Today's Taste: MLB Best Bets (4/4/23)

Soooo close. The Twins came through in sweat free fashion. And it just so happened I picked the wrong Oriole to swipe a bag, but if you took a little of Cedric Mullins, you brought home another winner. Tuesday features a slough of aces on the bumpski. Let’s dive into it.

 

Minnesota Twins (+120) @ Miami Marlins (-140) | Over/Under 7

 

In a similar fashion to Eminem, Shady’s back. Back again. Well, at least when it comes to dipping in on the Twins for the third day in a row, and this matchup on back to back days. Minny has been pumping so far to start their ‘23 campaign. A little 4-0 never hurt anybody. Can they make it 5-0?

 

Reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy “Not Sandra” Alcantara has the ball this evening. While he was not particularly sharp (5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 BB, 2 K) to the Mets in his first go around, there is reason to think this time will be better as he looks to halt Miami's three game losing streak. Though it’s not realistic to expect the same things from him as 2022, Sandy had an incredible 1.64 ERA and .191 OBA at home last year. A lot of the Twins success in the last two games were because they took advantage of weaker pitching matchups, but the Royals held them to two runs a piece in each of the first couple contests. Today, Miami has a significant advantage on the mound.

 

Starting for Minnesota is Kenta Maeda, a name I have not heard in a long time. The last time he pitched was in August of 2021, thanks to Tommy John that cost him all of last year. Even before the injury, Maeda registered a bloated 4.66 ERA and 3.8 K/BB ratio, as well as yielding 16 home runs in 21 starts. The fact that we think this guy is going to come back from the dead after a year and a half and dot the Marlins is a bit far-fetched. This is exactly what a struggling Miami team needs right now. They have only scored four runs over the last three contests, but I have a feeling that changes today. By the way, I can’t expect Maeda to get a long leash after such a layoff. There should be a lot of bullpen arms for Minny.

 

We’re getting Sandy on a bounce back at -140. That’s like a solar eclipse, a rare occurrence. I know the Marlins are far from a daddy wagon, but there will be times this year you can pick and choose your spot on them. I’m taking this one.    

 

Play: Marlins ML (-140)

 

Los Angeles Angels (+144) @ Seattle Mariners (-172) | Over/Under 7

 

Hello, my old friend. The Seattle Mariners have hit the skids over the last few games. Since my AL Cy Young pick shut down Cleveland on Opening Night, the M’s have found ways to lose games. It’s not that surprising they are struggling to start the year, that is if you watched them as much as I did last season. Their ace, Luis Castillo, is back on the mound, and it’s time to right the ship.

 

Castillo had everything working in his first outing. The fastball looked good, sitting between 93-96. The sinker was inducing some ground balls,and his stellar change up was providing the extra umph he needed to keep the Guardians off balance. Plus he issued zero walks across six shutout innings. Battling an Angels team that has found its power stroke during this three-game win streak (26 runs scored), Castillo will need to feature pristine command once again. The main culprits to the Angels’ success have been Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, Logan O’Hoppe, and Shohei Ohtani. So the key for Luis will be keeping runners off the base paths, and getting the change up to have the fading away effect. In his only start against LAA in 2022, Castillo delivered a strong 6 IP, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9K performance.

 

One of the other reasons I want to fade the streaking Angels is because of who they are throwing. Jose Suarez was below average a season ago with a 3.96 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He pitched to a 3.92 ERA and .250 OBA against Seattle in 2022 over four appearances. Plus, the M’s were a little better against LHP than RHP last year (.233 AVG and .711 OPS). More specifically, if you tally their main starters' career against Suarez, they combined for a .370 average with four bombs,15 RBI’s, and a 1.076 OPS. Suarez is a decent pitcher, but after a big opening series win for the Angels, it’s time for Seattle to bounce back.

 

I can’t justify laying -172 for the M’s on the ML, and I don’t love the home run line in this one, so the best bang for your buck is a double result. Seattle should win this, and I expect Castillo to fan at least half a dozen batters as the Angels led the MLB in team strikeouts in 2022 with 1,539. 

 

Play: Luis Castillo 6+ K’s AND Mariners ML -125