NFL Divisional Weekend - Top 5 Game Bets

It’s Divisional Weekend on the Top 5!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Playoff Record: 2-3/ Overall: 47-43-5 (52.2%)

This is by far my favorite weekend of the football season. 

Every game has great and/or hot teams going head-to-head for the right to play in for a conference title.  Order those wings, crack open a beer, and let’s handicap these beauties.

Quick recap of the Wildcard round first.

Finally, after almost 2 months of winning weeks, I came up short going 2-3 on the weekend.

The Seahawks (+10) was the quintessential overthinker bet.  Sure, they had the lead at halftime but sometimes you just have to discard the rhetoric and bet the best team.  The Niners proved the Hawks didn’t belong on the same field with them in that 2nd half en route to comfy win.

In the night game, we witnessed one of the greatest collapses in sports history.  How Brandon Staley has a job today is beyond me.  However, I appreciate his ineptitude because it led to us cashing the Over 47.5 EASY by the end of the 3rd quarter.

On Sunday, I was counting our money once the Bills (-13.5) got up 17-0 immediately.  But, yet again, Buffalo “played with their food” all game long and let Skyler Thompson cover the line with ease and almost win the game!  But remember, the Dolphins got every single break in that game from turnover TDs to ref calls and beyond.  More on the Bills later… 

In the night game, the Ravens (+9) played every bit like I projected and arguably should have won the game.  Cincy truly has all the good luck charms stuffed inside their shoulder pads and took a 98 yd fumble return to the house, proving to be the difference.  Off to Buffalo in what will be the game of the weekend Sunday afternoon.

Monday night…

Listen, I blew it.  All year long I told anyone within a stone’s throw that the Bucs (+2.5) stunk. 

They stink! 

As soon as Brady threw that INT in the back of the endzone down 6-0 I knew we were cooked.  I let my GOAT blinders take over on that pick.  My bad.

Only SEVEN games remaining in the NFL season people!  Cherish them.

 

Divisional Playoffs

5. New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles (UNDER 48 -110) – Saturday – 8:15 PM – FOX

This was easily the hardest game to handicap this weekend as it possesses the most unknowns.

Is Jalen Hurts healthy?  Are the Eagles going to be rusty after a bye and a shaky last few weeks of the regular season?  Is Daniel Jones only a great QB against the Minnesota Vikings?  IS IT HARD TO BEAT A TEAM THREE TIMES???

I capped that last one because every talking head you’ll hear has exhausted that asinine question to which I give little to no stake in.  But the other questions are vital.

I’m going under in this game for a few reasons.

First of all, these teams know every little nook and cranny about one another.  This will be their third matchup in the last 6 weeks. 

The first one was an Eagles beatdown of the Giants in New York.  That game can almost be thrown out because the G-Men were missing key components of their defense and appear to be a completely different team on that side.  The 2nd game took place in Week 18 with the Giants playing me and you at the skill spots and the Eagles ran a preseason Week 3 vanilla offense to make sure they got the one seed.  I could argue both of these games tell us nothing about this one.

Health is the most important factor come playoff time.  The Giants are healthier than ever and the Eagles needed that bye week to get right.  As of right now, the only starter missing this game will be Philly’s nickel corner Avonte Maddox.  He’s a big loss but maybe not against this weaponry or lack thereof.

Giants QB Daniel Jones has been fantastic of late and had his best game as a pro last week in Minnesota.  He has completely changed his narrative when it comes to turning the ball over and I feel like for the Giants to be in this game they’ll be playing keep away as best they can.  This process will help keep the points low.

The Eagles, yes, MAY be rusty in this game especially early on.  Neither team turns the ball over and will sustain long drives.  I see this game as a 24-17 slugfest comfortably covering our under while sending the Philly faithful home happy.

 

4. Dallas Cowboys (+4 -110) AT San Francisco 49ers – Sunday – 6:30 PM – FOX

Never in a million years did I see myself taking Dallas when this game was set in stone but here we are.

I played “Guess the Line” as the time ticked down on the Bucs season (and maybe Tom Brady’s career) and thought 49ers -5.5.  It opened at 3.5.  Huh?  Haven’t the Niners won 11 in a row?  Doesn’t Dak lead the league in INTs?  Doesn’t San Fran have the best defense this side of the Mississippi?

This got my ears perked up and I started to dig into the research.

My first question to you is, who have the Niners played this season?  When you look at the schedule, they shockingly only played two teams with a positive point differential.  The Seahawks (+9) who they waxed 3 times and the Chiefs (+126) who wiped the floor with SF back in Week 7.  Which team are the Cowboys closer to?  I’d have to say KC.

Now I’m not saying Dallas is as good as the Chiefs, no chance.  But the offenses are similar in matchup styles.  They both are predicated on stretch runs and getting the ball out quick.  Dak was fantastic in the Wildcard round.  Probably one of the best overall games he’s had as a pro.  He took everything that was given to him and had his way.  The Niners ain’t the Bucs I get that, but if McCarthy is smart he’ll look hard at that Chiefs tape.

I see RB Tony Pollard having himself a day on the edges.  The Niners linebackers are tackling machines inside the tackles but when they were forced to chase all day they got smoked.  If Dallas can sustain drives, they’ll score touchdowns.  I say that because the Cowboys have the #1 redzone scoring offense in the NFL and since Week 7 they’ve averaged 32 points a game and have the best 3rd down percentage in the league.

