Super Bowl Sunday - Top 5 Game Bets

It is FINALLY Super Bowl Sunday on the Top 5!

Every week I brought you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend and we've reached the finish line.

The NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles will take on the AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs in sunny Scotsdale, AZ in what is shaping up to be an absolute classic!

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Playoff Record: 7-6/ Overall: 52-46-5 (53.1%)

We have clinched at least an over 52% NFL Year 1 with Bet Karma.  A mediocre season on the whole but rode a two plus month wave of winning to finish my rookie year.  I have certainly grown as a handicapper as the season wore on and hope you all enjoyed the recent hot run!

 

Super Bowl 57

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5 -110 O/U 51 -110) - 6:30 PM EST - FOX

Offensive Rankings

Eagles (Total: 3rd / Passing: 9th / Rushing: 5th)

Chiefs (Total: 1st / Passing: 1st / Rushing: 20th) 

Defensive Rankings

Eagles (Total: 2nd/ Passing: 1st / Rushing  16th)

Chiefs (Total: 11th / Passing: 18th / Rushing: 8th)

We have the two #1 seeds facing off for the Lombardi and the real winner here is us, the fans.  What a matchup!

Everyone enjoys a good upset from time to time but there is nothing better than the biggest game of the year being played between the two best teams.  This game has a truly unlimited number of storylines, matchups, and handicapping angles.  However, I would aim to guess every gambler alive had at least a strong feeling where they were going to go with this game 13 days ago.  

For me, that's with the Birds and I'll explain why.

Over the past couple of weeks, you have likely heard your favorite analyst and social news feed lament about the Eagles both good and bad. 

The good - the trenches (specifically the run game and pass rush), the drastic improvement with the QB, the staff littered with future head coaches, the health, and the talent from starter 1 to 22. 

The bad - the ease and somewhat luckiness of the schedule, the injured shoulder and general lack of playoff stats for Jalen Hurts, and the brashness of the head coach.

The good is spot on, this team rules.  They have put together one of the finest seasons these eyes have seen in a very long time.  The bad, I mean, to me they are flat out reaches trying to hype a Super Bowl.

Seeing analysts who I respect try and say the Eagles haven't played anyone makes me laugh.  Is it maybe because they exposed and essentially beat the hell out of whomever lined up across from them each week?  I think so.  The Vikings were good until they weren't.  The Titans were tough until they softened.  The Lions won 9 games.  The Packers didn't get knocked out until Week 18.  The Giants made the postseason, won a playoff game, had the Coach of the Year and the Eagles smashed them three times!  

Listen, I get that in the year 2023, lauding a team for their achievements doesn't get the clicks that dissecting flaws does.  "Take" shows live and die by the negative.  How tantalizing would it be if Stephen A Smith sat up there and talked about how dominant the Eagles O and D lines were for 2 straight hours 5 days a week?  Not very.  

But this team is one of those true greats that pass every eye AND statistical test.  

Offensively, Philly ranks 3rd overall.  Yes, the Eagles love to run the ball, but they are incredibly balanced in totality.  They've won games each and every way this season.  In Week 12 vs the Packers, the Eagles ran for 363 yards and 3 TDs.  The very next week vs the Titans, Jalen Hurts threw for 380 yards and 3 TDs.  Both comfy wins (the Packers scored late with Jordan Love), both complete opposite paths to victory.  The Eagles possess so many ways to beat you that it's going to take a Herculean coaching/QB performance to beat them.  

Enter Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.

Reid is a surefire Hall of Famer now entering his fourth Super Bowl appearance.  He has been a head coach 24 years in this league, 10 with the Chiefs and the other 14 with yes, the very same Philadelphia Eagles.  You obviously know that.  You can't open your eyes in the morning without someone shouting it at you.  "ANDY REID VS. HIS OLD TEAM!"  

There is no question the Chiefs have the edge at Head Coach.  Reid is going to have some tricks up his sleeve in this game and has the best player on the planet manning his offense.  I find that a lot of gamblers are having trouble betting against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog.  Trust me, this has entered and swam around in my head as well.  Mahomes is the MVP (Of note - regular season MVPs are 0-9 in their last 9 Super Bowls) and the best QB in the league.  What he did this year after losing Tyreek Hill is insane and he deserved to win the award.  A lot of Eagles backers are pointing to Mahomes having a high ankle sprain that may flare up Sunday.  I'm not even going there.  I actually think he will show little to no regression in terms of what he does unless, of course, someone rolls up on him again.

