MLB Betting 4/10/23 - HR Predictor

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.3 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 4-9+$193.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook*

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Franmil Reyes +450 (.1u)

Reyes already has two homeruns this season, and he'll be searching for another one tonight against Andrew Heaney. Heaney is what he is as a pitcher at this point, sometimes he looks like a Cy Young candidate and other times he looks like a Triple A pitcher. It's been the same story with him for a few seasons now, and he's always allowed a lot of power to right-handed bats. The reason I like this match-up so much is how reliant he is on his fastball. Heaney throws his heater over 60% of the time to right-handed hitters which is great news for Reyes. He's one of the best fastball hitters on the Royals, and has massive power to go along with it. He also has one career HR off Heaney already. 

Hunter Renfroe +370 (.3u)

Renfroe is my favorite play for today, in a match-up against Patrick Corbin tonight. Renfroe seems to have found his swing, going 5-9 with two doubles and two homeruns over his last two games. We know that Patrick Corbin struggles with right-handed power, so this Angels lineup could be a nightmare for him with their ability to stuff in eight right-handed bats tonight. Renfroe has some of the best splits on the team vs southpaws including a .244 ISO and 45% hard-contact rate. Corbin uses his sinker over 45% of the time to righty bats, which is why I like Renfroe so much tonight. He has video game-like numbers against sinkers including a massive .423 ISO. He's also 6-21 in his career off Corbin, with a pair of longballs. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)