The glass slipper has to fall off Brock Purdy at some point, right?

He was awful in the first half last week vs a porous Seattle defense.  The Cowboys’ defense is better in every phase of the game than the Hawks so this challenge could be daunting.  When he’s pressured by a freak athlete like Micah Parsons, will he still be able to break the pocket and hit his weapons.  I’m not so sure.

The Niners may win by a field goal but forced to bet this in the Top 5, I’ll take the points with Dallas.

 

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (+9 -110) AT Kansas City Chiefs – Saturday – 4:30 PM – CBS

Oh baby we’re on one now.  Betting against both the favorite in the NFC and the top seed in the AFC.

A lot will be made of Andy Reid being 27-4 off a bye (how INSANE is that!?) and I get that.  He’s a genius in these spots and I certainly don’t expect the Jags to pull of this upset in KC.

But 9 points?  I mean how many times are the Chiefs going to be favored by more than a touchdown before the public stops pounding them?  One seeds are 13-25-1 against the spread in the last 20 years during the divisional round.  One seeds favored by under 10 points are an even worse 8-22-1 over that time.  KC as a team is 7-9-1 ATS this year mainly because they’re a public darling and get bet up to crazy numbers.

People simply don’t realize that although still every bit as dynamic, they’re a very different squad this season.

Without Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs have played a much more ball control offense.  They have no problem sustaining drives and no longer chuck it up to #10 to go get it.  Mahomes is brilliant in any offense and has thrived in this one throwing over 5,200 yards and 41 touchdowns.  That’s like playing a “Madden franchise on rookie” type numbers.  But I see the Jags hanging around!

They played earlier this year with the same betting line and KC hung on to cover a 27-17 victory.  Since that game, Jacksonville won seven of their last eight games and six in a row.  They’re smelling themselves and rightfully so.  Coach Doug Pederson and QB Trevor Lawrence are locked in right now.  Hell, they’re probably finishing each other’s sentences at this point. 

Speaking of Quarterbacks, the Chiefs were worst in the league in QB Rating against (95) which I’m sure is a shock to many of you.  They’re not an immovable object defensively at all.

Don’t forget, Dougy P has been to the mountain top before and was molded by Andy Reid.  This game rules and I believe it should be much tighter than a 9-point line suggests.  The sharps agree.  Give me the points.

 

2. Cincinnati Bengals AT Buffalo Bills (-5.5 -110) – Sunday – 3 PM – CBS

Easily the best game of the weekend comes Sunday afternoon in Buffalo.

I truly can not wait to see these two teams finish what they started back in Week 17.  Although that was only three short weeks ago, these teams come into this matchup a little different.

Cincy is banged up.  I know, I’ve been saying this for weeks but every week they lose another huge contributor.  They are officially down THREE offensive linemen in this game.  It’s gotten to a point now when Burrow has more than 3 step drop, he’s got 2 huge d lineman in his grill.  Joe Cool is as good as anyone at the intermediate routes but eventually you’ll have to score with the Bills by throwing it downfield and he simply doesn’t have the time. 

The Bills are top 10 in QB pressures and very rarely do they blitz.  Losing Von Miller earlier this season hurt but they still boast one of the deepest rotations up front in the game.  There is no doubt they will get theirs on Sunday.

QB Josh Allen is a damn roller coaster.  There is no other way to put it.  One drive he’ll launch a 60-yard dime to Diggs for a TD, the next he’ll throw in an impossibly tight window for a redzone pick.  But he STILL is the historic total yardage king of the Playoffs and he can smell this glorious opportunity.  I think Allen shows the world why he’s one of the top 2 QBs in the world in this game.

Intangibles are real in the playoffs because everything is so razor thin between these teams.  If Damar Hamlin is at this game and leads the team out of the tunnel, that roar will be heard down in New York City.  I hope he’s there.  It would be an amazing chapter in what has been a miraculous story these past few weeks.

The Bills looked awful last week vs. Miami.  Like I mentioned in the recap, they play around so much when their up its infuriating.  They know that just as much as we do and they’ll be ready to wash away that stink.  I love great teams coming off a bad outing while still winning.

This line opened at 6 for a second and was bet down as low as 3.5.  The pros came in and took this right back up to 5.5 so if I were you, I’d get it in ASAP before it hits that gross 6 number again.

The Bengals injuries, the Bills firepower, the electric homefield advantage, etc.  I LOVE the Bills Sunday.

 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars AT Kansas City Chiefs (UNDER 53 -110) – Saturday – 4:30 PM – CBS

We’re back at Arrowhead for my #1 pick in the Top 5.

I love this under so much and I’ll point to what I already detailed above.  The Chiefs aren’t the Chiefs of old who can light up the scoreboard in a matter of seconds.  They’re perfectly fine hitting check downs, hitches and screens to score their points. 

The Jaguars meanwhile have given up 16 points or less in 3 of their past 4 games and tightened up beautifully in last week’s 2nd half completing their improbable comeback vs the Chargers.  I think they have the athletes to keep the Chiefs in front of them.

You want a stat?  Here’s a fun one.  When Reid’s teams are favored by 7 or more, the unders cash at 70% clip.  I see this game mirroring the first time they played.  27-20, 28-21, 24-23.  Somewhere in there.  53 is simply not getting sniffed in this one.

 

Pick Recap

Eagles/Giants UNDER 48

Cowboys +4

Jaguars +9

Bills -5.5

Chiefs/Jaguars UNDER 53

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile