The Weekly Taste: College Baseball Best Bet (3/4/23)

All in all, Friday was a great day that featured a ton of good College Baseball contests. The Daddy Wagon Florida Gators flexed their muscles on Miami after the first inning, and the rest is history. Friday was great, but Saturday needs to be better.

Miami Hurricanes (+105) @ Florida Gators (-135) | Total: 13.5

Again? Again. There was a reason Florida was my top play yesterday. On my Breaking Bet podcast yesterday, I spoke about the importance of reading the series. The Gators were always going to be another smash play for me on Saturday as well, largely because they have one of the best pitching prospects in the nation, Hurston Waldrep.

Waldrep, a Southern Miss transfer, has gotten out to a roaring start on his new team.19 K’s in 11 innings with four earned runs. The five walks isn’t a concern, just something that should correct itself as the season progresses. Although he played in a much easier conference in 2022, he totaled 140 punchies (to just 33 walks) in 90 innings, so I’m sure it will be fine. His high 90’s fastball, bending slider, and split change has kept a lot of batters off balance, and I would imagine that continues to be a trend against a Miami team that has punched out at least 10 times in two of the last three contests. In combination with the dominance of the starting pitcher, their offense absolutely rakes. Putting up another 10 runs in the opener, that marks seventh straight contest they have notched at least eight runs. 

This Florida team puts a lot of pressure on their opponents in several different ways. The star pupil OF Wyatt Langford (two HR on Friday, a likely top five draft pick in July, is on fire right now with a .429 average and five bombs to start his 2023 campaign. With the amount of runs this team can drop, it’s perhaps the biggest test of the year for Miami’s Saturday guy Karson Ligon. He’s off to a hot start as well, compiling 13.2 IP of one run ball against Penn St and Dartmouth. Ligon got bombed by the better teams last season, but this time last year he went seven strong innings of one run ball against this Gators squad. If Florida can stay patient, and make Ligon throw a lot of deep counts, it’s only a matter of time before they get to him. 

I’ll say the same thing I said ahead of the opener, the only way Miami can win is if Yohandy Morales takes control of the game. Yesterday he hit one of the furthest ta-ta’s I’ve ever seen in a college game. Yo-Yo profiles as a top 15 pick in this summer’s draft, a Nick Castellanos type of comparison. While it’s definitely possible, it’s still difficult for a ‘Canes roster that is extremely top heavy. If Waldrep pitches to his capability, he should be able to dot this lineup.

The bottom line is Florida is one of the six or seven teams that have a legit chance to win it all in 2023. Even in SEC play, there won't be many times you can grab them at a -135 price. With the market way too overzealous on an undermatched Miami team, Florida is the edge in this tight series. This is absolutely my favorite play of the day, again 

Side Note: The total closed at 11 yesterday, and opened at 13.5 today. I sent out a tweet liking the over for yesterday’s game, and it looks like they learned 11 is too low for a Gator game

Prediction: Florida Gators ML (-135)