Today's Taste: Best MLB Plays (4/17/23)

It’s a new week, which means it’s also a new start. There are several aces on the mound today, so let’s see where we can find the best value on the board! Coming in hot.

 

Hunter Greene Over/Under 6.5 K’s (Yes: -142/No: +112)

 

As is the case with strikeout props, there are differing totals and prices hanging out there. Another one I was looking at had the line out to 7.5 K’s in case you were wondering. Here we go. My guy Hunter Greene has the ball this evening against the hottest team in the MLB, the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa has been one of the best teams at not striking out this year, but can HG buck the trend?

 

Greene is coming off arguably one of his best outings as a pro. Against an elite Atlanta Braves lineup on Wednesday, he logged his first quality start of the season. As he tossed six innings of three-run ball, my preseason NL Cy Young longshot notched 10 punchies and walked NO Batters. The only other time he has had 10 K’s to no walks was last September against the Cardinals. And of the seven hits he allowed, most were weakish contact that just found a lane out of the infield. HG outdueled Spencer Strider. With his command looking sharp, and pitch selection keeping hitters off-balance, I said to myself he will win the Cy Young this year if this is how he continues to pitch. Now he has to carry it over to the 14-2 Rays. 

 

Tampa is among the top teams in baseball at not punching out, both in total strikeouts and K rate. A large part of that, in my estimation, is because they have faced incredible weak pitching. The Tigers, Nationals, A’s, and Red Sox don’t exactly feature any Cy Young contenders. Toronto is the best they have seen thus far. Jose Berrios dazzled them for their first loss of the year, and punched out six over five frames. Yusei Kikuchi shut them down with six shutty and nine K’s. If Kikuchi can do it, so can Greene. The Rays have a couple of true weapons in Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena with a hot streak from Brandon Lowe, but nothing too scary for the Reds’ ace. As a matter of fact, he struck this same lineup out nine times over six innings a season ago.

 

I’m taking the over here because he should be able to carry that momentum over to this start. Tampa is a fun story, but they are a team that can be overmatched by a guy like Greene. The 6.5 is a solid number as well, even if there is a bit of a vig to it.

 

Pick: Hunter Greene O6.5 K’s -142

 

Toronto Blue Jays (-120) @ Houston Astros (+100) | Over/Under 8

 

This is going to be a fun series. Two of the top AL contenders battling it out will be a nice litmus test early on. The Jays are currently standing strong at 10-4, while Houston has some work to do at 7-9. We’ll see Kevin Gausman v Cristian Javier tonight. Who ya got?

 

Gausman was stellar in his last outing against the Tigers. His three runs and 10 punchies over eight innings was marred by a late two-run tater by somebody who will be bagging groceries in a couple of weeks. But nonetheless, Gaus continues to impress logging three straight quality starts. On Monday night, he will see a shell of the Astros lineup he faced last season where he shoved for two runs over seven innings with 10 K’s. As is the case with Houston right now, they are virtually garbage with no production outside of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, who have combined to drive in 33 of the team’s 74 runs. If he is careful and concise against those two boppers, KG can have a very strong evening against this reeling offense.

 

Cristian Javier was on the list as a potential breakout player for 2023, in fantasy, betting, and real life. Early on, he’s been up and down. Not exactly bad, nor good. This is his first season truly transitioning into a pure full-time starter role. He has a ton of swing-and-miss prowess in his arsenal, which is one of the reasons he was a popular sleeper this winter. Javier will see his first true test of the new season against a Toronto team that is lighting up righty pitching (.281 avg/.792 OPS), and have been stallions on the road (.288 avg/.773 OPS). Making timely pitches, and keeping traffic on the bases to a minimum will be paramount in this matchup.

 

This is an extremely difficult call for me, but I have to go with the Jays. They are a better overall team right now with an extreme offensive edge and decisive advantage on the mound. Houston winning at home would not surprise me at all, but the way Gausman is throwing gives me way more confidence. I have two approaches on how to play this one.

 

Pick: Blue Jays ML -120

Pick: Kevin Gausman 7+ K’s AND Blue Jays ML