MLB Betting 4/3/23 - HR Predictions

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.25 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 3-5 +$175.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook*

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Oneil Cruz +450 (0.2u)

We are coming off three days in a row of hitting a HR pick, and I'm looking to extend that streak starting with Oneil Cruz against Kutter Crawford. I'm already on the over in this game with two bad pitchers toeing the rubber, and the Red Sox games have all sailed over their totals to begin the season. Crawford is a truly horrific pitcher against left-handed batters -- allowing a monster .325 ISO and 47% fly-balls in 2022. Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone on the team vs RHP, and we know he as video game-like power. More importantly, he's a dominant fastball hitter and Crawford relies on his heater over 40% of the time to left-handed hitters. 

Adley Rutschman +500 (0.1u)

Adley has been on fire to start his 2023 campaign, and already has left the yard once. He has another good chance at it tonight against Jon Gray, in a game that I think Baltimore can have some offensive success. Gray is a solid pitcher, but is more vulnerable to lefties than righties which is good news for Adley -- who is the best hitter in this lineup regardless. Gray throws over 50% fastballs, which is a big reason why I'm on Rutschman in this spot. He's an elite fastball hitter -- posting a .435 ISO and 95 mph EV against the pitch during his short MLB career. 

Vinnie Pasquantino +700 (0.1u)

If you read any of my content last year, you know how much I love Vinnie P and the Royals have a really good young player on their hands. I'm actually bullish on the KC offense today despite the perceived bad match-up against Jose Berrios. Berrios is coming off a really bad season, in which is strikeouts dipped to below 20% and he was really beat up by lefty batters. Pasquantino is the best lefty hitter in the KC lineup, and he matches up very well against Berrios' pitch mix. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)