The Weekly Taste: Best MLB Opening Day Bets (3/30/23)

‘Bout that TIME! Opening Day is upon us, and it’s hard to believe it has finally arrived. The sheer thought makes me quake in my blacked out timbs. Last season proved to be another successful handicapping campaign for yours truly, both in the futures market and game-to-game plays (55% +32.54u). As bettors though, enough is never enough. There is no settling, only looking for improvement. You’ve seen my futures plays for the upcoming season, so let’s take a stroll at some of my best bets for the card on Day 1.

 

Atlanta Braves (-245) @ Washington Nationals (+205) | Over/Under 8

 

The hopes are high for Atlanta, while Washington is just seeing what they have in this young roster. Coming off a 101-win, NL East clinching season, the Braves get to square up against the team they went 14-5 against last season right out of the gate.

 

This is probably my best play of the day, so let’s not over think it. Max Fried, the runner up for NL Cy Young, was marvelous a season ago with his 14-7 record, 2.48 ERA, and 170 K’s across 185.1 innings. Despite his 5.2 IP 5 ER disaster on Opening Day of last year, I believe there is more optimism this time around. He faces a lineup who has been gutted, leaving Joey Meneses as arguably the best player. Out of the 20 starts that the Braves won when Fried was on the bump last season, 15 of them were by multiple runs. His 21 quality starts (at least 6 IP with three earned runs or fewer) out of 30 outings signify what kind of consistency he brings to the table. With a loaded line up at his back, Atlanta should be in for a big first game,

 

The main reason I like Atlanta is because the Nationals announced the once upon a time stud, Patrick Corbin, as their pitcher. Corbin has been one of the biggest busts of the last decade since his move to the Nats. In 2022, he pitched to a 6.31 ERA, which probably would have been the worst in baseball had he qualified with enough innings. The rapid demise of Corbin is a case that should be studied by science. Anyway, he allowed 15 earned runs in 14.1 IP across four starts against ATL a year ago. Dealing with one of the best offensives in the MLB, this is not a spot that sits well for Corbin. I’m taking my chances with Atlanta winning by margin in this butter matchup.

 

Play: Braves RL -1.5 -140

 

Side Note: I played this on Tuesday at -125, but it’s still good up to -145 in my opinion. Despite my confidence, I typically am not a fan of laying two runs AND a vig of -150. If you want to have a little fun with this, you can take the Braves -3 for +150.

 

Cleveland Guardians (+100) @ Seattle Mariners (-120) | Over/Under 6.5

 

One of the games I am looking forward to the most. A stellar late night pitching duel in the Pacific Northwest over a few Espresso Martinis is what it’s all about for JohnnyVTV. Two teams that were both eliminated in the ALDS a season ago have high hopes for the new year. The always-pesky Cleveland team against my dear darling Seattle squad. Who has the edge in game 1 of 162?

 

You have seen my futures plays. In case you haven’t, you know I’m riding Seattle all the way to the finish line. With my AL Cy Young pick toeing the rubber on Opening Day, there’s no way I can bet against the M’s. Castillo saw the Guards twice last year, which resulted in 12 innings, 9 hits, 1 earned run, and 14 punchies. He was in total control in both starts as he only issued two free passes. Luis is a guy who can tally up a nice strikeout count, but he does not live or die by it. That’s a good thing when you face a Cleveland team that struck out the fewest times in the majors a season ago (1,122). While they added a little umph with Josh Bell in the off season, this is still a relatively uninspiring lineup once you get past superstar hot corner holder, Jose Ramirez. I’m looking for Castillo to keep them off balance with his gross change piece en route to a nice clean six innings of work.

 

Shane Bieber is still one of the premiere pitchers in this league. He was a cash cow in the first half of 2021 when I religiously played his K prop overs and first five unders. A bad shoulder injury post-All Star break had him looking like a shell of himself for the rest of that year. It carried over into the beginning of 2022 as he was trying to ramp his velocity and movement back up. But it came together after a couple starts. Even against a potent Seattle lineup, I expected Biebs to get his, which doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room in the scoring department. However, he is dealing with a much more difficult matchup than his counterpart is. This is a tight contest, but Julio Rodriguez will be the difference in this one.

 

Play: Mariners ML -120