Mahomes is lethal in and around the pocket.  He scrambles but not as much as you think.  He wants to dissect defenses with his feet in place.  Here's the problem, the Eagles feast on QB's and they don't discriminate on how.  Philly led the league with 70 sacks.  The Chiefs ironically had the 2nd most... with FIFTEEN less at 55.  Haason Reddick, Brandon Graham, Josh Sweat and Javon Hargrave all eclipsed 10 on the year.  That's the first time that has happened since the "Sack" began being tallied in 1984.  Reddick enters this game with 19.5 sacks combined season/playoffs.  There are a number of ways you can look at this and the haters will say it's because they didn't play top flight QBs or because they always had the lead and could pin their ears back.  I mean, ok sure.  70 sacks is 70 sacks.

Speaking to that and shout out to my fellow nerds; the Eagles led the league with 11.5% sack rate on pass plays.  That's the best number this century.  In fact, the Eagles and the 2nd ranked defense were the same distance away from each other than 2nd was to 29th.  They essentially lapped the field in sack rate.  Sheesh.

KC meanwhile, has a middle of the road pass protection sitting at 16th ranked DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).  Their right tackle Andrew Wylie was a lowly 63rd in PFF (Pro Football Focus) rankings.  Who is he going to face most of the game?  That beast Haason Reddick.  Good luck outrunning him on an ankle sprain Patrick.

Speaking of health, the Eagles come into the Super Bowl with each and every one of the 22 starters they opened the season with in September.  That's UNHEARD of.  The Chiefs meanwhile look like they'll get Smith-Schuster and Toney back, but both are dinged up.  Not to mention all-world tight end Travis Kelce said he had to be shot up due to intense back spasms before the Bengals game.  They also have injuries in the defensive secondary coupled with rookies on the outside.  

The reality is Patrick Mahomes is going to have to be incredible to win this game and I'm fully aware he is capable of that.  The beauty with him is it doesn't matter whether they have a lead or are down by two scores, he is NEVER out of it.  On the other side, Philly clearly plays better when they have a lead.  They will ground and pound you until you beg them to stop... and then run right down your throat again.  

I'll reiterate what I said earlier, you probably have known which side you're taking for at least a week and I don't expect someone betting Patty Mahomes to jump over to the Brotherly Love side now.  But sometimes, you just have to back the more talented, healthier, and diverse team.  The Eagles are likely going to lose a ton of these players in the off-season and although the Chiefs have been there more often recently, Philly has a great mix of "been there before" vets and humble young stars.  They know this incredibly special team will look different come Monday. 

They have to finish, and finish they will.

Pick: Eagles -1.5

Lean: Under 51

 

This is the Top 5 after all so let me hit you with 4 of my favorite props.

- Opening Kickoff to be a Touchback - NO: +140 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

I bet this every year because it provides that excitement on the first play of the game.  I always feel like the returner is so juiced up to take the ball out, so I'll sprinkle a little on this plus money.  Kickers Butker and Elliott produce touchbacks at only just over 60% each.

- Miles Sanders - Most Rush Yards: +150 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

I have a small ticket on Sanders to win the MVP as well.  I love all the Sanders prop overs actually but this one the most.  The Eagles have lessened the load on their pro bowl running back the past month because they could.  This is the Super Bowl and quite possibly Miles' last game in midnight green.  I expect him to show out.

- AJ Brown - Player with Longest Reception: +225 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Each time I close my eyes I see #11 popping a huge play.  It may be a slant and go, it may be a vertical bomb, but at some point, Brown will take the top off the Chiefs secondary.

- Eagles to Convert a 4th Down in their Own Territory: +300 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Sirianni and Shane Steichen are mad geniuses on 4th down and boast a historic 4th down conversion rate.  They "went for it" in their own territory several times this season and won't be afraid to do it on the sport's biggest stage.

 

Thank you again to everyone who read the Top 5 this season and enjoy the Super Bowl!

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile