Today's Taste: Best MLB Plays (4/3/23)

Opening Weekend in the MLB was a solid 6-3 +3.1u. Although there wasn’t a ton of great baseball on, it’s good to have the game back. Some of the better teams were complete no shows, so it’s hard to gauge them until we see they are capable of competing like a Major League ball club. There’s a little something to help us start the week in the green, so let’s see what the slate has to offer.

 

Jorge Matteo to steal a base vs. the Rangers (Yes: +210 | No: -295)

 

If you hopped in your time machine a couple weeks ago, you’ll remember hearing me dish out a Jorge Matteo to lead the MLB in steals at +5000. For a player who led the AL in swiped bags at 35 in 2022, the number was ludicrous. And, of course, after I made a few appearances explaining that, and wrote an article about it, FanDuel corrected the number to about 25/1. My guy, Jorge, has already grabbed four in just two games to start the year. Is number five in store on Monday night?

 

Assuming he is in the lineup, the short answer is yes. Texas is throwing their number four/five starter this evening, Mr. Jon Gray. While Gray is an okay-at-best starter, he was ranked 17th over the last two seasons in stolen bases allowed. Runners converted 23 of 27 tries on the Rangers’ hurler, good for a 0.852 success rate. The 6’4” Gray has a long delivery to the plate, allowing runners to get that extra jump. Better yet, if Jonah Heim is indeed catching him today, you have to like your chances even more. Heim allowed a whopping 57 stolen bases in 2022, which led the American League.

 

For the price of +210, it’s too good to not take a chance on considering Matteo already leads the MLB despite having only 10 plate appearances. With the rule changes regarding pick off attempts and pitch clock, Matteo will be a profitable player in this market all season. If you want another Oriole, the obvious is Cedric Mullins (Yes: +185). These two could wreak havoc tonight if they get on base. 

 

Play: Matteo to steal a base (+210) 0.5 units

 

Minnesota Twins (-122) @ Miami Marlins (-104) | Over/Under 7.5

 

What a weekend from the Minnesota Twins! They pulled the ole’ sweeparoo on their divisional rival the Kansas City Royals, outscoring them 11-4 in the process. For the new week, they take on a Marlins team that nearly got swept by the Mets in a four-game set. Can Miami get back in the win column?

 

It’s not elite, but the Twins have one of the better rotations in the MLB. On Monday they are throwing Tyler Mahle, who was fairly unimpressive a season ago with his 4.40 ERA. Mahle was much better on the road than at home last season, pitching to a 3.94 ERA and .201 OBA (4.71 ERA and .249 OBA at home). He will see a Miami lineup that only managed eight runs in four contests over the weekend. The key question is how will their offense fare against a revived Johnny Cueto?

 

Cueto had a nice bounce back season in Chicago in 2022 with a 3.35 ERA. He is still certainly capable of good outings from time to time. And against the Twins, he twirled three quality starts in four outings as a member of the Black Sox. While he has had success against the majority of this offense, can we really expect to see the same thing from him at age 37? My guess is probably not. Over his five starts in the month of September a year ago, he registered a 5.20 ERA, .322 OBA, and 37 hits allowed in only 27.2 IP. A fine outing is not out of the norm, but it’s hard predicting Cueto will be dominant out of the gate.

 

 The pitching edge in the pen also goes to Minny. I’m expecting a tight contest here, ending in a Twins victory. Minnesota should move to 4-0 after today.

 

Play: Twins ML (-122)