Today's Taste: Best MLB Plays (4/7/23)

Yesterday only ended up featuring one play since the Arkansas/Ole Miss game was postponed. Vandy ML ended up coming home, nearly giving me an ulcer in the process. There are a ton of games on my college slate today. To hear those, check out Breaking Bet at 1pm ET on Friday. I have one MLB play, so here it is. 

 

Hunter Greene Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts @ Philadelphia Phillies

 

My guy Hunter Greene gets his first true test of 2023 against the defending NL champion Phillies. Although he wasn’t particularly sharp in his first outing against the Pirates, he still tallied eight strikeouts in 3.1 innings. Realistically, that number should have been about 11 or 12, but there were some horrendous calls from the umpire where he got squeezed. Nevertheless, he managed to hit his first over of the season. 

 

Thus far the Phillies have struck out the 10th most times in the majors (59), and have the sixth-highest K rate (26.5%). Although Philly touched Jacob DeGrom in his first start for five runs in only 3.2 innings, the Rangers’ ace still managed seven K’s in that time frame. Martin Perez last Sunday night also managed seven in a strong outing. In the last series against the Yankees, Philly saw Domingo German and Gerrit Cole pile up eight punchies a piece. Additionally, this is a team that has the second-worst walk rate in the MLB (5.4%). That tells me there is a lot of swing and miss in this offense right now to go along with some poor plate discipline. 

 

Greene has one of, if not the most, electric heaters in the game. If he can manage to keep the pitch count somewhat favorable, he should be able to bring this home if he can tally five innings. He’ll have to keep the walks to a minimum as well. I went on SportsGrid last night and dished this play out at +120, but it’s taken considerable steam since then. I would play this to -125.

 

 

Pick: Hunter Greene O7.5 K’s -105