MLB Betting 4/4/23 - HR Predictions

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.25 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 3-8 +$135.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook*

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Joey Gallo +450 (0.1u)

Our streak of hitting HR picks had to come to an end at some point, but that means that we have the opportunity to start a new one tonight! I’ve been very pleased with what I’ve seen from Gallo this season – he’s chasing pitches out of the zone less than he ever has and that’s resulted in him seeing more fastballs than ever before. Obviously, he’s a fastball hitter with a career .362 ISO against the pitch. He also excels against fast pitches, while Sandy Alcantara is one of the hardest throwers in baseball. I think we could be in for a big season from Gallo – and to top it off he’s had previous success against Sandy going 3-8 with a double, triple and an average exit velocity of 99.7.

Salvador Perez +300 (0.2u)

Unlike our friend Gallo, Perez doesn’t have a great history against Yusei Kikuchi but we are dealing with a very limited sample-size. Overall, Perez is the best hitter on the Royals against left-handed pitching, including in the power department posting a .231 ISO last season. Kikuchi has good strikeout stuff, but was mauled by righties in 2022 allowing a .279 ISO and 50% hard-contact. Kikuchi throws a ton of heaters, relying on the pitch 50% of the time to righties and Perez is one of the best fastball hitters in the AL. Over the last few seasons, he’s posted a monster .413 ISO against the pitch. Salvy is hitless in his career against Kikuchi, but I expect that to change tonight in the best hitting weather on the slate. It’s warm in KC today, with winds blowing out to left at 20-25 mph.

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)