The Weekly Taste: Super Bowl Sunday

The 2022 NFL season has been turbulent to say the least. In all honesty, it wasn't good. It was actually one of the worst seasons in recent memory in my opinion. At least your boy did pretty good with the NFL awards futures bets. The culimation of this season, as per usual, is the highly anticipated Super Bowl. We have a couple of patty wagons facing off in the desert between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. Who ya got?

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) | Over/Under 50.5

Here's the deal. This is a tough one to predict. For the last few Super Bowl's I knew who was going to win. I had the feeling in my stomach. The one we have this year is as good as a coin flip to me. The Eagles ridiculously easy Mickey Mouse schedule left them with no challenges this year. And when they finally get one in the 49ers, they lose both of their QB's and the officiating was probably instructed to make sure everything went their way. For the Chiefs, you can make the case they really are not that good after Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Chris Jones. And if you watched KC this season, you would know there were about five more games they should have lost that they didn't. I can predict paths to victory for both squads, but at the end of the day, who shows up?

KC overcame a lot of preseason doubts from a ton of people, myself included. Because Mahomes is so special, and plays in one of the best offensive systems in NFL history, he was the catalyst for dragging the Chiefs to a 14-3 record and No.1 seed in the AFC (plus the MVP) without Tyreek Hill. Nevertheless, they led the NFL in scoring with 29.2 PPG and total offense at 413.6 YPG. Not too shabby. Here's the formula for KC to win: run the rock 30 times, mix in downfield passes to test the gambling Eagles' corners, and target Kelce 15+ times against the suspect linebackers in coverage. Remember I diced it up a couple weeks ago when I said all three of Philly's losses this year were when teams ran the ball at least 30 times. The two wins they had in that situation were against Houston and Chicago, both teams had the Eagles on the ropes. On paper, the Eagles were solid against Tight ends this year allowing 81 catches, 801 yards, and 3 tuddies. However, they hardly faced any elite players at the position, and you're not facing better than Kelce right now. Let's see how those downhill backers fare against him if Mahomes has time. Speaking of which, Philly led the NFL in sacks (70) with the Chiefs being behind them (55). Althought 15 was only dropped 26 times in 17 games this year, there were games he was sacked three or four times. Out of the five games this season he was dropped three or more times, they either lost or had the game come down to the wire in all but one. If that line can't or doesn't hold up, KC has NO chance. 

I'll be frank. I'm not a huge fan of the Eagles (outside of Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, and DeVonta Smith), or their rotten fans. They do have a hell of a team construct. Depth and playmakers at every turn with an outstanding offensive scheme perfectly designed to fit Hurts' electric playing style. Philly is a good team, no denying that. The question against KC will be if they can get that consistent pressure - especially with the front four- and if they can succeed with their heavy artillery ground attack. The Chiefs defense has been successful in one area: sacks. Along with those sacks, they've managed to get a few takeaways, but nothing to brag about. Usually though, their pressure and turnovers have gone hand in hand. They have held their own against the run (107.2 YPG -8th in NFL), but have struggled to containt backs in the pass game, allowing the most catches (112) and fourth most yards (806). Additionally, they have allowed the fifth most YAC in the league this year, which is bad news playing against a team that have several guys that can take it to the house on any play. The Eagles have several weaknesses to take advantage of. The key will be how well Hurts can effectively play from the pocket.

Aside from my ticket on them, I'm siding with KC. It's still a tad peculiar that the Eagles have been the favorite for almost two full weeks. I still think there are serious questions about Philly. And of course I can see this game going 17.5 different ways. All comes down to execution. But at the end of the day, you're giving me Mahomes as an underdog in a situation he's been in before? Need to back the future Hall of Famer. Oh and by the way, if you like the Chiefs to win, you're better off grabbing Mahomes at +130 for the MVP because there's basically no chance KC wins without the QB getting it. He's got about a 97% chance to win the award. Remember their SB win against the 49ers where he accounted for three turnovers and still won over Damian Williams, who tallied over 100 rush yards and two scores.

Prediction: Chiefs ML +105