MLB Betting 4/11/23 - HR Predictor

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.3 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 6-9 +335.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook*

Note: After Franmil Reyes wasn't starting on Monday, I posted in Discord that I was betting Corey Seager for my second HR pick. 

---

Corey Seager +400 (0.2u)

Coming off a huge night with HR picks, I'm going back to Corey Seager who I pivoted onto with Franmil Reyes not starting. Seager continues to look locked in at the plate, he's top-30 in barrels/PA and also top-15 in average exit velocity. He finally left the yard last night, and he has another great match-up against Jordan Lyles. Lyles has struggled recently against left-handed hitters allowing a .225 ISO and 42.5% hard-contact. His most-used pitch in the split is his fastball, which is great news for Seager who is the best fastball hitter in the Rangers lineup. He's posted a monster .488 ISO against the pitch, and I think he has some of the best odds for a HR again on Tuesday night. 

Jared Kelenic +470 (0.1u)

Wrigley Field features the best non-Coors hitting weather on the slate tonight with warm temperatures and 10 mph winds blowing straight out to center. I think there's value in a few guys from this game tonight, including Cal Raleigh and Jared Kelenic. I'll take the longer odds of Kelenic, who hit a monster homerun late in last nights game and has maybe found his swing. He matches up really well with Hayden Wesneski's pitch mix, and I think there will be a lot of offense from this game tonight. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)