MLB 4/1/23 - HR Predictions

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets, with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook*

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Matt Olson +215

This is extremely short odds, but I can't argue the spot against Josiah Gray. Gray allowed 22 homeruns to left-handed hitters in 2022, and we know that Olson has massive power. He owns the highest ISO on the team against right-handed pitching and feasts on fastballs, which Gray throws over 45% of the time. It's chalky, but I think Olson leaves the yard on Saturday with winds blowing out to center. 

Brandon Belt +550

Toronto is one of the best spots for offense on Saturday against Jack Flaherty, who has resally struggled the last year or so. He was pretty bad again this spring, and was beat up by lefties last season allowing over a .353 wOBA and .210 ISO. Toronto specifically features a ton of right-handed power, but they do have two capable lefties in Brandon Belt and Daulton Varsho. Belt has the second-highest fly-ball rate on the team at 46.5% and matches up extremely well vs Flaherty's pitch mix. He relies heavily on his fast-ball, to which Belt owns a massive .284 ISO. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)