MLB 3/31/23 - HR Predictions

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets, with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook*

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Manny Machado +450

San Diego has the highest team total on the board tonight at 4.5 runs - and I agree that it looks like one of the top spots for offense against Kyle Freeland. Colorado spoiled the Padres home opener last night, but I expect the Padres to bounceback tonight and their offense should get going against a pretty mediocre lefty. Machado is the best hitter in this lineup against left-handed pitching -- posting an insane .271 ISO in the split last season. He's been a lefty masher his entire career, and nothing has changed during his time on the West Coast. He also has the biggest sample-size on the team against Freeland -- sporting a 93.2 EV in 43 career PA. He has six doubles across those at-bats, but has yet to take him deep...I think that changes tonight. 

Kyle Tucker +425

This is a small Friday night MLB slate, but there are still a few hitters in great spots including Tucker. I think most people will be on Yordan Alvarez in this spot, but I'm going to lean on Tucker who matches up a bit better vs Lance Lynn's pitch mix. Lynn improved vs left-handed hitters a season ago, but has still been much better vs RHH than lefties in his career. Despite the improvements he made, he still allowed above-average power to the left side of the plate. Tucker has plenty of pop, and matches up well vs Lynn's fastball-heavy approach. He threw his fastball over 40% of the time in 2022 -- while Tucker owns the highest ISO on the Astros against the pitch (.274). 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)