MLB Betting 4/13 - HR Predictor

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.3 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 8-12 +419.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook*

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Giancarlo Stanton +290 (0.3u)

I wanted to write-up Aaron Judge for the first time this season...but, I can't bet anyone below +200 to hit a HR. I refuse. So, I'll settle with his teammate Giancarlo Stanton in a strong match-up with Joe Ryan. I'm actually fairly high on Ryan long-term, but he has struggled with power during his early career mainly because he has such strong control of his pitches he routinely challenges hitters. He does this with his fastball a lot, and then relies on his slider which is his second most used pitch to righties. Stanton has been locked in at the plate to begin this season, ranking top-ten in barrels/PA and average exit velocity. He smashes both fastballs and sliders -- and it just happens that Yankee Stadium features the best hitting weather on Thursday. It's 80+ degrees with 10+ mph winds blowing straight out to center. 

Tyler O'Neill +390 (0.2u)

O'Neill homered on Wednesday, and is showing signs of heating up as we approach the end of the first month of the season. Hitting the ball hard has never been an issue for him, but it's nice to see that his 56% hard-contact rate is still 13% higher than the 43% rate we saw in 2022. His average exit velocity is up so far this season as well, and I like the match-up today against Vince Velasquez. VV has always allowed more power to same-handed batters I feel, and his ISO vs right-handed hitters since last season is well over .200. He throws mostly fastball/slider -- two pitches that O'Neill owns huge power splits against. I don't buy into small sample-sizes like this - but it is worth noting that he has two homeruns in just 4 PA against VV in his career. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)