MLB Betting 4/17/23 - HR Predictions

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.3 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 8-18 +$284.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook*

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JT Realmuto +550 (0.2u)

I wanted to write up Kyle Schwarber here, but I can't stomach paying 2/1 on any player for a HR prop. That being said, we can still attack Lance Lynn who has allowed SIX homeruns through three starts. He's worse against left-handed hitters than righties, but he still allows 38% hard-hits to right-handed hitters. More importantly, two of those six homers have come vs righties so it's not impossible. Realmuto may have found his swing this weekend, after a slow start to the season he homered on Sunday. I love the way he matches up with Lynn's pitch mix -- everyone knows that he relies heavily on his fastball while Realmuto has the highest ISO on the team against the pitch (.370). 

Kris Bryant +340 (0.25u)

Bryant is the perfect example of why you shop around lines -- he's +340 on DKSB to homer today but is +205 over on FanDuel. You can actually probably find even better odds than +340 on some other books as well. Overall, the Rockies are at home in Coors Field and have a fantastic match-up against the corpse of Rich Hill. Hill has also served up six longballs this season, while Bryant is the best hitter on the Rockies against left-handed pitching. He has huge power splits vs southpaws -- and I think he has one of the best chances overall at a HR on Monday night. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)