The Weekly Taste: College Baseball Best Bets (3/17)

The College Baseball season has been a grind thus far. This week, conference play commences across the board, which is an electric time of the season. Now a lot of you might be asking why I’m so involved in College Baseball instead of the March Madness Tournament at the moment. I have no answer for it. There’s a ton of plays on my card today, but you’re going to have to check out Breaking Bet to see them all. Happy St. Patrick’s Day. And remember, St. Patrick was ITALIAN.

 

#2 Tennessee Volunteers (-280) @ Missouri Tigers (+220) | Over/Under 9.5

 

There’s been a secret weapon for me every Friday (or Game 1 of the series), and you’ll find out what it is shortly. 

 

The Tennessee Volunteers came up short a season ago, despite possessing one of the best teams in College Baseball history. Their roster, particularly lineup, got gutted in the MLB Draft in July losing all but two starters from a season ago. What remained intact - mostly - was their elite pitching rotation. The Vols have likely three first rounders between this year and next, but just to have three weekend starters of this caliber is almost unheard of. The guy who heads the rotation is Chase Dollander, arguably the best pitching prospect since Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg. With an electric four-pitch arsenal cemented by a high 90’s heater, Dollander is able to throw all his pitches with incredible command and movement. And although he hasn’t gotten off to the typical start he is accustomed to, it’s been pretty good nonetheless (3-1, 2.45 ERA, 41 k’s in 22 IP). We’re backing the guy, who I believe should be the top pick in this summer’s draft. 

 

The Vols offense, which has heated up tremendously over the last couple of weeks (six plus runs scored in last 11 games), will battle Mizzou’s ace Chandler Murphy. Murphy has been decent this season with his 3.48 ERA across four starts. The 13-3 Tigers squad has benefitted from an easy schedule, and is projected to be at the bottom of the SEC in 2023. You can never take this conference for granted because any SEC team could give most squads across the country problems, but we should see UT flex their muscles as they often do on Friday nights.

 

While I am not giving out a direct Vols ML play at this price, it’s the first leg of our parlay. 

 

Leg #1: Vols -280

 

#1 LSU Tigers (-175) @ #15 Texas A&M Aggies (+140) | Over/Under 10.5

 

I’ll save you the suspense. LSU is the second leg of this here parleezy. Let me explain why.

 

Paul Skenes, the Air Force transfer, has been unbelievable. 4-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 48 punchouts in just 24 innings. His stuff is unhittable with a fast ball that profiles over 100 MPH and a fall off the table slide piece. His impeccable command has also allowed him to go six innings in every start. He is likely going to be the second arm off the board this summer after Dollander. Facing a TAMU lineup that is a shell of itself from the team that made the College World Series last year, Skenes should be in a good position to excel in his SEC debut.

 

The real firepower of this Tiger team is the lineup. Led by the consensus number one pick, Dylan Crews, LSU has roared out to score 195 runs in 17 games (third best in NCAA). With Crews batting a comical .519, he provides a strong anchor to an offense that can score 20 on any given night. With all of the weapons this offense possesses, it could be tough sledding for the Aggie ace Nathan Dettmer who got banged up by Louisville a couple weeks ago. While I do believe Dettmer is a strong pitcher when he’s on, he’s never faced a DADDY WAGON like this LSU team. 

 

They’re the best team in the country for a reason. The Tennessee/LSU ML parlay every Game 1 of the series is a religious bet for me this season. It should hit a lot more times than not. Let’s play LSU straight and in the parlay.

 

Leg #2: LSU -175

 

Parlay: LSU/Tennessee ML +113

 

Play: LSU ML -175