Today's Taste: Best College Baseball Bets (4/20/23)

The second half of the College Baseball season is in full swing. Now is the time where teams start deciding who exactly they are. There are still a lot of games to be played, but this is generally when a bubble team will start taking charge and rattle off a lot of wins looking to get hot before the tournament. I think there may be a few of those squads lying around. Tonight we have two games on the dockett, which features three teams inside the top six. 

 

#5 Arkansas Razorbacks (-180) @ Georgia Bulldogs (+150) | Total: 13

 

Here we have a matchup of two SEC teams heading for much different destinies. On one hand, Arkansas is one of the eight or nine teams that I really believe has a chance at winning it all. After making the final four a season ago, there is no reason this program can’t return for a deep run. Then we have Georgia. A team who has some young talent, but is not ready to compete in this conference right now. Here’s the best way to attack this opener.

 

Knowing the pitching matchups is one of the most important parts of understanding and betting this sport. The hard part is the lack of information. Teams don’t always reveal who they will be throwing until it’s five minutes before game time. The Hogs are keeping their rotation this weekend a mystery, but did give us what we wanted to know ahead of Thursday’s tilt. To no surprise, the team has said it will be defacto ace, Hunter Hollan, on the bump (as projected). Hollan has been a huge piece for the Arky rotation with his 6-1 mark, 2.89 ERA, and 45 K/15 BB ratio across 48 innings of work. The Razorbacks have also won seven of the nine outings he started. Coming off 12 innings of one earned run ball over his last two outings against Ole Miss and Tennessee, HH is set up nicely against UGA.

 

Similar to Ole Miss, the Bulldogs struggled mightily when they squared up with Vandy, who deploys the very rare all-lefty starting rotation. During that weekend sweep in late March/early April, the Commodores outscored UGA 29-10. Though Georgia did tally a solid 19 hits in those three games, Vandy’s starters only allowed 12 of them. The point is they struggled against the lefty pitching, which is a huge matchup advantage for Hollan. There are only two, maybe three worries in this offense if you’re Arkansas. Charlie Condon has been hitting the cover off the ball this season (.444 avg, 1.439 OPS, 17 HR, 53 RBI), so he clearly needs to be pitched to carefully. Then Connor Tate (.369 avg, 1.164 OPS, 12 HR, 38 RBI) is also a threat, who forms a dangerous 2-3 combo with Condon. Even Parks Harber can get you (11 HR, 37 RBI). 

 

With the Bulldogs dealing with a lot of pitching issues in both the rotation and bullpen, they will be trotting out freshman Kolten Smith and his 4.80 ERA in lieu of typical game one starter, Jaden Woods. Smith isn’t a starter, so this might be a patch-work pen game. Either way Arkansas should have a big advantage here this evening. The Razorbacks should win comfortably, covering the -1.5 runline. I also do believe this game stays under 13. However, I'm keeping it simple.

 

 

Pick: Arkansas ML -180

 

#3 Florida Gators (+100) @ #6 South Carolina Gamecocks (-130) | Total: 13.5

 

This right here is arguably the best series for the entire weekend. Two teams ranked inside the top six, who both have a legit chance to win the whole thing. Both are on my list of eight or nine teams that could pull it off. This series will feature some offensive DADDY WAGONS, complemented by stud pitchers. Truly a coin flip series, I’m telling you how I see it going down.

 

South Carolina is coming off a bad series loss to Vanderbilt. After taking game one, SC put up a quick first inning four-spot over their opponents in game two, only to relent the lead and lose 8-5. Last weekend marked the first time the Gamecocks lost a series in 2023. Can they bounce back?

 

The Gamecocks are nicknamed the “Rakecocks” thanks to their nation-leading 88 taters, and seventh-most runs scored (349). They have five players in double figures with home runs and an OPS over 1.000. This offense has tons of fire power led by the likely freshman of the year, Ethan Petry (.424 avg, 1.366 OPS, 18 HR, 56 RBI). Despite facing some high-powered quality starters for the Florida Gators, there should be opportunities to attack Florida’s Friday guy (game one starter), Brandon Sproat. 

 

Sproatzilla turned down a third-round draft selection from the Mets last summer to return for one more year. Although he has a lot of talent with a high octane arsenal, consistency is not Sproat’s game. His 4.96 ERA and 25 free passes in 49 innings is the ugly. The pretty is his 69 punchies and only 31 hits allowed. Florida’s starter has given up at least four runs in three of his last four outings, and has yet to face as potent a lineup as South Carolina’s. While there is always a chance he can come out and shove for seven scoreless, one would think SC can tag him for at least a few. More importantly, the Cocks should have a big advantage in the later innings featuring a huge liability with the Gator bullpen that is without their primary closer Brandon Neely (serving a four-game suspension). 

 

Florida also represents one of the elite offenses in the country. A team that is second in slugging percentage (.589%), third in round-trippers with 82, and fourth in runs scored (361). The primary culprits responsible for the meat of these stats would be arguably the best 2-3-4 lineup combo in the NCAA with Wyatt Langford, Jac Caglianone, and Josh Rivera. Langford is likely a top five pick in this summer’s MLB draft, and in my opinion this generation’s Mike Trout. Caglianone is the college version of Shohei Ohtani, as he leads the country with 22 ta-ta’s (and might be the first pick in the 2024 MLB Draft) to accompany his 99 MPH heater. Rivera has broken out with a .400 average, 14 HR’s, and 52 RBI’s, and could be a first-rounder this summer. It’s very possible this Gators’ team has four guys selected in the first round. This is what SC’s projected top 20 pick Will Sanders will deal with tonight.

 

Sanders has been far from somebody who looked like a top pick this season. His 5.03 ERA and inability to log more than five innings has hindered his growth and draft stock. Like Sproat, the upside is obvious, but the consistency has been weak. This is an outing where I expect him to answer the call like he did against LSU a couple weeks ago. Before a lengthy rain-delay derailed his three-inning, no earned run start, Sanders looked like the guy we expected. Furthermore, the SC bullpen is an advantage over Florida’s, so in a pinch that’s the obvious side. I’m expecting this showdown to be tight in the late innings, one that goes in favor of the Rakecocks.

 

I’ll say this though, whoever wins tonight, I would bet on the other team tomorrow. Then game three is a toss up.

 

Pick: South Carolina ML -130