The Weekly Taste: Best Futures Bets for the National League

Okay, okay. You got a taste of my best and favorite AL futures bets. We wouldn’t be complete without touching on the other league. Some of my biggest longshots this year come out of the National League. Gear up, and get ready to make enough money to put a down payment on your dream home!

 

JohnnyVTV’s Best NL Futures Bets:

 

Hunter Greene NL Cy Young (+10000) 

 

The Greene machine! In the middle of January, I spoke about how ridiculous the 100/1 price on Hunter Greene to win the Cy Young is. Not too long after my aggressive campaigning and dishing out to a couple of heavy bettors, Greene started to quickly drop in price. The representation of the number up top is what I got/played them at. 

 

Anyway, back to HG. This is a kid who off that bat profiles with top 15 stuff in the majors. He’s got a fastball that will consistently sit between 98-101, a slide piece that generated a 34.3% K rate and 38% whiff rate last season, and a developing change up. Sure, Greene got banged up last year for 24 taters and 48 free passes in only 125.2 IP, but that’s not uncommon for a young pitcher to go through. A lot of that was him still learning how to pitch, command his stuff, and sequence. Ultimately, what we need to focus on is what happened in his final six starts of 2022.

 

35.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 BB, 51 K’s is what happened from July 26th to the end of the year for the Reds’ sensation. Once he started figuring out what was working, he was pitching in another dimension. This stud has all the tools to become an elite pitcher in the MLB. Maybe I’m a year too early on him, but for the ceiling and upside he has, there was no way I couldn’t take a shot on him. And by the way, we have already seen playing on a losing team doesn’t matter, just look at Sandy Alcantara. 

 

Even at the 100/1 number, I was saying all along my fair price on him was 45/1, and it still is. 

 

Hunter Greene to lead MLB in Strikeouts (+6000)

 

Could you actually imagine? If both of these happen, let’s just say I’ll be going on a nice long vacation. As you can see, I’m fully invested in Hunter Greene this season. Even if you disregard him as a serious Cy Young candidate in only his second season, there’s no possible reason to dismiss him as a viable threat to lead the league in K’s. 

 

Greene’s biggest strength is the ability to punch people out. Even in only 125.2 IP, he compiled 164 ring ups as a rook. The short amount of innings was an issue because of his lacking control early in the year. In his first 16 starts, Greene only managed to notch six innings in three of them, compared to his final eight outings where he accomplished that feat six times. The point is we should see a lot more innings out of him in 2023. If he keeps that 11.7 K/9, which ranked top five among all MLB pitchers with at least 120 IP last season, then Greene can certainly flirt in the 240-250 strikeout range if those innings can creep up into the 185-190 territory. 

 

The 60/1 made no sense for his upside, and again, it was quickly cut down on FanDuel after I gave this play out. Even in the 40/1 range that it currently sits in, it’s a very strong value play.

 

Hunter Greene Over 178.5 Strikeouts (-115)

 

Here we go again. It’s a simple example of differing futures prices on sportsbooks. FanDuel gave me 178.5, while DK gave out 191.5. That’s a big margin. Either way, I think he goes over both of those numbers, but obviously I’m taking the more favorable one.

 

Greene had 164 K’s in only 125.5 innings of work last season, one would think he is in good shape to exceed both totals by a big gap this year. If I’m taking him as the MLB strikeout leader, then he has to hit this over along the way.

 

Julio Urias NL Cy Young (+2000)

 

This is another guy I like for the Cy Young this year at his current value. He’s probably a more realistic candidate than Greene, but regardless I think he has a shot. 

 

Julio Urias, at least for right now, is the new ace of the LA Dodgers, the best team in baseball. It took me a little while to make up my mind on him about just how legit he is, but I find him to be a good starter with an above average ceiling. Urias led the NL last season with a 2.16 ERA, and had a strong 2.1 walk rate to go with it. He’s a guy that’s won 37 games over the past two seasons (most in that span). Like how I explained with Luis Castillo, Urias pitches for an elite team that will score a lot of runs and play great defense for him, something that allows a pitcher to not stress and go more freely.

 

He’s not a sexy name but for 20/1, Urias is probably in the ballpark of 16-20 wins, and 2.20-2.35 ERA and about 180 K’s in 180 innings. It won’t be flashy, but at the end of the year, you’ll see his name among the leaderboard for some of the most key stats in the NL. He finished 3rd in voting last season, and had it not been for Sandy’s wire to wire dominance, he would have had a chance to split hairs with Max Fried. It’s too good to pass up.

 

Trea Turner NL MVP (+1200)

 

2022 was a bit of a “down year” for Turner in terms of the power department (21 long balls) compared to 2021 when he mashed 28 round trippers. But he still notched a career-high 100 RBI’s for the first time in his career, as well as 100+ runs (third time). The stolen bases, 27, were also the fewest of his time in the majors, excluding the 2020 Covid season.

 

In 2023, Turner is going to be the primary threat in the Phillies lineup with Bryce Harper shelved for the first couple of months. We know he is capable of hitting .300 or better (did it three times, and batted .298 in two seasons), hitting close to 30 bombs, and stealing 30 bags. The fact that Turner could have a season where he hits .300 (or better), 25+ Home Runs, steals 30+ bases, drives in 100 RBI’s, and scores 100+ runs leaves an insane ceiling that would surely have him as a top candidate. Playing in an already potent lineup, in what is an extremely friendly hitters’ park, won’t hurt at all either. Turner can simply do it all.

 

One of the biggest things for me is if he can help lead the Phillies to a possible NL East title, it adds to the narrative of his addition. He finally has the chance to be the star putting up big numbers on an already good team. As a preseason look, anything 11/1 or better is great value for a guy who checks all the boxes.

 

Jordan Walker NL ROY (+700) 

 

While Jordan Walker’s overall spring training stats might not jump out (.277 BA, 3 HR, 9 RBI), he was all the buzz. His incredible 6’5” 220 LB frame oozes upside to begin with, but when you factor in his mammoth power and ferocious bat speed, it becomes something else entirely. Because of the strong spring he had, it was the primary cause for his aggressive plummet in the market moving from about 7/1 to 4/1.

 

Fortunately, I was able to grab him before the dip happened, so I’m sitting pretty with a ticket on him. Walker will be in one of the best lineups in the NL, so hitting among guys like Nolan Arenado and reigning NL MVP winner Paul Goldschmidt should bolster his statistical profile. Furthermore, there is a narrative surrounding him now, so should he be in the 20 HR, 70 RBI range, I don’t have much doubt he’s going to be in a great position to take home the award. 

 

The one bugaboo in his offensive game is the high strikeout rate (226 K’s in 222 games across his entire minor league stint). That said, reigning NL ROY winner, Michael Harris struck out 107 times in 114 games last year, so it may not end up mattering. The high ceiling at 21 years old is there for Walker. 

 

At 4/1, it’s one I would hold out for in hopes a better number comes along. But keep your eye on him because the media loves him, and if he delivers, the 4/1 might still be extremely valuable.