MLB 3/30/23 - HR Predictions

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets, with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook*

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Cedric Mullins +750

Mullins is one of my favorite players in baseball, and I love his match-up on Opening Day. Corey Kluber is a shell of his former self, and I've actually already bet on the Orioles to win this game. He isn't a huge HR hitter with 16 last year, but he does have power and he does have one 30 HR season under his belt at the big league level. Mullins owns a .333 ISO against cutters, which is Kluber's most-used pitch to left-handed hitters. This is about the longest odds I would ever look at for a HR pick, but I think the Orioles could blitz the Red Sox today. 

Brandon Lowe +550

Lowe is more of a homerun threat than Mullins, with 39 longballs in his last fully healthy season. People may want to shy away here due to the lefty on lefty match-up vs Eduardo Rodriguez, but we can actually use that to our advantage. Despite batting from the left-side, last season Lowe sported the second-highest ISO on the Rays against southpaw pitching (.261). Furthermore, Rodriguez was a reverse-splits pitcher last season struggling with left-handed batters more so than righties. Lowe owns above-average power numbers against both of his two most-used pitchers -- fastball and sinker. Lowe also has three homers in his career of Rodriguez. 

Matt Carpenter +650

Caprneter was aboslutely insane for the Yankees in a small-sample last season, and this might actually be my favorite pick for Opening Day. He posted video game numbers against right-handed pitching for the Bronx Bombers a year ago, inluding a massive .343 ISO. There were legit questions about him being on the juice, and to be honest, I'm not sure if they ever got answered! That being said, he does have a 35+ HR season during his time with the Cardinals. German Marquez allowed a ton of power to lefties last season, and Vegas in general seems to be down on Carp tonight. His total bases prop is just 0.5, and I love the over on that. Carp matches up well with his pitch mix, and I won't be shocked if he finds success in his Padres debut. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)