NFL Championship Sunday - Top 5 Game Bets

It’s Championship Sunday on the Top 5!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Playoff Record: 5-5/ Overall: 50-45-5 (52.6%)

I can’t believe there’s only 3 NFL games left…

What a fun roller coaster it’s been for my first NFL season with Bet Karma.  I hope you all stuck with me and have been reaping all the benefits the last 2 months.

We have an incredible two games on Championship Sunday.  Not only did we get the four hottest teams like normal, we have the four BEST teams in my opinion.  The two #1 seeds (Eagles and Chiefs), the best defense on a 12-game win streak (49ers), and the best team against the spread (Bengals). 

Because there is no true Top 5 with only four “sides” to bet on, I’m going to give you my best bets (or leans) for both games individually.

 

Championship Sunday

San Francisco 49ers AT Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5 -115 O/U 45.5 -110) – 3 PM – FOX

This matchup has been on a collision course for months and we finally get it in South Philly Sunday afternoon.

The best team all year vs the hottest team in years.  The individual matchups, the superstar players, the young savant coaches, etc.  This game has it all.

I’m going with the home team and here’s why.

The Eagles have had a fantastic season coming into the playoffs at 14-3 and are 15-1 in games QB Jalen Hurts plays.  Hurts won’t win the MVP but he should absolutely get some votes as he’s been tremendous all year.  22 passing TDs and another 13 on the ground, there is no greater 11 on 11 threat than Hurts. 

What I mean by 11 on 11 is Jalen isn’t just a Quarterback, he’s a football player that needs to be identified each and every play unlike other QBs.  The Eagles have run roughshod all over the league because of this very fact.  Sure, there are other dual threat QBs, but no other team boasts this good of an offensive line and playmakers to compliment them.  The Eagles have that in spades.

The Run-Pass-Option offense coach Nick Sirianni and coordinator Shane Steichen run is taylor made to what Jalen provides.  They read linebackers and defensive ends until those players want to rip their hair out.  However, this isn’t any ol’ LB and D end.  This is DPOY Nick Bosa and Fred Warner’s crew.

The Niners are a special defense, that is a fact.  They thrive on physicality and tackle better than any defense that lines up right now.  However, they haven’t played anyone near as good as the Eagles and their 17 combined Pro Bowlers/Alternates.

On defense, Philly boasts an historic pass rush totaling 70 regular season sacks.  That’s just two off the NFL record and FIFTEEN better than the next best team.  QB Brock Purdy has been fantastic and I truly believe he will have every opportunity to stamp himself as the Niners QB of the future.  But let’s look at that clean 7-0 record.

He has only played two road games.  One in Seattle and the other in Las Vegas.  Seattle is a tough place to play, even still.  But the Niners completely overmatched them in all three games this season.  Vegas was 70% Niners fans and took them to the brink. 

This is Philadelphia.  This is the Linc.  This is the NFC Championship Game.

I can’t see this young 7th round rookie going into that environment and winning this game.  Something no rookie QB in history has ever done.  Rookie QBs in the championship round are 0-4 straight up and 1-3 ATS (the one being a 14-point line).  There’s plenty of tape on the kid now too.  The Eagles ferocious pass rush which has FOUR guys tallying 10+ sacks (first time in history) know he likes to backpedal and break to his left.  If he has any trouble with the timing routes, Philly will eat him alive.

I think the Eagles have success reading Nick Bosa just like they did to Micah Parsons earlier this season which put him in a torture chamber.  They have to make sure that the redzone opportunities equate to TDs and if they do that, they could even win comfortably.

Pick: Eagles -2.5

Lean: Over 45.5

 

Cincinnati Bengals AT Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5 -110 O/U 48 -110) – 6:30 PM – CBS

Burrow/Mahomes 4 comes to you live at Burro…Arrowhead Stadium under the lights and I can’t wait for this matchup.

It is beyond well documented what Joe Cool has done to the Chiefs in his young career.  That’s win, and every single time.  Can it happen again?

I say yes.

If you’re an avid reader of the Top 5 you know there has been many, many weeks I have predicted the Bengals ATS demise.  And every single week, they stuff my foot directly in my throat.  I’m not doing it again.  This team is not only loaded with talent, they’re confident as hell.  No, they’re cocky as hell.

Joe Burrow is quite simply the coolest dude doing it right now.  He has zero fear or conscious and has been an absolute bear to get off the field in situational football.  His accuracy is nearing historic levels on intermediate routes and he’s the perfect mix of “taking what’s given to him” and “airing it out”.

What I mean by that is he has absolutely no problem hitting one of his multitude of stud weapons for 8 yds or 38.  I believe that the couple of years he has had to run for his life behind a lackluster or injured offensive line has only helped his timing.  He is no longer holding the ball waiting; he’s attacking and at an incredibly high level.

The Chiefs run the AFC in the regular season and this will be their FIFTH STRAIGHT AFC Title game in their building.  QB Patrick Mahomes is the MVP but as we all know, he’s on a bad wheel.  We think!  We don’t really know how he’s feeling other than holding microscopes to how he walks off a press conference podium and the fact he is completely off the injury report.  He may just be Superman.

Even if he is say at 80% (which I believe to be generous), Mahomes greatness is predicated on his ability to create.  Sure, he can sit in the pocket and sling it better than most, but where he kills you is his ingenuity. 

The Bengals defense is severely underrated even though they’ve proved it for two seasons.  They fly around, have a great defensive line, and are sneaky the best statistical defense in 2nd halves of games over the past 20 contests.  If the Chiefs can’t hold their ground, it could be big time trouble for Mahomes.

I believe for KC to win this game, they HAVE to run the ball.  They ran it great last week but that’s not their M.O.  They want to have motion, they want to move the pocket, they want down field opportunities.  For that to happen they need time and mobility from their QB.  I’m incredibly interested to see how future HOF coach Andy Reid schemes this up.

I also love the under in this game similar to my reasoning for loving the unders last week.  We’re in the nitty gritty now and we have two teams that know each other well.  I see this game being extremely tight with plays being made in front of the safeties, not behind them.  Both teams will want to sustain drives and take what’s there, especially with Mahomes possibly hobbling. 

Joe Burrow is now 19-1 ATS in games their less than a 7-point underdog.  My God.  Give me Cincy to be the more physical and efficient team Sunday night as they book their 2nd consecutive trip to the Super Bowl.

Pick: Bengals +1.5

Pick: Under 48

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

 

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile