The Weekly Taste: Best 2023 MLB Futures Bets for the American League

The MLB season is upon us. And I for one, haven’t been this excited in a while. It’s always great to just sit back and watch your favorite players and teams go to war while you’re holding a big fat ticket. Although I am an avid game to game bettor, there’s nothing that tickles my fancy more than the futures markets. Any real bettor will tell you that’s where the money is, as well as the best value on the board. In this edition, we’re hitting my favorite futures in the AL Markets. Buona furtuna. 

 

JohnnyVTV’s Best AL Futures Bets:

 

Luis Castillo AL Cy Young (+1800)

 

Castillo was a guy I picked in 2019 to win the NL Cy Young with the Reds. When I watched him pitch as a youngster, I thought to myself he has to win this award at least once in his career. After his breakout campaign in 2019, he hadn’t really progressed because of nagging injuries. The pitcher I saw wasn’t even looking like an ace. But after his impressive 2022 season, I saw that stud again. Compiling a sub-3.00 ERA for the first time in his career, while managing a 10.0 K/9 rate, it looks like Castillo has been reborn thanks to a reviving trade to one of the MLB’s best and most exciting teams. 

 

In a conference with loaded pitching, I believe he can stand out and lead this Seattle team to the promised land. If Castillo can keep that walk rate in the mid 2.0’s, compile about 190 IP (and keep a 10.0 K/9 or better), it will propel him to have an ERA between 2.25-2.40, which could be enough. Playing behind this offense that should score plenty of runs, he’ll have the opportunity to pitch more freely -without the worry of having to not allow more than two runs in order to win. Most importantly, the value at 18/1 is there. If Castillo has a 2.30 ERA with over 200 K’s in 190 IP, it’s hard to imagine he’s not in the running in 2023. 

 

Seattle Mariners to win the World Series (+2000)

 

Castillo is only one-fifth of this pitching rotation that has a case to be the best in baseball. With ceilings of Robbie Ray (a former Cy Young winner), Logan Gilbert, and the youngster George Kirby, this Seattle staff could provide fits to opposing offenses all season long. Not to mention, a few solid pieces in the back end of the bullpen, like Paul Sewald and Andres Munoz. As a team, the Mariners had the eighth best team ERA (3.59) in the MLB last season. Like we’ve seen from a lot of the previous World Series winners, pitching is key in October, and these boys have it in bunches. 

 

Anybody that followed me last season knew how high I was on Seattle. I was so upset when they folded to the Astros in the playoffs. This team only improved in the off-season, adding Blue Jays raking OF Teoscar Hernandez, who compiled 121 taters and 119 doubles in Toronto from 2018-2022. But the big reason I had high expectations on this team was because of their prized superstar, Julio Rodriguez, who only had 28 bombs and 25 steals in 132 games as a rookie. There’s a lot of firepower for Seattle on both sides of the ball, so the fact that we’re getting them at 20/1 is ludicrous. In my honest opinion, the only team that can truly stand in their way in the AL, is Houston. 

 

This year, I believe this ultra-deep Seattle squad finishes the job. 

 

Seattle Mariners to win the AL (+1000)

 

Pretty much a reference to what I explained above. This is one of the deepest teams in not only the American League, but the MLB. Seattle is one of the best seven or eight rosters in the league. The Astros are the one team that has given them problems. For a 10/1 ticket, it’s too good to not take a bite on.

 

Triston McKenzie AL Cy Young (+4000)  0.5 units

 

Julio Rodriguez to lead MLB in Home Runs (+4200)  0.5 units

 

Sensing a common theme here? Rodriguez had 28 round trippers in only 132 games as a rookie. And if you watch him play last season, especially early on in the year, then you’ll know he was terrible in April and the first half of May. Compiling no home runs until May 7th, he struck out 36 times before that, and batted .205 in April. 

 

His biggest issue was lack of pitch recognition, plate discipline, and breaking balls. Once he figured it out though, he was a terror to deal with. Even in a pitcher friendly Seattle park, J Rod has 45 home run power. If he can manage to log 155 games this season, we could see him multiply his rookie total by 1.5 times. Excluding the Covid season of 2020, the MLB tater leader has been under 50 home runs in seven of the last 11 years. 

