The Weekly Taste: Sunday's Stroll

The dawn of a new day. Not only because this is my first piece for Bet Karma, but also since we are in the creme de la creme of NFL matchups with the remaining six teams left being the best in the league. If you followed me at NBC Sports, you know it's been a solid football season, but not up to my usual standards. Nevertheless we will witness two monumental spots on the Sunday slate, both of which cant aggressively determine my futures plays. So without further ado, let's get to business.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills (-5.5) | Over/Under 48.5

Do I have a treat for you. Before we get into that, let's remember something. The Week 17 game between the Bills and Bengals closed as a 1/1.5 point line with Cincy as the home dog. Of course that game was cancelled after Damar Hamlin suffered a scary collapse on the field, to which now he is thankfully okay. Now, in the playoffs, the Bengals are 5.5, even 6 point dogs in Buffalo. In an era where home field advantage is worth the lowest it has ever been in recent memory (about 1.5 points), why are the Bills laying a touchdown in some spots?

It's called The Royal Mint. I did not create this play, but I certainly coined its name, and have been popularizing it in the modern bet game. The Royal Mint is when a ROAD DOG CLOSES at exactly 5 or 5.5 points. It doesn't always hit, but it has come home a lot more times than not throughout the years. Look at this season, the last two, last five, last 10, last 15, and you'll see the results over 65% ATS. Anyway, the Bengals were the best team in the NFL this regular season ATS (with the Giants), at 13-3. Regardless, they pose a serious threat to the team so many people believed to be the second coming, despite never actually accomplishing anything. The primary area to attack for Cincy is through the air with the devasting receiver room featuring Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. While the Bills defense, on paper, seems like they are an elite unit, they are definitely beatable. Buffalo had a lot of struggles against the high-end/top wide outs this year like Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, Garrett Wilson etc. Chase and Higgins should be no different. 

The losses of two key offensive linemen, OT Jonah Williams and OG Alex Cappa is cause for concern, but Joe Burrow has been sacked 92 times since 2021 (and missed two games) and it has not slowed him down. Without Von Miller, Buffalo has a solid pass rush (40 sacks T-14th), but it can be navigated by the Bengals with traps, chips, and RB protection. Cincy has won all nine games this year in which they scored at least 27 points. Don't be fooled by the Buffalo defense with the second best scoring unit (17.9 PPG) in the NFL.

I don't believe in the Bills. I think Josh allen is a phenomenal athlete with the ability to really wow you at times. I just can't buy into this team though. There is something missing. They have a good roster with a few great players that tip the scales. My belief in the summer was this team would be fine in the regular season, but once the playoffs came, there would be a time that they need Brian Daboll to make the correct play call in the key situation, and they would lose because he was not there - even aside from that fact that you have Allen throwing into triple coverage in the red zone. Not only does Cincy cover, but they win outright to face KC in another sensational AFCCG.

Prediction: Bengals win (+215) and cover 5.5 (-110)