MLB Betting 4/12/23 - HR Predictor

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.3 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 7-10 +385.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook*

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Paul Goldschmidt +320 (0.3u)

Obviously we are accustomed to high-scoring games in Coors Field, but today looks especially tasty with a 13 run O/U. It's very warm weather in Colorado today, with winds blowing straight out to center and two bad pitchers toeing the rubber. Jose Urena has a legitimate case for worst pitcher in baseball, and Goldy looks to have carried over his MVP form from last season. He's barreling the ball a lot, and actually hitting it harder than he did in 2022. Urena throws a lot of sinkers to both sides of the plate, while Goldy is a notoriously succesful against the pitch. He owns a .252 ISO against the pitch, with 47% hard-hits. I think we see multiple-HR's from this game today, but Goldy is my favorite option to leave the yard. 

Pete Alonso (0.2u +370)

There's good hitting weather in New York today as well, with winds blowing out and I like the match-up for Alonso against Blake Snell. Snell has only allowed one HR this season, but he's allowed 7 runs through two starts and looks like one of the guys that has been most negatively affected by the pitch clock. He made comments before the season started about how he was going to struggle with it, and he's looked very uncomfortable to begin the season. We know that Alonso feasts on left-handed pitching, but even more so against fastballs which Snell throws over half the time to right-handed batters. Alonso has one career HR off Snell already, and I think there's a strong chance we see number two on Wednesday. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)