 

While it’s difficult battling an Aaron Judge playing Yankee Stadium’s wiffle ball park or Kyle Schwarber in a very friendly hitter’s park, Julio has the capability to be there in the end. If he hits 45 bombs this season, he will be there at the end of the season. 42/1 is way too big of a number to not take a swing on. Anything 30/1 or better is fair game.

 

Shohei Ohtani AL MVP (+220)

 

I’m not picking Ohtani to win the MVP because I want to, but because I feel like I have to. Yes, Ohtani is incredible, no denying that. But honestly, I’m so sick of him and the media’s infatuation with him. The fact that Aaron Judge set the record for most Home Runs in the AL last year (62), and literally willed the Yankees to the playoffs, and people still thought Ohtani should have won pisses me off. It speaks volumes. 

 

This is basically a bet on Ohtani’s health because if he has even an average season, it’s likely that writers will vote him in since he got “robbed” in 2022. Nonetheless, Shohei should still mash at least 30-35 dingers and compile 200 K’s, so even if the Angels are 1-161, he’ll win this award.

 

We might as well not even have a voting system anymore, and give him the award.

 

If you are inclined to take a stab elsewhere, may I suggest Luis Robert (60/1) and Byron Buxton (40/1).

 

Jorge Matteo to lead MLB in Steals (+5000) 0.5 units

 

As is the case with a few of my bets, the market has moved dramatically after I released them. Jorge Matteo is on that list. I was staring at him to lead the MLB in steals at 50/1 for weeks, and when I made an appearance in mid March broadcasting it, the number got cut in half the next day. All other books except for Fanduel held him between 20/1-30/1 before they corrected their price on him and dropped it to 25/1.

 

Matteo is an interesting name. He led the AL in steals with 35 a season ago. Despite the fact that he bats in the bottom of the lineup, and wasn’t exactly an on-base machine (.267 OBP), Matteo still managed to swipe a lot of bags in his first full season. Given what his number was, it was silly to not sprinkle it, but there is still value on 20/1-30/1. Just by pure regression to the mean, one would think his on-base percentage improves in 2023. 

 

There’s a lot of good names on the list to lead the league in steals, but for such a difficult market to handicap, I’m not in love with grabbing top of the market players. 

 

Dylan Cease Over 202.5 Strikeouts (-110)

 

CEASE DADDY. I was disgusted when he got hosed for the AL Cy Young a season ago. Total hatchet job. The fix was in. In any case, if there is one thing we know Dylan Cease for, it’s piling up the punchies. After notching 226 and 227 in the past two seasons, Fan Duel had an extremely low projection on him at 202.5 when DraftKings had a fair 212.5 out there. 

 

Cease pitches in one of the worst divisions in baseball, a la the AL Central. Of his 227 punchouts in 2022, 89 came from divisional opponents (39%). Perhaps his high walks rates have caused low projections on Cease, but the fact remains he has one of the most unhittable arsenals in the game, led by literally the best pitch in baseball - his slider. Not only did his slide piece generate a 37.5% K rate and 43.3% whiff rate, but it had a raw value (RV) of minus 33 (next best was Shohei Ohtani’s minus 24).

 

I expect he will improve on the command and consistency of not walking 78 batters and working tons of deep counts. If that holds up, he will throw less pitches, which in turn gets him more innings, which ultimately should provide more strikeouts. Bottom line, Dylan Cease should flirt with 230 strikeouts again.

 

Rafael Devers Over 28.5 home Runs (-110)

 

Raffy Taters managed 27 home runs in a year in which he only logged 141 contests. Except for the 2020 Covid season, he’s had 27 long balls in every season since 2019. Devers is one of the true mashers of the game we know today. Even on a bad, rebuilding Red Sox team, he is always a good bet to hit 30 bombs. But what really made me like this bet was FanDuel put out a special bet for players to hit 30 home runs, and at the top of the list was Devers at -750 to do so. That clearly doesn’t line up with his projected number here. If he can play even 145 games, we should see the Sox slugger flirt with 40 dingers.