The Weekly Taste: College Baseball Best Bets (3/24/23)

Every week in conference play feels like Christmas. There’s usually a bunch of new and exciting matchups that provide a ton of entertainment, and of course, valuable lines. In an effort to keep it short and sweet, I’ll just hang a couple of my favorites, and you’ll have to tune into Breaking Bet at 1pm ET on Friday to hear the rest. 

 

#5 Arkansas Razorbacks (+135) @ #1 LSU Tigers (-165) | Total: N/A

Because I’m giving these plays out when I am, they usually come without a runline or a total. You’ll usually find that somewhere between 11am-Noon ET each day. Regardless, my best play here isn’t coming from a total, or the run line. 

 

What we’re witnessing right now is a historic stretch by LSU’s ace pitcher, Paul Skenes. A transfer from the Air Force, Skenes has done nothing but garner Stephen Strasburg comparisons as a college prospect. What he’s doing right now hasn’t been seen in a long time. In (five starts) 30.1 innings, he has tallied 59 punchouts to only four free passes, while compiling a microscopic 0.59 ERA. And he’s doing this while pitching for the best team in America, a team that is top five in batting average, OPS, and runs scored. The offense, led by All-American and top prospect Dylan Crews, has managed to total 49 runs in Skenes’ first five starts this season. While Crews is likely to go number one overall this summer, his teammate could push the envelope to usurp that if he continues his torrid pace. With a 100 MPH heater, fall off the table slider, and sparkling change up, Paul Skenes is somebody I have to bet pretty much everytime he takes the mound, especially at this number.

 

Arkansas is one of the quietest top seeds I’ve heard about in a while. They get virtually no publicity or hype, but they allow their winning to speak for itself. The strength of this team, even last year, is their pitching - mainly the bullpen. However, the guy that heads this rotation is Sophomore Hagen Smith. Smith won over a lot of fans last season for his strong performance in the College World Series. This year, he’s off to an impressive 3-0 start with a 1.17 ERA and 34 punchouts in 23 innings. The lefty has provided stability at the top of the rotation for this hogs team. With a couple boppers in the lineup, like Jered Wegner and Kendall Diggs, This Razorbacks unit is a formidable opponent that I expect not only gives LSU a hard time, but even challenges them to take the series.

 

That being said, I have to take LSU today. I’m not ready to bet against Skenes. However, I do think Arkansas is live to be the first team to take a series against the mighty Tigers this year. Oh, and based on the matchup, we could see a big time pitchers duel this afternoon. Anything set 9.5 or higher is a good play to the under. I grabbed this moneyline at -155 for LSU, it’s good to -190.

 

Play: LSU ML (-165)

 

Washington Huskies (+240) @ #7 UCLA Bruins (-305) | Total: N/A

 

This is no doubt one of my favorite games of the Friday slate. The #7 Bruins have garnered a lot of attention from the College Baseball press about having a legit team. Maybe they do, and then again, maybe they don’t.

 

What UCLA does have is a strong pitching rotation, led by their Friday guy, Jake Brooks. Brooks has been a little hit or miss to start the season, though. His 4.91 ERA has been a product of his inconsistency, and war wounds against Vandy. He doesn’t have elite stuff, but has still managed 27 K’s in 25.2 innings. Facing this Huskies offense, he could struggle against the persistent lineup led by Aj Guerrero, Cam Clayton, and Will Simpson. And the bigger problem for him, his offense is not particularly great. While the Bruins have a couple of hot hitters right now, the cause for concern lies in who Washington has on the mound.

 

Kiefer Lord (a.k.a. Chief Kiefer Lord Sosa) is one of my favorite pitchers in the NCAA. Not many know who he is if you don’t follow the team. Lord has a high 90’s heater with a big 12-6 curveball. His wind up is a bit whacky and unorthodox, but he’s had success. The Carleton transfer has 35 K’s in 27.2 IP to go along with a strong 2.60 ERA. The biggest reason I like him tonight is because he got beat up by Rhode Island in a shocking manner in his last start. Getting Lord on a big bounce back stage against a top ranked conference opponent has upset written all over it. The Bruins are an overrated team, and because the books don’t really know much about Washington, they hung a crooked price.

 

If Washington takes one game in this series, I think it is tonight. Lord has the stuff and the makeup to go out and dot tonight. This could be one of my favorite upsets of the entire season by moneyline price. The biggest so far was Grand Canyon (+295) vs. Tennessee on opening weekend.

 

Play: Washington ML (+240)