The Weekly Taste: College Baseball Best Bets (3/3/23)

So far, so good. This College Baseball season has brought me joy I haven't felt since the new season of Emily in Paris came out. A lot of these early season matchups have been exciting, largely because they are out of conference games that we won't see until June. It's so important for teams in tougher conferences to get out to fast starts because by racking up wins, they position themselves for not only a spot in the NCAA Tournament, but better seedings. March is one of my favorite months to bet this sports because by now, we have a good feel about certain teams before the book catches on. Let's get hot on a Friday.

Miami Hurricanes (+105) @ Florida Gators (-135) | Total: N/A

Unfortunately, the totals and run lines are a bit slow to open on sportsbooks, at least early in the season. That being said, there's plenty of good matchups with fair prices that can be decided via the moneyline. Not only my favorite look of the day, but best series of the weekend is between the Hurricanes and Gators, two top 25 teams. In a contest littered with first round picks, JohnnyVTV has a distinct edge. 

The Florida Gators are a straight up DADDY WAGON. I have them ranked as number 2 in the country behind LSU. Their offense profiles as a top 3 unit at the moment, with a pitching staff that is at worst third best behind Tennessee and Wake Forest. You can really make a case no team has as much depth and playmakers in the country than Florida does. They're going to have two players taken in the first round for sure in 2023, with the possibility of them both as top 10 picks in star OF Wyatt Langford and SP Hurston Waldrep. Now, they expanded sophomore slugger, Jac Caglianone, into a pitcher after focusing primarily on mashing taters in 2022. Cags not only leads the country in round trippers (8), but he's tallied 15 punchies and a 2.38 ERA in two starts this season (11.1 IP). As he blossoms into the superstar that he is, Jac Jack is pushing hard to be the number 1 propsect in the country for 2024. This hot start gives me good vibes for this weekend's series. 

On the bumpski for Florida is their current ace (Friday guy), Brandon Sproat. Sproat took over as the ace in the middle of last year after one of the top projected pitchers, Hunter Barco, went down with a torn UCL. He was selected as a third round pick to the Mets, which he ultimately declined. Sproat's got a rocket heater that zooms into triple digit territory, something that has propeled his 16 strikeouts in 10.2 IP this season. However, he's had some early season struggles against the likes of Charleston Southern and Cincinnati. While one would surmise that he figures it out sooner than later, the run support this power offense is providing is off the charts. These Gators have tallied at least eight runs in six straight contests, and nine of 10 overall. Even better, they draw the struggling Miami ace, Gage Ziehl.

Just to give you an idea, Ziehl made 30 appearances as a freshman last year, none of them as a starter. All of the sudden in 2023, they decide he should be the Friday guy to replace Carson Palmquist. In his two outings against Penn State and Dartmouth, he's been curb stomped with nine earned runs and 14 hits in seven innings. It's fair to say that if he is indeed capable of heading this rotation, he needs a little more time to settle in. In the meantime, there isn't much to fret about with this top heavy 'Canes roster. The two biggest concerns would be slugger Third Basemen Yohandy Morales (likely top 20 pick), and lights out closer Andrew Walters. The 7-2 Hurricanes are no push over, but if they were to start stomping around in Gainesville this weekend, it would be because a few players. 

The bottom line is Florida is one of the six or seven teams that have a legit chance to win it all in 2023. Even in SEC play, there won't be many times you can grab them at a -135 price. With the market way too overzealous on an undermatched Miami team, Florida is the edge in this tight series. This is absolutely my favorite play of the day. 

Side Note: With no total on the board yet, keep a lookout later in the day. Given how powerful these offenses are, and shaky the pitching has been, this could be an absolute slugfest. I would be good to take the over at 12.5 or lower.

Prediction: Florida Gators ML (-135)