball well at all this season and certainly will be pushing uphill against a run D like the Ravens have.  “Joe Cool” will find his weapons and they should win this game but I believe 9 points is disrespectful.

I’ll let all the public squares pounce while I sit back and bet a tried-and-true franchise like the Ravens in a low scoring grind of a playoff game.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile