Championship Sunday: Johnny V's Best Bets

I would have bet my life on Cincinnati to win last weekend. It was one of those kinds of plays that happens maybe once or twice in any given NFL season. That kind of play is of course referring to a "Bet the House, and if you don't have a house, buy one and then go bet it" type of one. The Weekly Taste did not fail in its Bet Karma debut.

Three more games remain in the season, and on Championship Sunday, we find out who will be representing their respective conferences. So instead of ripping up Gasparilla today like the old days, check out the breakdowns I'm about to throw your way. 

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3) | Over/Under 46.5

Don't look at me like that. There are 100% a couple of threes hanging out there. In remarkable fashion, the books are telling us that Philly is 1-1.5 points better than the Gold Rush on a neutral field. San Fran will be playing in their second consecutive title game, and third in four years. But the real question is if this number one seeded Eagles team is as good as they have made themselves out to be.

12. That's the number of games the 49ers have won in a row. That also signifies the second longest streak in franchise history after the 1989-1990 teams. This team has been a wagon all season long, even after a brutal 3-4 start. It's a team littered with show ponies and Yac Daddies that make their enemies shake with fear. On the flip side, one could also argue this Eagles team is built eerily similar to SF, and with a much better QB. The big question mark for the Niners has obviously been Brock Purdy, their 7-0 rookie out of Iowa State, who has 18 total scores to only four turnovers this year. The operation of the Kyle Shanahan offensive system has garnered tons of success for QB's and RB's alike for the better part of a decade. As long as Purdy continues to play within this system (and not turn the ball over) this team should have a great chance to pull of the road upset. This Philly defense, while it looks great on paper, is very beatable by land and air. If you take a look at where the Eagles have gotten in trouble this season, it's when teams have run the ball at least 30 times. All three times they lost that was the case, and the only times they won in those scenarios were against the Texans and Bears, who both had Philly on the ropes. That's where White Lightning comes in, aka Christian McCaffrey. Oh and by the way, San Fran is 6-0 when they have run the rock 30 times in the Purdy era. 

The Eagles rank as the best defense against the pass this season. They have been strong overall, but of course had fits against guys like Terry McLaurin, Cee Dee Lamb, and Christian Watson etc. Facing the bully brothers of Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk for 60 minutes will certainly test your will. The bottom line is this Philly defense lives to generate pressure on opposing offenses. Their NFL league leading 70 sacks has been the cornerstone of this unit. As great as they have been this season, they don't scare me. At the end of the day, I believe the pressure of being a number one seed, and expectations will ultimately prove to be too much for the birds.

The 49ers have been doubted a lot this weekened. I understand why, but I have to roll with the team and coach I have more faith in. 

Prediction: 49ers win (+132) and cover 3 (-120)

 

Teaser:

I had a great regular season on the teaser wave at 13-5 in the regular season. However, I'm 0-2 in the playoffs, but looking to turn this around. This week, the teaser is actually my best play on the board.

49ers +9 (originally +3)

Getting this team through the key numbers of a one posession finish is huge. This has the makings of a tight slugfest that will come down to the wire like last week. My opinion leads me to believe San Fran actually wins outright, so getting them with this many points is definitely the right side.

Bengals +7.5 (originally +1.5)

I actually like the Chiefs to win this game outright. Cincy has won three straight against KC - all in the 2022 calendar year- all by exactly three points. It has the makings of another field goal at the buzzer type of finish. The Bengals top to bottom are easily the better team, so when getting them past a touchdown and the extra point against a team they have controlled is the better side. Like the NFC Championship game, this will come down to the wire.

Summary:

49ers win (+132)

49ers +3 (-120)

Teaser: 49ers +9/Bengals +7.5 -120

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