MLB Betting 4/21/23 - HR Predictor

Welcome in to a new article for 2023...the HR Predictor! This will be a daily article, where I use my own research to highlight a few names I think are in a great position to hit a homerun on each days slate! These are low unit bets -- between 0.1 and 0.3 units -- with typically high-odds and we will only need to hit one or two a week to make some money! If you're interested in all of my MLB betting and prop picks, plus access to our PrizePicks Predictor, you can sign-up by clicking HERE. With that being said, let's dive in...

UPDATED HR RECORD: 10-21 +$398.00

Note: This unit scale is $100 = 1 unit. 

*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook*

---

Trayce Thompson +350 (0.2u)

The books have nuked the HR odds on this game today due to big winds blowing out at Wrigley Field - we hit Cody Bellinger here yesterday (happy 4/20) and are going back to the well with this game and Trayce Thompson. We want to target right-handed power against Drew Smyly, and Thompson gives us the best odds of all the Dodgers right-handed bats. Smyly is not a bad pitcher, but he relies heavily on fly-balls which can get him into some trouble when the winds are blowing out in that stadium. Thompson owns above-average power splits against both of Smyly's most-used pitches and I think we will see multiple homeruns from this game. 

Gleyber Torres +475 (0.2u)

Yusei Kikuchi is one of our favorite pitchers to target homeruns again, and I will be doing so again today with Gleyber Torres. Per usual, I would love to pick Aaron Judge here but I can't stomach paying 2/1 on a HR prop. Torres gives us much better odds -- and still owns a .252 ISO against left-handed pitching since the start of last season. Kikuchi has allowed a .271 ISO to righties over the span - and Torres does have power against fastballs which is important when facing Kikuchi. He's homered off him previously, and it's important to note this game is at home in Yankee Stadium. 60% of Torres' career HR's have come at home as opposed to on the road. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)